German elections: CDU’s Merz looks set to be next chancellor as far-right AfD surges

Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next German chancellor after his conservative CDU tops the vote in elections, as the far-right AfD party surges into second, exit polls project.

Polls in the snap election are closing at 6 p.m. local time, with first exit polls expected immediately after voting stops.

Here is what to watch for when those first numbers come in:

How is AfD doing?

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expecting to see its best result yet. Opinion polls ahead of the vote have consistently showed AfD second with around 20% of the vote, the strongest polling for a far-right party since the end of World War II.

But unless the opinion polls turn out to be significantly off, the AfD is likely to remain in opposition because of the unwritten rule of German politics that blocks far-right parties from taking part in the government.

How bad is SPD’s decline?

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is widely expected to lose ground in this election – the key question is by how much.

Having become the largest party in the 2021 election, opinion polls indicate it looks set for a downward swing in votes by around 10 points. That would put it not only behind the AfD, but fighting it out with the Greens for third.

Which coalition is most likely?

Unlike other governments, such as in the US, coalitions are a natural part of German politics.

An electoral system known as proportional representation, established after World War II, makes it almost impossible for a single party to win power. The exit polls could give a good indication of the shape of the next German government.

Germany’s socialist Die Linke, or Left Party, has enjoyed a late surge in the polls ahead of Sunday’s elections, following a fiery speech against fascism by its leader.

The Left Party – whose roots can in part be traced back to the communist East Germany’s ruling party - looks set to comfortably reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, latest polls show.

It follows powerful speeches delivered by its rising star leader, Heidi Reichinnek, in January, which quickly gained widespread attention online.

“I say to everyone out there: don’t give up, fight back, resist fascism,” the 36-year-old told parliament as she called for action against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and those who work with it.

“To the barricades!” she declared passionately, showing a tattoo of Rosa Luxemburg, the symbol of the revolutionary left, on her left forearm. The speech, which has now been viewed more than 6.5 million times on TikTok, electrified supporters.

Her speech was delivered after Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), broke a longstanding taboo by relying on AfD votes to pass a motion aimed at cracking down on migration. The move, which shattered the mainstream parties’ anti-AfD “firewall,” sparked large protests across Germany that month.

Since that pivotal moment, Die Linke has seen a rise in support. Just weeks ago, the party’s poll numbers were below the 5% threshold, but a recent YouGov poll put the party on 9%.

While much attention has been on the far right in Germany’s election, a rival radical part could also make headlines too.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was formed in 2024 by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former Left Party lawmaker and a veteran of Germany’s hard left.

Wagenknecht has described herself as a “conservative leftist” - in naming her party after herself, an unusual move in German politics, she’s hoping to capitalize on her personal prominence.

It attracts former supporters of the Left Party as well as, surprisingly, those of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and is largely popular in Germany’s eastern states.

It takes a left-wing stance on economic issues, and advocates for job security and higher wages.

However, when it comes to immigration, the BSW is closer to the AfD in its policies. In fact, there is considerable overlap between the two parties’ policy agendas, and they share an interest in weakening Germany’s political mainstream. Still, the BSW has said it will not work together with the AfD.

The BSW has also called for an end to sending arms to Ukraine, and has a Russia-friendly stance.

The party will be hoping to pick up at least 5% of the vote on Sunday - thereby enabling it to enter Germany’s parliament.

The Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) deputy parliamentary leader has told CNN that the German population are ready for change, and that consequently support for the far-right party will continue to rise.

“The German are voting for a change, they want to have a change in politics, this is what the CDU is promising and this what the CDU will not deliver,” Beatrix von Storch told CNN at the AfD’s election evening party in Berlin.

“You know when a opposition party like our party, doubles their numbers from one election to the next, it shows that something is dramatically going wrong and people want something else,” she continued.

“This is why they support AfD even though we have got a tremendous fire against us.”

Lower Saxony, Damme: Costumed voter Nico leaves the privacy of the polling booth at a polling station in Damme, Lower Saxony.

The German parliamentary election on Sunday falls on the same day as many regional and municipal carnival celebrations and some German voters are taking advantage of the festive atmosphere and opting to cast their ballots in some rather unorthodox outfits.

Several people in costumes were photographed at a polling station in Damme in Lower Saxony, where a carnival celebration billed as “the largest in northern Germany” is taking place alongside Sunday’s election.

The carnival was founded in 1614 and attracts some 10,000 visitors every year, according to its official website.

Voter Linda wore her costume to the polling station on Sunday.

Carnivals can be a big deal across Germany and to ensure a smooth day, the Federal Returning Officer issued a special carnival-related guidance ahead of the vote.

The four-page document outlines the rules for attending a polling stations in a festive attire. Costumes are allowed, but anyone wearing a face mask or a heavy make-up may be asked to remove them so that the election officials can establish their identity.

Voter Henrik also showed up in his costume.

However, the guidance makes it pretty clear that election officials overseeing the voting in polling stations should probably stay away from costumes. “When choosing their clothing, they must ensure that the impartial performance of their office is not called into question. Therefore, it is best to avoid wearing costumes,” the rulebook says.

And while the guidance reminds officials that there is no law prohibiting drunk people from voting, should a reveller turn up intoxicated to a degree where they are causing disruption, it is ok to remove them from the polling station until they behave.

A man wearing a carnival costume votes in Cologne, Germany.

A string of attacks in Germany, including a recent car-ramming incident in Munich, have fueled the country’s sensitive migration debate.

Last week, a car ploughed into demonstrators in the Bavarian capital, leaving two dead and scores injured. The suspect is a 24-year-old asylum-seeker from Afghanistan, whom authorities believe may have had Islamist extremist tendencies.

The deadly incident in Munich followed other recent attacks thought to have been carried out by asylum-seekers due for deportation, all of which have reignited Germany’s debate on migration.

In the wake of a deadly knife attack in Solingen last year, the German government tightened its asylum regulations and resumed deportation flights to Afghanistan for the first time since the Taliban’s takeover of the country.

The AfD in particular has tapped into anti-migrant sentiment, with co-leader Alice Weidel repeatedly calling for “migration change.”

Changing attitudes: Germany has shifted much further to the right than it was in the days of former Chancellor Angela Merkel. During the migrant crisis of 2015-16, Merkel’s government threw open Germany’s doors, with Merkel declaring at the time “Wir schaffen das,” or “We’ll manage it.”

Germany’s liberal migration policy, in comparison to those of its neighbors during these years, became known as “Wilkommenskultur,” or “Welcoming culture.”

Now, with a surge in support for parties with a tough stance on immigration, and Berlin in September introducing new controls at all of Germany’s land borders, the country’s welcoming approach to migrants feels like a distant memory.

Voters arrive at a polling station to cast their ballots on Sunday in Berlin, Germany.

German voters have – so far – turned up in higher numbers than during the last parliamentary election four years ago, early federal and state data show.

The German federal returning officer said that as of 2 p.m. local time, voter turnout stood at 52% nation-wide. That’s significantly above the 36.5% recorded at the same time of the day four years ago.

A higher turnout early in the day was recorded across multiple states on Sunday, including North Rhine-Westphalia, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt.

Election officials in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, said that by 2 p.m. local time, some 63% of voters have cast their ballots. They said this was a higher turnout compared to four years ago.

In Saxony-Anhalt have, 52.6% of voters turned up by 2 p.m. local time, according to the state’s election officials. That was also significantly higher than the 36.7% recorded at the same time in 2021.

The state returning officer in Thuringia, a heartland of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, said that 59.2% of eligible voters had voted by 2 p.m., compared to just 34.5% at the same time four years ago.

But not all states are showing the same pattern — in Saxony, 39,6% of voters showed up by 2 p.m., just over three percentage points above the 36,4% recorded at the same time four years ago.

US President Donald Trump walks to the residence after arriving to the White House on Saturday in Washington, DC.

If there was one stand-out moment in this election campaign, it was Elon Musk’s giant floating head appearing on a screen at an Alternative for Germany rally in the eastern city of Halle.

His appearance was a surprise for the 4,000 strong crowd and the reporters covering the event… but it probably shouldn’t have been.

Elon Musk had been wading into this election from early on, and he clearly picked a side with the AfD. In Halle he told the crowd “the future of civilization” was hanging on the vote.

The AfD have tried to hitch their wagon to Musk and harness his star-power. Speaking to CNN in Halle, party leader Alice Weidel told CNN “I wish [Elon Musk], Donald Trump and JD Vance all the best blessings for their next tenure”.

Last week at the Munich Security Conference, Vance delivered a withering attack on many European allies but also singled out Germany.

He attacked the ‘firewall’, the unwritten rule of German politics which freezes out the far right in decision making.

He said “democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There’s no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don’t”.

Just hours later news emerged that Vance had shunned a meeting with Olaf Scholz, instead opting to meet with Weidel.

Will it matter? How much influence the two have had on an electorate worried about domestic matters remains to be seen.

But the Trump administration has certainly fueled the AfD’s legitimacy claims – and they have been running with it.

Eligible voters sit in the polling booths at a polling station on Sunday, in Wernigerode, Germany.

Unlike other governments, such as the US, coalitions are a natural part of German politics.

An electoral system known as proportional representation, established after World War II, makes it almost impossible for a single party to win power.

In Sunday’s election, it is very hard to see an outcome where the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz do not emerge victorious.

However, due to this system, the CDU will likely have to form a coalition with one, or more, of the other parties. The question is who?

Merz has categorically ruled out working with the AfD, meaning that a coalition of the two big centrist parties – the CDU and the SPD – is one possibility.

The CDU and SPD have already governed together four times since WWII. However, with Merz’s attempts to move the CDU further to the right than it was under Merkel’s leadership, the two parties could clash on issues such as immigration and welfare spending.

If the CDU needs to form a three-way coalition in order to make up a majority, it could choose to govern with the SPD and either the environmental Greens or the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP).

Co-leader of the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) Alice Weidel speaks to the media in Berlin, Germany, on January 31.

At 46, Alice Weidel is the youngest of all the candidates in this year’s election. It is the first time since its foundation that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has nominated a candidate for chancellor.

Before Weidel went into politics, she studied economics and has a doctorate in international development. She worked for Goldman Sachs and lived in China for a few years, where she learnt Mandarin.

Weidel has quickly risen to become the party’s public – some say, friendly – face. She has sought to distance herself from the more radical wings of the AfD and worked to clean up the party’s public image.

Weidel is in a civil partnership with a Swiss woman who was originally born in Sri Lanka and has two children. Her private life is somewhat at odds with the AfD conservative stance on many issues.

Since the turn of the year, she has openly courted the new US administration. Talking directly with Elon Musk and JD Vance.

Populist policies, particularly around migration, are her main campaign points. She openly talks about a policy called “remigration” which would see deportations of migrants from Germany.

She told CNN in an interview in January “we have no borders. Imagine that a state, a country like Germany, doesn’t have any borders. So, the country doesn’t decide on who comes in and out.”

Germany’s struggling economy will be front of mind for many voters in Sunday’s election.

The world’s third-largest economy has barely grown since the pandemic. It shrank both in 2023 and last year, posting the first back-to-back annual contractions since the early 2000s. And this year, it is set to grow by a paltry 0.3%, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.

Polls show the economy is a major concern for voters, many of whom will remember the boom times: Between around 2005 and 2019, Germany was thriving, propelled by Chinese demand for its exports, a relatively frictionless global trading environment and cheap natural gas from Russia.

But the world has changed dramatically since then.

China’s economy has slowed, while its carmakers, such as electric vehicle manufacturers BYD and Xpeng, have snatched market share from Western rivals, like Volkswagen. Natural gas has become more expensive in Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which is weighing on Germany’s energy-intensive industries.

And now US President Donald Trump is imposing new tariffs on imports into America and threatening more levies still — a headache for Germany’s exporters in particular as the US is their single biggest market.

“A world in which free trade is not the… dominant economic mantra is problematic for Germany,” Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington, DC-based think tank, told CNN.

You can read more on how Germany’s economic woes are playing into the election here.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz casts his vote at a polling station on Sunday.

The leaders of Germany’s main political parties have all cast their votes on Sunday, hoping they can beat expectations and secure a strong position for the inevitable post-election negotiations.

The leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and frontrunner to be next chancellor Friedrich Merz voted in the western German city of Arnsberg, his home town. He was accompanied by his wife of nearly 44 year, judge Charlotte Merz.

Olaf Scholz (SPD), Federal Chancellor and candidate for Chancellor, casts his vote at the polling station on Sunday.

The current German Chancellor and the leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) Olaf Scholz and his wife and fellow SPD politician Britta Ernst cast their ballots in the city of Potsdam, near Berlin.

Scholz’s SPD is widely expected to be heading for a defeat in the snap election that was triggered when he lost a vote of confidence in the German parliament, the Bundestag.

Scholz’s own future as the head of the party is uncertain – one poll last September ranked Scholz as the least popular German chancellor since reunification and there were rumors before the election that his party wanted Boris Pistorius, the current defense minister, to replace him as the party’s top candidate.

Adel, 33, software engineer, a Syrian migrant who obtained German citizenship a few months ago, said “the difficulties with German-American relations right now are quite pressing.

“The migration debate is complicated. I migrated to Germany and I can sense the pressure even from people who are not from migration backgrounds. Somehow I can see a point of view from both sides so maybe some middle ground can be made.”

Stefan, 64, a consultant, says the migration debate in Germany is “important, but overrated.”

“It’s a right-wing issue that produces votes for the extreme parties. In the end, I believe it is something we need to handle, but we need to have migrants coming into this country for economic reasons.”

Mark, 48, a healthcare worker, believes the most important issues in the German election are “not the ones being discussed.”

“We need big reforms in healthcare, for nursing, for the care of elderly. It’s important to do something for the environment and we need to have a strong Europe.”

Ralf, 57, who runs an app for international recruiting: “I think the most important issue is to keep the country together and Europe together.

“I’m pretty sad not only about the US involvement but their view on Europe, on Ukraine, on Putin. I cannot understand this and I’m really afraid of it.”

Matilda, 22, a university student: “I think migration is a problem that’s been made a lot bigger by the media.”

Matilda believes the focus should be more on helping migrants integrate properly into German society. “We definitely have problems in that regard with integration, we could do a lot better.”

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), addresses delegates during a party congress in Berlin on February 3.

Friedrich Merz, 69, is the favorite to become the country’s next chancellor. But who is he?

Merz – who was elected to lead the CDU in 2022 after two failed bids for party leadership – is known for having shifted the party to the right, with a tougher stance on migration, and a strong economic mind.

An old-school conservative, Merz wants to rid the CDU of his long-time rival Angela Merkel’s more centrist legacy.

He was born in 1955 into a conservative, Catholic family in the North Rhine-Westphalia town of Brilon, in central Germany, and joined the CDU’s youth wing while still in school. He entered politics full-time in 1989, when he was elected to the European Parliament at the age of 33.

After serving one term as an MEP, Merz, a married father-of-three, was elected to the Bundestag – Germany’s parliament – and established himself as a leader in financial policy. In 2003, he famously argued that German tax rules should be simple enough to calculate on the back of a beer coaster.

He left politics altogether amid a feud with Merkel, before rejoining in 2018 after she announced her decision to step down from Germany’s helm.

Merz has advocated strongly for backing Ukraine as it fights Russia’s full-scale invasion – even calling for Berlin to provide German-made Tauris missiles, something the Scholz government has refused.

Read more on Merz and his policies here.

Alice Weidel, left, and Tino Chrupalla, co-leaders of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), stand on stage during a party congress in Riesa, Germany, on January 11.

This evening is expected to be a monumental night for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Polls have consistently put them in a clear second place since the election was called. The fact they could gather some 20% of the vote would mark a huge shift in the German political spectrum. In 2021 they only received 10%.

Recent regional and European elections could be a barometer of their continued rise.

They finished second overall in the EU vote, and regionally, in their heartland areas of East Germany, the state of Thuringia became the first German region to elect a far-right party since the Nazi era.

The party is stridently anti-immigration and has been designated as “suspected extremist” allowing increased monitoring from intelligence services.

Why they won’t be in power: The difficulties for the party though will come after the results and how the next German government in formed.

They are likely to demand a role in government. But an unwritten rule of German politics essentially freezes out any mainstream co-operation with far-right parties – it’s known in German as the brandmauer – firewall.

Earlier in the election campaign Friedrich Merz tested the firewall’s stability by passing some non-binding migration legislation with the AfD. That move sparked mass protests across Germany.

The most likely outcome is that they will be frozen out of any coalition but be certain they will cry foul play.

German voters are at a generational crossroads. Where they go will direct Europe’s future path.

Until recently the nation that rebuilt itself after the disastrous Nazi era was, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, not just the moral compass for the continent but its reliable economic engine too.

All that seems to be on the line, as like many of Europe’s formerly grand northern nations, their economy is hurting, migration is rising, their population looking to right wing populists, specifically in Germany, the AfD, for solutions.

Almost 200 years ago German diplomat Klemens von Metternich, who spent his life trying to balance Europe’s powers and keep Russia at bay, famously said “When France sneezes, the rest of Europe catches a cold”.

Were the former prince alive today he may well say the same of his homeland.

Should the the far-right Alternative for Germany deliver a shock, outperform hyped expectations and get a hand on wheel of the German state, others in Europe’s right, like France’s National Rally and the UK’s Reform party will rejoice. So too will the Trump White House.

Europe’s populist right spells trouble for European unity, which is in turn bad news for a Ukraine in dire need of its near western allies to stay in lock step bolstering it against Russia.

As a quirk of history the same year Metternich was worried about France’s sneezes, Ukraine was briefly forming as a nation, for the first time united under the blue and yellow flag they still use today.

Today’s reality is, Europe’s flux never stopped, it’s powerhouse nations like Germany are as pivotal now as two centuries ago meaning they’ll be watched closely across the globe, and particularly keenly in Kyiv.

Election posters for various parties are seen on lamp poles in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday.

Hello and welcome – we’ll be bringing you the latest with millions of Germans taking to the polls today in national elections.

The snap vote is being held following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition in November and are almost certain to bring about a change of government.

Nearly 60 million people are eligible to vote in Europe’s most populous nation and polls close in about two hours time. Whoever wins has the task of reviving Germany’s moribund economy - and face the reality of the Trump administration moving away from long-held security ties between the US and Europe.

Here’s a brief guide to the vote.

Who’s running? There are seven key parties in all. The center-right Christian Democratic Party (CDU), and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) are led by Friedrich Merz and represent Germany’s traditional conservatives. Then there is the centrist Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by current chancellor Olaf Scholz. Also in the running are the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the environmental Green Party, the business-focused Free Democratic Party (FDP), as well as The Left (Die Linke) and the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

What do the polls say? Polls in the lead up to Sunday’s election put the CDU in a clear lead ahead of the AfD, by a margin of 8-10 percentage points. The AfD is second ahead of Scholz’s SPD on about 20%, most polls suggest. But all mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, meaning it will likely not be part of any new government. Single parties rarely win majorities in Germany so the CDU would need to build a coalition.

What are the key issues? Voters are hoping the new government will be able to kickstart Europe’s largest economy, which has barely grown since the pandemic, buffeted by competition from China and surging energy prices from the war in Ukraine. Immigration too looms large and has been a central feature of the AfD’s campaign. A string of attacks, most recently a car-ramming incident in Munich in which a mother and daughter were killed, have fueled debate on domestic security and Germany’s migration policies.