The latest on tensions at the Ukraine-Russia border

After United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres addressed the UN General Assembly on his priorities for 2022, he was asked if he’s concerned about Russia potentially invading Ukraine.

“My message is that there should not be any military intervention in this context, I think that diplomacy is the way to solve problems,” Guterres said. “I’m convinced it will not happen and I strongly hope to be right.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky had a telephone conversation with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The head of state informed his interlocutor about the development of the security situation along Ukraine’s borders. The president thanked the head of the European Commission for consistent support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country, as well as a clear position on the need to strengthen EU sanctions against Russia. The leaders agreed on the need to continue a joint coordinated effort to prevent the conflict from escalating.

Zelensky and von der Leyen discussed current challenges to European energy security. They also discussed preparations for an international energy business forum in Ukraine, which was agreed upon during a meeting in November. The head of state drew attention to the threats to Ukraine and the whole of Europe a possible launch of Nord Stream-2 will create.

Ukraine’s president thanked von der Leyen for the financial support provided by the European Union. The directions of expanding further financial assistance to Ukraine from the EU were also discussed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks in Kyiv on January 14.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked US President Biden for his “unprecedented diplomatic and military assistance for Ukraine,” in a tweet on Friday.

It comes after Biden promised on Thursday that any movement of Russian forces across the Ukrainian border would be met with a “severe and coordinated economic response” from the United States.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also tweeted on Friday, “In another good call, @SecBlinken informed me on results of his meetings in Berlin and Geneva. Grateful for our continued close coordination. Discussed further strengthening of Ukraine’s defense capacities. Good to know that diplomatic track of contacts with Russia remains active.”

Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday for talks in Geneva where they discussed Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border.

The US Defense Department is working on a series of military options for President Biden’s approval that could be activated to beef up US military presence in eastern Europe to provide reassurance to allies and a deterrence factor if Russian invades Ukraine, according to two defense officials.

The options could include “movement of assets and forces already in Europe and also assets and forces available outside of Europe,” the first official said. A Russian invasion “certainly would be one trigger,” for US troops and assets to move. But some forces might be used in exercises and other training scenarios as well. And any arms sales would be considered somewhat a separate matter from troop movements.

These options would also likely be supported by sanctions.

Broadly, the US military goal would be to “meet the capability” that NATO allies in the region are asking for, the official said.

US forces could operate, as they already do, unilaterally in Europe, but could also operate under existing NATO command structures.

Additionally, US special forces continue to assist in the training of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces inside Ukraine.

“Our ongoing training mission in Ukraine plays a large role in the development of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces through regular validation training exercises,” a spokesperson for US Special Operations Command Europe told CNN.

President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed a range of issues, including Ukraine, during their virtual meeting on Friday, according to the White House.

The prime minister indicated Japan was behind the United States in working to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine — though a senior administration official said the matter of sanctions, and whether Japan was prepared to issue them in response to a potential incursion, did not arise.

In addition to discussing Ukraine, Biden accepted an invitation to visit Japan in the late spring.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki talks to reporters in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on January 21 in Washington, DC.

President Biden will meet with his national security team at Camp David this weekend to discuss the situation so far on tensions at the Ukraine-Russia border and whether it might be useful to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.

“It may or may not be the next step. I can’t give you a prediction on if and when it will happen. But if that is a step that is recommended, and that we think would be effective, at this point in the discussion, of course, the President is always open to leader-to-leader engagement,” Psaki told reporters at the press briefing on Friday.

Some participants at the meeting at Camp David will be virtual and some will be there in-person, Psaki added.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov today to discuss escalating tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border.

Blinken is the latest in a long line of US diplomats to meet with Lavrov, a highly experienced diplomat who has served as Russian foreign minister since 2004. Before that, he was Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York from 1994 to 2004.

Here’s a look back some of the US secretaries of State Lavrov has met with over the past 18 years:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shakes hands with US Secretary of State Colin Powell in May 2004 after their meeting at United Nations headquarters in New York. 

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov meet at the Waldorf Astoria hotel, in Septembre 2008 in New York.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov exchange documents formally bringing into force the landmark nuclear arms reduction pact START during the second day of the 47th Munich Security Conference in February 2011 in Munich, Germany.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov speak during a press conference in September 2013 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson talk to reporters in the Treaty Room before heading into meetings at the State Department in May 2017 in Washington, DC.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo shake hands at the conclusion of a joint news conference in the Franklin Room at the State Department in December 2019.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken greets Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov before their meeting, Friday, January 21 2022, in Geneva, Switzerland.

While tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border have been simmering for a long time, here’s a timeline of notable developments over the last decade that culminated into the current escalation in tensions at the Ukraine-Russia border.

2013: Ukraine’s former President Viktor Yanukovych was under severe economic pressure from Russia to not join the European Union. And he pulled out of talks with the EU last minute, after a year of insisting that it was intent on signing a historic political and trade agreement that was aimed at creating closer political and economic ties and fostering economic growth among the nations of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, including Ukraine. This sparked weeks of violent protests in Kyiv.

2014: In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian loyalties, on the pretext that it was defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens.

2015: Shortly afterwards, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared their independence from Kyiv, prompting months of heavy fighting. Despite Kyiv and Moscow signing a peace deal in Minsk in 2015, brokered by France and Germany, there have been repeated ceasefire violations.

According to UN figures, there have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.

The European Union and US have imposed a series of measures in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting individuals, entities and specific sectors of the Russian economy.

The Kremlin accuses Ukraine of stirring up tensions in the country’s east and of violating the Minsk ceasefire agreement.

What’s happening now: The US and NATO have described the movements and concentrations of troops in and around Ukraine as “unusual.”

As many as 100,000 Russian troops have remained amassed at the Ukrainian border. US intelligence findings in December estimated that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine “as soon as early 2022.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will brief European Union foreign ministers on Monday about his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. 

A senior EU official said in a briefing with journalists on Friday:

The EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Brussels in person and Blinken will join them virtually. 

When asked about the EU and its member states’ reaction should Russia further invade Ukraine, the official was adamant:

“The implementation of the sanctions depends on what kind of sanctions we agree. Some of them take more attention, some of them can be implemented instantly,” the senior EU official added. “Normally, most of the sanctions are enforced the very day of the publication. But again, we are talking about contingency planning. We are talking about something - that cross our fingers - will not be necessary to take.”

The official reiterated the bloc’s call for Russia to de-escalate.

US President Joe Biden speaks about Russia and Ukraine prior to a meeting with members of the Infrastructure Implementation Task Force to discuss the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on 20 January.

President Biden’s admission that Western allies are not entirely united on how they would respond to a “minor” Russian incursion into Ukraine has sparked an uproar in Kiev.

They were also met with concern in Europe, where officials and observers said Biden’s candid remarks had turned a spotlight on an uncomfortable truth at a dangerous moment.

Foreign diplomats and experts said Biden’s comments were also an acknowledgment of a harsh reality: as tensions rise on the Ukrainian border, NATO allies are not all on the same page.

This sentiment was echoed by a senior EU diplomat who said, “I think he was actually quite truthful in what he said. Whether it was politically OK, I don’t know.”

The fear is that Biden saying this publicly will give Russian President Vladimir Putin the green light to escalate what is already a very dangerous situation. Biden said in the same answer that he predicts Russia will “move in” to Ukraine, which warned earlier this week that the build-up of Russian troops near the border between the two nations was “almost completed.”

The NATO diplomat who spoke to CNN said that there is a “lack of clarity” over what the specific response would be from NATO allies to specific Russian actions.

“There aren’t yet staked out positions,” the diplomat explained, but said it would probably “break out on the lines you would expect — US, UK, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Easterners would have a low-trigger threshold, everyone else a higher one.”

Read the full analysis here.

The takeaway from US-Russia meeting on Friday is that “diplomacy has a chance to continue,” CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson said after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held their respective news conferences.

“I think it gives Russia what it’s been asking for, which is the written response. It’s been saying that’s the sort of entry to the next round of negotiations, which Sergey Lavrov indicated was there,” Robertson said Friday. “For all involved, it means the diplomacy has a chance to continue, both sides indicating that.”

The difficulty, he pointed out, is that Russia already knows what the written answers are going to be — no giving into Russia’s demands.

Some background: Russia has opposed increased NATO support for Ukraine and demands that foreign forces should withdraw from NATO member states Bulgaria and Romania.

Largely, the meeting has not provided much further clarity on the Ukraine tensions, Robertson said.

“It’s very hard not to see” Russia’s demand for written answers “as a clock-ticking exercise,” he added. “Yet, it is also a path to potential diplomacy.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken pauses while speaking during a press conference after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on 21 January in Geneva, Switzerland.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised Russia’s sinking favorability ratings in eastern Ukraine when he met with his Russian counterpart in Geneva on Friday in an effort to point out that Russia’s aggressions have not been useful in advancing their security interests in the region.  

CNN has asked the US State Department about which specific polling the secretary was referring to. 

Blinken also pointed to the increased support for Ukraine joining NATO – which Russia adamantly opposes — that has largely been the result of Russia’s aggressions. 

“Before 2014, before they went and seized Crimea and went into the Donbass, support for Ukraine joining NATO was 25 or 30%, now it’s 60 %,” Blinken said.

Blinken also claimed that when Russia seized Crimea in 2014, it changed NATO’s position on security in Europe.

“Based on Russia’s stated strategic interests and concerns, how have their actions advanced those concerns? On the contrary, it’s gone in the opposite of what Russia purports to want, and now if Russia renews its aggression against Ukraine, the outcome will simply be to reinforce the very things, the very trends that Russia expresses a concern about,” he added. 

A British Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon stands at a NATO airport in Romania on 01 July 2021.

The Russian foreign ministry reiterated its security demand to the US and NATO, asking for a complete withdrawal of foreign forces from NATO member states Bulgaria and Romania, the Russian foreign ministry said on Friday.

Both Bulgaria and Romania are on the Black Sea — close to Russia’s area of influence. Romania also borders Ukraine. 

The ministry said Moscow’s position was very clear and didn’t leave room for “ambiguous interpretations.”

On Thursday, the Dutch defense minister told parliament that the Netherlands would deploy two F-35 jets, along with support staff, to Bulgaria to increase NATO’s defense and deterrence capabilities in the region, in light of Russian troop build-up around Ukraine.

The deployment is expected to take place in April-May. The country also made available to NATO an amphibious transport ship. 

The Spanish minister of defense also offered to send fighter jets to Bulgaria and a warship to the Black Sea in light of the rising tensions.

Russia has been sending military equipment to bolster pro-Moscow separatists in the Donbass region, the Ukrainian Defense ministry said in a statement on Friday.

The statement added: “The enemy units are being strengthened through the network of recruitment centers in Russia, who are actively recruiting mercenaries and sending them to the temporarily occupied territory in Donetsk and Luhansk regions after undergoing intensive training courses in training centers.”

Some background:

Ukraine insists Russia is seeking to destabilize the country with the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently saying a coup plot, involving Ukrainians and Russians, had been uncovered.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that a planned coup could be part of Russia’s plan ahead of a military invasion. “External military pressure goes hand in hand with domestic destabilization of the country,” he said.

Tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by a deepening Ukrainian energy crisis that Kyiv believes Moscow has purposefully provoked.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meet in Geneva, Switzerland on 21 January.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said US is “fully prepared” for another Biden-Putin summit “if it proves useful and productive.”

The meeting lasted an hour and a half. Blinken held his press conference after Lavrov.

The top US diplomat said that after the US shares its written responses to Russia’s concerns, there will be further conversations “at least at the level of foreign ministers.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said contact with the United States will continue and did not rule out a Biden-Putin summit.

“We’re waiting for their official answer [to Russian security demands],” Lavrov said during a press conference after a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “We’re planning another conversation at our ministerial level.”

He concluded, “we need to understand what will happen before we go to the presidential level.”

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a press conference following security talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 21 January in Geneva, Switzerland.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow never threatened Ukraine or its people, despite the massive military build-up near its borders. 

“Russia never once, nowhere, never threatened the Ukrainian people through the mouths of its official representatives,” Lavrov told journalists after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Some background: The Kremlin has consistently denied that it is planning to attack Ukraine and argues that NATO support for Ukraine — including increased weapons supplies and military training — constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

Meanwhile, the US and NATO have described the movements and concentrations of troops in and around Ukraine as “unusual.” As many as 100,000 Russian troops have remained amassed at the Ukrainian border. US intelligence findings in December estimated that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine “as soon as early 2022.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US will share its concerns with Russia “in more detail, and in writing next week,” after an hour-and-a-half long meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.

The US and Russia “agreed to further discussions after that,” Blinken said.

Going into this meeting in Geneva, Blinken had said he had no plans on presenting Lavrov with written responses, as Russia has been calling for.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (C) speaks to Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (not seen) in Geneva, Switzerland on 21 January.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said his meeting today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva was “not a negotiation,” but was instead “a candid exchange of concerns and ideas.”

Blinken said there was “no trade space” when it came to the principle of “the sovereign right of the Ukrainian people to write their own future.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken gives a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on January 21, after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a meeting in Geneva, Friday that Washington is committed to a “united, swift and severe response” if Moscow commits further aggression against Ukraine.

The two top diplomats ended their hour and a half bilateral meeting Friday, during which the US tried to convince Russia to de-escalate the situation at the Ukrainian border where Russia has amassed tens of thousands of troops and shown signs of a potential invasion into Ukraine.

“We are, all of us, all equally committed to the path of diplomacy and dialogue to try to resolve our differences,” Blinken said Friday. “But we’re also committed, if that proves impossible and Russia decides to pursue aggression against Ukraine, to a united, swift and severe response.”

At a news conference following the meeting with Blinken, Lavrov said that the US had agreed to send written answers to all of Russia’s security demands.

Both sides admitted before their talks that neither was expecting a breakthrough on Russia’s security demands, which the US and allies have deemed nonstarters.

Blinken reiterated he didn’t expect the US and Russia to resolve their differences in the meeting but said he hoped to keep a diplomatic path to addressing those issues open.

“We’re committed to walking that path and resolving our differences peacefully,” he said.

Blinken’s meeting with Lavrov on Friday followed his meetings in Berlin with his German, UK and French counterparts and Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.