Europe has done it again. Despite French President’s Emmanuel Macron’s reluctance to give the UK a long Brexit extension, the EU leaders have agreed the apparently interminable process can be delayed until October 31, with a school report on Britain’s behavior in June.
And while everyone is focusing on that Halloween deadline, it’s really the June date that’s the more significant.
Just three weeks ago, May told lawmakers in the House of Commons that she could not “as Prime Minister” delay Britain’s departure from the European Union beyond June 30. After that, Britain would be obliged to send representatives to the European Parliament, where a new session begins on July 1.
Theresa May, remember, staked her premiership on delivering Brexit within the original two-year timetable of the Article 50 process. If she can’t get it done by then, something will have to give.
It almost doesn’t matter what that is – a cross-party deal that allows a Brexit deal to pass, a second referendum to break the deadlock, a general election that finally sees off May. What’s clear is that European leaders are done with the current impasse where the UK can’t get its act together to leave, yet the EU is unwilling to force it out.
“The choices we now face are stark and the timetable is clear,” British Prime Minister Theresa May tells an early-morning news conference in Brussels.
“It’s very clear that we will continue to abide by our obligations … We will continue to abide by our duty of sincere cooperation.”
“I’m clear that we should all be working now in the UK to make sure that we can find a way forward in Parliament … to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement,” she adds.
May repeats several times that she had hoped UK Parliament would ratify the Withdrawal Agreement. But she continues to stick to her main lines – that Britain can still leave the EU earlier than October 31 if her deal with the EU is passed by lawmakers.
Theresa May says the ability of Britain to break the extension if it passes a deal was her “key request of my fellow leaders.”
The British Prime Minister adds that the UK will not have to take part in European elections if parliament passes her Withdrawal Agreement.
If the UK can agree a deal by May 22, the country will not have to hold European elections.
“I know that there is huge frustration from many people that I had to request this extension,” she adds – but repeats that the UK must leave in a “smooth and orderly way.”
“We must now press on with pace” in achieving a consensus. She confirms she will be making a statement in the House of Commons on Thursday, and talks would be continuing with the Labour party.
“Nothing is more pressing or more vital” than finding a conclusion to Brexit, she says.
EU Council President Donald Tusk says he is expecting “sincere cooperation” from the UK during the extension period, adding that “we have only good experiences with Theresa May’s government.”
“I trust what Theresa May has declared today,” he adds.
He also says the UK will be a full member state during the period, maintaining all of its rights. “The UK will continue its sincere cooperation as a full member state, with all its rights, and as a close friend and trusted ally in the future.”
Juncker plays down fears that the UK will cause trouble within the EU during its extension period, joking that this is “nothing new.” He adds that the ability of Britain to block decisions taken by the bloc is limited.
EU Council President Donald Tusk urges the UK, “please do not waste this time.”
Speaking after announcing an agreed extension until October 2019, Tusk says the “course of action will be entirely in the UK’s hands.”
“I think it’s always better to have a piece of something than a lot of nothing,” Tusk adds in response to a question about whether enough progress can be achieved in six months. He adds that he is hopeful that a breakthrough can occur in that time.
The review in June is “only to update us on the progress” regarding the ratification process. “June is not for decision about extension,” he adds. “My intention is not to discuss but only to inform he member states about the current situation.”
“It’s not a negotiation session,” Juncker adds.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker says the summit was a “sometimes difficult” meeting.
“In June, when we meet again, we will not be re-negotiating among ourselves or with the UK,” he says. “The Withdrawal Agreement must be respected in its entirety. We don’t want the Withdrawal Agreement to be called into question.”
“There will probably be European elections in the United Kingdom. That may seem a bit odd, but rules are rules,” he adds.
Juncker also laments the lack of attention from the media about achievements from the EU that aren’t related to Brexit.
EU Council President Donald Tusk confirms the details of the flexible extension in his news conference in Brussels – an October 31 end date, with a review period in June.
He says the extension is shorter than he expected, but adds it can be ended early if Britain passes its Withdrawal Agreement.
“It can also reconsider the whole Brexit strategy,” he adds – but notes the Withdrawal Agreement is confirmed.
“Until the end of this period, the UK will also have the possibility to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit altogether,” Tusk says.
EU Council President Donald Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker are giving a news conference, setting out the details of the Brexit extension.
Follow it here.
EU Council President Donald Tusk has confirmed the flexible October 31 extension has been agreed by the UK, writing that it gives Britain time to “find the best possible solution.”
Tusk made no mention of the June review date in his tweet – though full details of the plan will be revealed at his news conference, which is expected imminently.
The Brexit delay has been delayed.
EU leaders agreed to a six-month Brexit extension a short while ago.
But the promised news conferences from Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, and then Theresa May, have still not materialized.
The wait is reportedly due to some minor quibbles from May’s camp to the plan presented to her by European leaders, it is understood. An EU official has told CNN that the two camps “are sorting detail.”
The long night in Brussels isn’t over just yet.
The EU has agreed to delay Brexit until Halloween – but British Prime Minister Theresa May must still accept the plan.
Officials are “still in suspense” over whether May has taken up the EU on the offer, a diplomat tells CNN.
EU Council President Donald Tusk tweeted he would be meeting with May to present the offer, and May will need to decide whether it’s a trick or a treat from European leaders.
Photographers and journalists are anxiously waiting outside the UK’s briefing room, where Theresa May is expected to speak shortly.
May has arrived back at the EU Council to meet with Donald Tusk and give her agreement to the October 31 delay to the Brexit process.
Cameras are being neatly lined up in order to grab a good spot for her news conference.
Malta’s Prime Minister, Joseph Muscat, has said on Twitter that a October 31 extension is “sensible,” and will allow Britain to “finally choose its way.”
EU leaders have agreed to grant the UK an extension to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, an EU diplomat has told CNN.
It means Britain will not crash out of the EU without a deal on Friday, as it had previously been on course to do.
The six-month delay makes it almost inevitable that the UK will have to hold European elections in May, unless Prime Minister Theresa May can force a deal through Parliament before then.
May had asked for a far shorter extension, until June 30. The lengthy postponement demonstrates a lack of faith within Europe that she can forge a consensus behind her Withdrawal Agreement in that time – but could give hardliners within her own party enough time to attempt to force her out of her post.
French President Emmanuel Macron had been the major opponent to granting Britain a long extension, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel and many other leaders are understood to have favored the approach.
EU Council President Donald Tusk has confirmed that European leaders have agreed to an extension – without providing details. He will now meet with Theresa May to put the plan to her.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has arrived back at the European Council summit.
It was expected she would be summoned back when an extension had been agreed by EU leaders.
May will be presented with the details and have to agree to the plan before it is confirmed.
While the 27 remaining EU leaders debate the fate of her flagship policy, Theresa May is keeping herself occupied.
May left the room hours earlier after making her pitch for a Brexit extension until June 30.
Since then, she has been nearby the European Council with her team, waiting to here what her counterparts decide.
It’s possible she could be called back on short notice at any moment – if the leaders are nearing a consensus.
For the second time in a matter of weeks, EU leaders are talking Brexit late into the night – and showing scant regard for the print deadlines of British newspapers.
That means the first editions of Thursday’s papers are filling in the blanks – and a few are getting creative in doing so.
The Metro, a free newspaper read by commuters, has found a way to tie in one of the day’s other big stories – the first ever picture of a black hole – with the ongoing Brexit chaos. As it happens, the news conference unveiling the groundbreaking image was also in Brussels, across town from where EU leaders are debating a Brexit extension.
Several papers lead on speculation swirling around Westminster. The Guardian – also enamored with the historic image from space – reports that Theresa May will attempt to hold onto power for another year. The i newspaper has the same story, as does The Times.
Any such plan will infuriate many hardline Brexiteers in May’s own party – and the Telegraph reports that she will be given a month before Conservative MPs make a move and attempt to oust her.
Emmanuel Macron has told European leaders he isn’t yet convinced that Britain should be granted a long extension to Brexit, an EU diplomat has told CNN.
The French President, still locked in talks with other EU leaders, said he has “heard nothing yet that has convinced (him) that it might be useful to go beyond June 30,” the date requested by the British Prime Minister but widely dismissed by many leaders as too short a period.
The diplomat said the discussions are still in the “first phase,” so a date for a delay has not yet been agreed and talks are “ongoing.”
“There’s no date in the conclusion document yet. So they’re still explaining their initial position. He’s saying June 30 now, but doesn’t mean it will be his last position. It’s just where he’s coming from,” the diplomat said.
It’s after 11 p.m. in Brussels and as the summit continues, talk has turned to a hypothetical question: what happens if French President Emmanuel Macron doesn’t play ball and crashes the talks?
Disclaimer: we have received no intel to suggest that this could happen. Further disclaimer: the situations below are both entirely hypothetical and, in some instances, unprecedented. That said, let’s get into it.
If Macron does decide to give the UK a firm “non” to any kind of extension, then Brexit day is on April 12, which the eagle-eyed among you will note is Friday. This leaves the UK with (as far as we can work out) three options. Let’s go through them in order of complexity.
No-deal Brexit: In this scenario, the clock simply runs down and the UK leaves the EU on Friday without an agreement in place. The UK will immediately be outside of single market, customs union and all the other fun EU bodies you’ve come to know and love over the past three years. With the least popular outcome in the House of Commons suddenly a reality, political turmoil would ensue.
May’s deal’s last stand: In a mad rush to avoid a no deal, Theresa May could try to reach a compromise with the Labour Party – perhaps confirmatory votes on the future relationship to get the deal approved by Friday. This would start the implementation period and the cliff edge would be avoided. With relative calm and order restored, political chaos would ensue.
Revoke article 50: This is the complicated one. The UK, as we have known since December, can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, thus ending the Brexit process for good and remaining a member state of the European Union.
But it’s not that simple. The European Court of Justice said in its ruling that, while the UK can indeed revoke Article 50 unilaterally, it would have to do so in “accordance with its constitutional requirements.” In the opinion of the ECJ’s advocate general, the UK set a precedent of requiring parliamentary approval for Article 50. Therefore, it is is logical “that the revocation of that notification also requires parliamentary approval.”
Ramming an act of parliament – or a bill – through in two days is tricky. The government could either table a bill, which requires debate and for the proposed bill to be scrutinized by parliament via a drawn out legislative process.
This can takes days, weeks or months, though as the so-called Cooper Bill to avoid no-deal Brexit proved last week, they can be forced through in a couple of days.
An easier option could be for the government to place something called a statutory instrument before the Commons. A statutory instrument is a statement of law and is generally considered to be secondary to bill. This option would be quicker, but whether it passes the ECJ test or not is a different question: the decision to trigger Article 50 was passed as a bill.
Getting all of this passed in under 48 hours would be hugely controversial and, yes, political chaos would ensue.
A final point, during the Brexit process, parliament has shown us that if it wants to do something, it usually finds a way (H/T for this observation goes to the Financial Times’s political editor, George Parker).
Given that all of this is unprecedented, a bit of a mess, unlikely to happen and it’s fast-approaching midnight here in Brussels, there is every chance I have got something wrong. Please feel free to correct me on Twitter, @lukemcgee.
