The White House and Republicans have agreed on a tentative deal to raise the debt ceiling, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Saturday, moving the US one step back from the brink of a historic default.
However, leaders from both parties are now working to convince their members to vote in favor of the deal to avert potential economic catastrophe.
If the United States were to default on its debt, millions of jobs would be impacted, the cost of borrowing money would skyrocket and government benefits many people rely wouldn’t be sent on time.
But for investors hungry for an opportunity to buy low and sell high, it might not be total doomsday.
Markets have been mostly indifferent to the debt ceiling since the US hit the limit in January. That is bound to change as the default date, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has set as June 5, approaches.
What goes down could go up: The S&P 500 fell by more than 16% over the span of five weeks in 2011 when the United States narrowly avoided a default, which led to a downgrade of the nation’s debt. But two months after the downgrade, the S&P 500 recovered those losses and ended the year virtually unchanged.
Even if a deal isn’t reached in time and the United States defaults, it’s unlikely to go unresolved for a long stretch of time, experts told CNN. And when it does get resolved, it’s quite possible there will be a “relief rally,” eToro US investment analyst Callie Cox said.
But there could be a correction period immediately following a deal as the Treasury replenishes the cash it burned through when it couldn’t borrow money, said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
Should you buy the potential debt-limit dip? “There’s been a lot of reward for when people step in and buy the dip,” Cox said. Many investors are still kicking themselves over not buying more stocks at their lows during the height of the pandemic, she added.
But you can’t look at the market in a vacuum.
“We have so many other pressures weighing on the economy,” Cox said. The US economy has spent the past year defying recession forecasts, but its luck could run out later this year, according to a survey of business economists. Many big-box retailers’ earnings reports indicated that consumers are cutting back on nonessential purchases, a possible sign of a looming recession.
“You don’t want to get over-invested with a recession on the horizon,” Reynolds said. In his view, it’s only worth taking advantage of a market sale if the S&P 500 dips below 16% of its current value.
If you’re a short-term investor it’s better to err on the side of caution, Cox said. But as a long-term investor, if you see stock prices drop below 5% of their current value, “it may make sense to buy into that.”
Overall, “it’s really hard to get excited about this market until inflation hits 2%,” she said.
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