Our new CNN/SSRS poll shows movement in the Democratic race after last week’s debate. Following a weak performance in last week’s debate, Joe Biden has dropped 10 points from 32% in late May to 22% now. Following a strong performance, Kamala Harris has jumped from 8% in late May to 17% now.
Coming in third place is Elizabeth Warren at 15%. Just behind her is Bernie Sanders at 14%.
No other candidate polled above 5%, including big fundraiser Pete Buttigieg, who rang in with just 4%.
Here are a few other takeaways from the poll:
One positive thing Joe Biden can take away from our poll is that no other candidate seems to have an ability to break through with moderate or conservative voters. Among this group, Biden is ahead with 31%. The next strongest candidate is Harris with 11%.
Indeed, all the top polling candidates besides Biden do better with liberal than moderate/conservative voters. That’s potentially an issue for non-Biden Democrats because about half of potential primary voters self-identify as either moderate or conservative. They’re the group powering Biden’s lead right now.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that Biden is ahead with moderate/conservative Democrats. All the other candidates in double digits overall (Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren) have very liberal congressional voting records. Biden’s the only one whose record can in anyway be described as moderate.
The lack of choices that moderates have may explain why Biden’s drop among moderate/conservative voters in this poll compared to last was only about half that of his drop among liberal Democrats. The lack of choices may also allow another candidate not polling in the top tier right now to rise. Failing that, however, Biden will be the only choice for voters looking for a moderate.
The lack of choices for moderate/conservatives also may explain why just 29% of them are very satisfied with their primary choices. That’s far lower than the 47% of liberals who say so.
Kamala Harris’ jump in our poll is almost assuredly because of the debates. We know this in part because Democrats overwhelmingly say she did the best of any candidate and because she saw a large jump in our poll.
But she’s weak on the issues when compared to the other top candidates. Only 10% of potential Democratic primary voters say she is best to handle health care. That drops to 6% on the climate crisis and the economy. On all of these top issues, three other Democrats do better than she does.
The only issue on which Harris tops the field is race relations. That, of course, is directly tied to her debate showdown with Biden last week and isn’t generally listed as a top issue for voters.
Having your campaign tied to a strong debate performance is good if you can follow up said performance with other strong performances. That’s especially true when voters are looking for a candidate to take down Trump in a debate.
Debate bumps can be a dangerous game, however. I spoke about last week how Republican Carly Fiorina saw a large debate bump in 2015, while Donald Trump saw a large decline.
Unfortunately for Fiorina, she couldn’t keep it up. We’ll see if Harris is able to do so this year.
One of the more interesting facets of our primary poll is that we found Elizabeth Warren up to 15% from 7% in May. This might give you the idea that Warren is “surging” in part because of her debate performance.
I’m not sure that’s exactly right.
There’s no doubt Warren is higher than she was polling a few months ago. I just think there’s good reason to think she was up in the polls before the debate.
In the middle of last month, Monmouth University had Warren at 15%. A Quinnipiac University poll in the first half of June likewise put Warren at 15%.
The Monmouth poll is especially noteworthy because all the other candidates (except Biden and Harris) seemed to match their latest CNN numbers closely. That’s what you’d expect if you saw Harris as the big winner and Biden as the big loser of the debate.
If you examine the debate numbers, you get the idea that Warren wouldn’t have gained majorly from her performance. Just 13% thought she did best in the debates. That was good enough for second best performance in the minds of those who watched or paid close attention to the debates. It was, however, well behind the 41% who believe Harris did best.
Many of the internals of our CNN poll look similar to polls past. Joe Biden does best among older and more moderate voters. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren do best among more liberal voters. Sanders also scores his best among younger voters. The list goes on and on.
But one thing that stands out is how Harris may be putting together a coalition that combines black voters and white voters with a college degree.
Harris pulls in 24% among black voters and 21% among white voters with a college degree. Among whites without a college degree, her support drops to 13%.
The ability to team up white voters with a college degree and black voters is very reminiscent to what Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama did in 2016 and 2008 respectively. Both lost white voters without a college degree by a significant margin in their respective primaries, though were able to win because of black and white college voter backing.
Black voters, of course, make up most Democratic voters in the south, while college white voters are ascendent within the Democratic coalition.
When it comes to the age breakdown, Harris does about equally well with those under 50 years old and those 50 years old and up. That’s different than either Clinton (who had old people most on her side) or Obama (who had young people most on his side).
The one thing Joe Biden still has going for him is voters think he is the most electable in a year in which voters are prizing electability. In our poll, 43% of potential Democratic primary voters say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump. That’s significantly higher than Bernie Sanders (13%), Kamala Harris (12%) or Elizabeth Warren (12%).
While it’s difficult to know which candidate will eventually be the most electable, you can understand why voters think Biden has the most crossover appeal.
Take a look at the net favorability (favorable-unfavorable) ratings among the top four Democrats among those voters who are not Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.
Biden, in other words, has the “best” rating among non-Democrats of the top contenders. Interestingly, Biden’s net favorability rating is actually up 2 points from late May, even though his standing among Democrats has fallen. Harris’ rating has also improved since about a month ago.
Meanwhile, the two candidates on the left part of the party, Sanders and Warren, have the worst rating.
It’s not all good news for Biden on the electability front, however. Less voters think he is the most electable than previously. When Quinnipiac University asked potential Democratic primary voters who they thought had the best chance of beating Trump in April, 56% said Biden.
You’ll often hear the word “lane” thrown around when it comes to the primaries. For example, there is a liberal lane, a moderate lane, etc.
Our poll (as well as others) suggest that the 2020 Democratic primary is more like the LA freeway, with under and overpasses around and about. That is, there may be lanes, but they intersect each other quite frequently.
Take for example age and ideology. Biden does best among those age 50 and over at 28%. He gets just 15% among those under age 50. Biden scores 31% among those who call themselves moderate and conservative, while only taking in 12% among self-described liberals. (Harris is ahead with this group at 24%.)
Now look at those liberals age 50 and older. Biden jumps to 19%, which is good enough for first among this group.
Or perhaps, you want to look at age and race. Biden does somewhat better among all nonwhite voters at 25% than white voters at 20%. But when you break it down by age, you see Biden gets up to 26% among whites age 50 and older. He’s at just 12% among white voters under 50. Among nonwhites voters 50 years and older, Biden gets over 30%.
The point is the effect of different demographic and political variables are not occurring in isolation. They all work together to form voter opinions.
The qualification requirements are about to get significantly tougher for making the debate stage. Instead of needing 1% in three qualifying polls to make the September debate (as in the June and July debate), candidates will need 2% in 4 qualifying polls released between June 28 and August 28.
Our CNN poll is the first poll candidates can use to qualify for the debate. As previously discussed, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren all got at least 4% in our poll.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, (3%) Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%) and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke (3%) all also got to that 2% threshold.
No other candidate managed to reach that point.
Indeed our poll points to the trouble that a lot of candidates may have getting 2%. There were an additional four candidates (former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and businessman Andrew Yang) who got 1%. Beyond that, no one could even reach 1%.
It’s one thing to get 1% by chance even when you don’t have 1% of the Democratic primary electorate supporting you.
It’s another thing entirely to get to 2% by chance alone.
Additionally, candidates will have only two months to reach that 2%. They’ll need to do it four times.
Unless something changes, the number of debaters will shrink dramatically.
One of the more interesting facets of the Democratic primary campaign so far has been how Joe Biden, the former vice president to the first black president, has held a lead among black voters, even as two black senators are running.
Biden still leads with 36%, while Kamala Harris comes in with 24%. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders follow with 12% and 9% respectively. Warren and Sanders are about where they were in a combination of our April and May samples.
Biden’s advantage though has definitely ebbed over the last few months. In our April and May combined samples, Biden led the pack among African-Americans with 49%.
Meanwhile, Harris was all the way back in fourth place with 6%. In other words, she’s jumped about 20 points.
Harris’ gain follows a significant uptick in endorsements from black lawmakers. Harris now leads Biden in endorsements from Congressional Black Caucus members.
Biden’s drop follows last week’s debate, when Harris called him out for how he spoke about segregationist senators and his past opposition to federally mandated desegregation busing.
Harris may have additional growth with black Democratic voters. More than 20% cannot form an opinion of her. Less than 10% cannot form an opinion of Biden. More black voters (29%) trust her on race relations than trust Biden (23%).
Interestingly, our poll shows no movement for the other African-American in the race, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. He pulls a mere 2% in the poll. That’s actually down a statistically insignificant 2 points from an aggregate of our April and May polls.
One of the big fault-lines in last week’s Democratic debates was whether there should be private insurance to compete with a government health care plan. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren believed there shouldn’t be. Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg said that there should be a “public option” and private insurance. Kamala Harris’ stance remains somewhat hazy, though she seems to lean toward a place for private insurance.
Interestingly, more voters trust Sanders (26%) on health care than any other candidate.
I say interestingly because CNN also asked voters whether they wanted a national health care plan and followed up with whether private insurance should be eliminated among those who said yes.
Despite some heavy hitters saying that private insurance should all but be eliminated, just 30% of potential Democratic primary voters feel that way. The plurality, 49%, said that there should be a public option. Another 13% don’t want any government run plan.
Take a look at the breakdown by candidate. Only 21% of Biden backers want to get rid of private insurance. That percentage drops down to 18% among Harris backers. Perhaps a sign that she would be wisest to stick with the idea that there should be private insurance plans.
We don’t have a large enough sample size to look at Sanders and Warren backers individually, but take a look at our combined sample of both Sanders and Warren supporters. Among them, a plurality of 46% want private insurance completely replaced. That’s just ahead of the 45% who want private insurance to remain in competition.
This makes a lot sense given that 51% of self-described very liberal Democratic voters want to get rid of private insurance. Among somewhat liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats, only about 25% do.
Besides Joe Biden, our poll has to be the most disappointing for Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg announced earlier today that he had raised nearly $25 million in the second quarter.
Yet, Buttigieg comes in with only 4% support in the race for the Democratic nomination. That’s down from 5% from in late May and 7% in late April.
Buttigieg’s big problem continues to be black Democrats. He scores 0% with them in our poll, which is actually less than the 1% he had with them in a combined sample of our April and May polls.
Buttigieg, though, doesn’t really do well with any group. Among no ideological group (moderate/conservative, somewhat liberal or very liberal) does he get better than 5%. He pulls in a mere 8% among college-educated whites who have traditionally been his best group.
Perhaps most amazingly, Buttigieg earns 8% of the vote from those who hold a favorable view of him. This represents a slight drop for him of 12% from this same group of voters in late May. The Democratic primary leader among this group who holds a favorable view of Buttigieg (48% of the potential primary electorate) is actually Harris at 25%.
Part of Buttigieg’s lackluster polling may be that he seems to have been outshone by Harris in last week’s debate. Among those who watched or paid close attention to at least one debate, 41% said Harris did best. Just 3% said Buttigieg.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has fallen significantly in the first CNN/SSRS poll conducted after the first Democratic debate last week.
Biden scored 22% (down from 32% in May). while California Sen. Kamala Harris has jumped into second place at 17% (up from 8%).
The fall of Biden and rise of Harris follows a pivotal debate moment in which Harris forcefully confronted Biden over his opposition in the 1970s and ’80s to federally mandated desegregation busing. Harris was widely viewed as coming out better from that exchange.
Rounding out the top three is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who comes in with 15%. This is higher than the 7% she took in CNN’s May poll, though the same as she scored in a Monmouth University poll in mid-June.
The only other candidate to hit double digits is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 14%. That’s a decline from 18% in our May CNN poll, but equal to what he took in from Monmouth in mid-June.
Amazingly, no other candidate hit even 5% in the over 20 person Democratic primary field. This includes South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who, despite raising nearly $25 million in the second quarter of 2019, received support from only 4% of voters.
