Ukraine claims Russia launched ICBM at eastern city of Dnipro

Kyiv has accused Moscow of firing an ICBM at Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region early Thursday. However, two Western officials later told CNN the weapon appears to have been a shorter-range ballistic missile — not an ICBM.

The main difference between an ICBM and other types of ballistic missile is only in their respective ranges. As the name suggests, ICBMs can travel thousands of miles — crossing continents — whereas ballistic missiles have shorter and intermediate ranges.

But rather than focusing on the range of the missile, what matters instead is the explosive power packed by the missile — known as its “payload” — Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, told CNN.

Although Russia’s strike was non-nuclear, the missile appeared to carry a “MIRV” payload, meaning it used multiple warheads to strike separate targets.

MIRVS, or Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles, were developed during the Cold War to permit a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets.

Although the nuclear payload appeared to have been replaced with a non-nuclear one in this case, the use of the MIRV technology was intended to send a message, Hoffmann said.

Ukraine’s military accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday, though a Western official has told reporters otherwise, and the Kremlin declined to comment.

It comes in a week of creeping escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Here’s what we know:

• A large attack: Russia was “massively attacking” the Dnipropetrovsk region on Thursday morning, the head of the Ukrainian region’s military administration said. Two people were injured after houses were damaged, and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities was also damaged in the attack, Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram. There were no reported casualties.

• Ukrainian allegations: Ukraine’s air force accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile in an attack on the city of Dnipro on Thursday morning. CNN has not been able to verify the claim.

• A Western rebuttal: A Western official has told reporters that the missile launched by Russia was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM. The official declined to further characterize the missile, saying that its impact was still being assessed.

• Russia stays silent: The Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov The Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Kyiv’s accusation on Thursday morning. Later, the spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova, was heard during a news conference Thursday being ordered not to discuss a major strike on Ukraine.

• A show of force: If Russia did indeed use an ICBM in its attack, it could be a message to the West that it has greater capabilities than previously displayed. This week has seen significant military operations and policy changes in both Ukraine and Russia, including both US and British-made missiles being fired into Russia by Ukraine. This prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to update Russia’s nuclear doctrine — in a nuanced way, but still updating its policy to lower the threshold for use. The UK’s Defense Intelligence warned that Ukraine’s front lines are “less stable” than at any point since the earliest stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than 1,000 days ago on Thursday.

• Other countries could be targeted: A spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow could target a major Western military base in Poland, as Russian officials continue to ramp up their rhetoric in an escalatory week. And Hungary’s Defense Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky said the country will install an air defense system near its border with Ukraine, according to Reuters.

A Ukrainian security source provided photos of the debris from the attack on Dnipro, Ukraine, on November 21.

CNN has obtained images of debris from Russian missiles fired at Ukraine overnight.

A Ukrainian security source provided photos of the debris from the attack on Dnipro city. Kyiv has accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine, which would likely mark the first time Moscow had used such a weapon in more than 1,000 days of war.

The fragments pictured do not necessarily all belong to one missile, the source said.

A Ukrainian security source provided photos of the debris from the attack on Dnipro, Ukraine, on November 21.

A Western official cast doubt on whether the missile was an ICBM. CNN has contacted weapons experts to review the photos with a view to providing independent analysis on the type of missile used.

Ukraine’s front lines are “less stable” than at any point since the earliest stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than 1,000 days ago, the United Kingdom’s Defense Intelligence has warned.

In an intelligence update Thursday, the agency said, “Russian territorial advances in Ukraine have accelerated through 2024,” bolstered by “the Russian leadership’s tolerance for casualties” and having more troops at its disposal than Ukraine’s military.

“The frontline is now less stable than at any point since the opening stages of the conflict,” said the agency, which is part of the UK’s Ministry of Defense.

Some background: The warning comes shortly after the Biden administration approved sending anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, in another major policy change this week seen as aiming at shoring up Ukraine’s faltering frontlines.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Laos on Wednesday that the decision was motivated by Russia’s changing tactics on the frontlines.

“They don’t lead with their mechanized forces anymore. They lead with dismounted forces who are able to close and do things to kind of pave the way for mechanized forces,” he said.

Austin said Ukraine’s military needs “things that can help slow down that effort.”

In an unusual departure from her ordinary format, the spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, took a phone call while she was fielding questions from reporters in a regular press briefing.

During that call, a male voice was heard telling her to not to discuss a major strike on Ukraine.

Watch how the call played out in real time:

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Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson ordered not to discuss reported ICBM strike during news conference

00:14 - Source: CNN

Ukraine said Thursday it was still trying to determine the type of missile that Russia had fired at it, in the latest escalation in the 1,000-day-old war.

Ukraine’s air force earlier accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the city of Dnipro on Thursday morning. Countering this, a Western official told reporters on the sidelines of a summit of Asian nations’ defense ministers in Laos that the missile launched by Russia was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM. The reason for the discrepancy with the Ukrainian military on the description of the missile was not immediately clear.

The strike proves that “Russia does not seek peace,” Tykhyi said. “To the contrary, it makes every effort to expand the war.”

Hungary will install an air defense system near its border with Ukraine, the country’s defense minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky said Wednesday, according to Reuters.

“We still trust that there will be peace as soon as possible, through diplomacy instead of a military solution,” Szalay-Bobrovniczky said in a video posted to Facebook, Reuters reported.

Hungary has long been critical of Western support for Ukraine, labeling those backing Kyiv as “pro-war.”

Last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that “the right thing to do is end the war as soon as possible.”

On Thursday, the country’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said that the Hungarians were happy with the result of the recent US election due to President-elect Donald Trump’s stance on the conflict.

“Many among us hoped for big change thanks to American voters and victory by the pro-peace candidate. …. We’re very pleased with the outcome,” Szijjártó said.

The deck house of the American ballistic missile defence base to be integrated into the "Aegis Ashore" missile defense system, on the day of its inauguration, November 13, in Redzikowo, Poland.

A spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said Moscow could target a major Western military base in Poland, as Russian officials continue to ramp up their rhetoric in an escalatory week.

The air defense base opened in the Polish town of Redzikowo on the Baltic coast on November 13. Known as “Aegis Ashore,” the site holds US ballistic missiles and is part of a larger NATO missile shield designed to intercept incoming missiles.

Zakharova’s comments are the latest in a series of escalatory remarks from the Kremlin, following major policy shifts from Ukraine and its Western allies this week.

A strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region has injured at least 26 people, a Ukrainian official said Thursday.

Serhiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, said at least 10 of the wounded are in hospital and two women are in serious condition. One has suffered cuts to her head, the other has a shrapnel wound to her abdomen.

The strike damaged an administrative building as well as five apartment buildings and three vehicles, he added.

In a post on Telegram, Lysak shared images showing a building with a partially collapsed roof and another with shattered windows.

Elsewhere in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine reported a “massive” overnight attack and accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has responded to the Russian strike on Dnipro, claiming that the use of intercontinental ballistic missiles shows that President Vladimir Putin is “so afraid, he is already using new missiles.”

Ukraine’s military accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile in a Thursday morning attack on the eastern region, while a western official said the missile was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM.

It’s currently unclear if there are any casualties from the strike.

Zelensky added that expert examinations are underway on the type of missile but said that the weapon used had “all the characteristics: speed, altitude - of an intercontinental ballistic missile.”

Video obtained by CNN shows the moment missiles struck the Dnipro region early Thursday morning.

CNN has geolocated the video to Dnipro, but it’s unclear for the moment what type of weapon was used for the attack.

Ukraine accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday morning. A Western official said it was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM.

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Video appears to show the moment of impact of Russian strikes on Dnipro, Ukraine

00:20 - Source: CNN

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia, on April 4, 2023.

The spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry was heard during a news conference Thursday being ordered not to discuss a major strike on Ukraine.

In an unusual departure from her ordinary format, Maria Zakharova took a phone call while she was fielding questions from reporters in a regular press briefing. She answered the call and was clearly heard being told by a male voice not to discuss a missile strike in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, which Kyiv earlier accused Moscow of targeting in a missile strike Thursday.

It was not clear whether the hot-mic incident was staged, or whether Zakharova unintentionally revealed information about the overnight strike on Ukraine.

The exchange also appeared to reveal that the complex previously known as Yuzhmash was the target of the strike. Ukraine has said that Russia used an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to target the city of Dnipro. A Western official said Thursday the missile launched by Russia was a ballistic missile, but not an ICBM.

Later, Russian state media TASS asked Zakharova for more details about the exchange.

“Before the briefing, there were questions about contradictory materials on the Internet. I checked with experts whether this was our subject. The answer came during the briefing – the Foreign Ministry does not comment. So there is no intrigue,” Zakharova told TASS.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a visit to a military training area to find out about the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system, at an undisclosed location, in Germany, on June 11.

Ukraine has batteries of the Patriot missile defense system supplied by the United States and Germany that are capable of intercepting incoming ballistic missile warheads, according to the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Patriot system is designed to engage incoming warheads either with an exploding warhead of their own, or with kinetic interceptors – so-called “hit-to-kill” technology, which destroys the incoming warhead by striking it directly.

Patriot interceptors have a vertical range of about 20 kilometers (12 miles) and defend an area of about 15 to 20 kilometers around the battery, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Kyiv reported its armed forces have successfully used the Patriot system to intercept incoming Russian Kinzhal ballistic missiles in 2023. But the Kinzhal is an air-launched ballistic missile, fired from MiG-fighter jets and is an easier target than a warhead from an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Remember: Ukraine has only a limited number of Patriot missile defense systems and batteries. Some cities, like the capital Kyiv, enjoy greater protection than others.

The Dnipropetrovsk region has been a frequent target of Russian bombardment in recent months.

It borders the partially occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and has become a huge hub for people who have fled areas that are now under Russian control.

The region is now home to more than 400,000 internally displaced people. Dnipro, the fourth largest city in Ukraine, is an important center of life in the eastern part of the country.

It is relatively close to the frontlines, yet still fairly well protected by air defenses. That, plus its transportation infrastructure links to the rest of the country make the city a key hub in Ukraine’s war effort.

Ukraine has launched drones at three regions in Western Russia, according to local Russian officials and the country’s Defense Ministry.

The Russian Defense Ministry said air defense systems had “intercepted and destroyed” two Ukrainian drones over the Rostov and Volgograd regions in an attack on Thursday.

The governor of Astrakhan also announced that an air alert had been activated in the northern parts of the region. The reports of air sirens in Astrakhan come after Ukraine’s military accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the region early Thursday.

US Major General Mark MacCarley

Russia’s choice to attack Dnipro could be a warning that it can also target the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv, retired US Major General Mark MacCarley told CNN Thursday.

Ukraine fired missiles made by the US and Britain into Russia for the first time this week.

MacCarley, who was speaking from Kyiv, said that there were sirens in the city in the early morning that corresponded to the launch of the possible intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

A Western official has said that the missile launched by Russia as part of an attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro was a ballistic missile, but not an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The official, briefing reporters on the sidelines of a summit of Asian nations’ defense ministers in Laos on Thursday, declined to further characterize the missile, saying its impact was still being assessed.

The reason for the discrepancy with the Ukrainian military on the description of the missile was not immediately clear.

The firing of an ICBM – which has a significantly longer range than other types of ballistic missiles – could represent the use of a new type of missile by Russia in the conflict with Ukraine, and would be a significant escalation.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defenses shot down two British-French-made Storm Shadow missiles, acknowledging Ukraine’s use of the longer-range weapons.

The ministry said Thursday its air defenses had “shot down two British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, six US-made HIMARS rockets” and 67 drones.

It did not say when the attacks occurred.

Russian military bloggers and Western outlets reported on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched the British-French-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time.

The attack targeted the village of Marino in Russia’s Kursk region. A video posted on Telegram, which was verified and geolocated by CNN, shows explosions audible from Marino on Wednesday.

Separate images circulating on Telegram showed fragments of a Storm Shadow missile. The fragments in the photo were confirmed to be from a Storm Shadow missile by weapons expert Trevor Ball, a former senior explosive ordnance technician for the US Army, who reviewed the image for CNN.

A Russian BTR-82-A armoured personnel carrier, Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system units and Tigr-M all-terrain infantry mobility vehicles drive along Red Square during a rehearsal for a military parade in central Moscow, Russia, on May 5.

Russia’s possible use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a message to the West that it is has greater capabilities than previously displayed after a week of significant military operations and policy changes in both Ukraine and Russia.

The West has for some time been concerned at a reciprocal Russian escalation in the war. This week, both US and British-French-made missiles have been fired into Russia by Ukraine, after US President Joe Biden gave Kyiv permission to use longer-range American missiles.

In turn, President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine — in a nuanced way, but still refined their policy to lower the threshold for use.

There is no indication that the potential ICBM that Russia fired at around 5 a.m. local time was a nuclear weapon, and there is no evidence that a nuclear explosion was witnessed overnight. Such an event would have elicited a very different reaction in Kyiv and the West.

But it is also notable that the US, Greek, and Spanish embassies in Kyiv closed on Wednesday. It could be possible they had been notified of Russia’s possible ICBM launch and took precautionary measures; a nuclear power, when using a missile like this, might choose to warn other nuclear powers, so they don’t mistake it as a different kind of launch.

So what we know now is very little: a Ukrainian air force statement that an ICBM was used, a different set of sounds in Dnipro. But the effect remains palpable. Russia has tried and perhaps succeeded in sending a message by firing likely a new type of conventional missile to get through Ukrainian air defenses.

This escalation doesn’t necessarily mean a sea change in Russia’s capabilities, or in the outcome of the war, which was already going in their favor.

The key questions we do not have an answer yet to are: What exactly was this missile, what is it capable of doing, and what did it do?

Russia may be “trying to send a message” to Kyiv’s Western backers in a week of creeping escalation, a military analyst said after the Ukrainian military accused Moscow of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine for the first time.

Although an ICBM can be used to deliver a nuclear warhead, Thursday morning’s attack on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region was not nuclear.

But the use of the powerful long-range weapon may have been intended to send a signal to the West, he said, after Ukraine this week fired American ATACMS and British-French-made Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russia for the first time.

But it is “important” that Ukraine and its Western allies “don’t back down,” he said.

“If indeed this is a signal to the West to back down and an implicit nuclear threat, then if we do back down, the Russians are only going to do this again – and again, and again, and again,” he said.