Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016

President Donald Trump is projected to win the presidency for a second time in a historic comeback. There are some key takeaways in how the country’s politics have shifted over three straight elections with Trump on the ballot.

CNN’s exit poll results from 2016, 2020 and 2024 reveal how a sour economy was a drag on Vice President Kamala Harris, how she failed to drive an uptick in support among women even though there was an uptick in support for abortion rights, and how Latino men, in particular, gravitated toward Trump.

CNN's exit polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year's election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the election themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they're most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That's particularly true before the exit poll numbers are adjusted to match final election results.

Exit poll data for 2024 will continue to update and will automatically reflect in the charts below.

Harris’ edge among women this year did not exceed either President Joe Biden’s or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s, a troubling sign for the vice president given that she tried to mobilize female voters on the issue of abortion. Trump maintained an edge among men.

Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump since 2016. This year, Latino men broke in his direction for the first time. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won them in 2024. Latina women still favored Harris, but by smaller margins than they supported either Clinton or Biden.

Harris maintained strong leads among Black men and women. Trump’s lead among White men shrank.

White voters without college degrees have long represented Trump’s base of support, something that has remained constant. A shift has occurred among White college-educated voters. They narrowly backed Trump in 2016, but Harris won them in 2024, a split driven by both men and women. Harris won White women with a college degree by about 15 points — an improvement over both Biden and Clinton. Meanwhile, Harris lost some support among voters of color of all education levels.

Democrats lost some support among the youngest voters, a group that overwhelmingly votes for them. But Harris also made gains among the oldest voters, a group that traditionally leans Republican. It’s an interesting shift.

While Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he returned to full strength there in 2024. Cities remained solidly Democratic. The suburbs stayed the evenly split battleground that decides elections.

Voters were about evenly split in 2020 on whether the economy was in good shape or not, an incredible thing given the raging pandemic that was affecting Americans’ lives that year. In 2024, about two-thirds of voters said the economy was in bad shape. That shift in sentiment benefited Trump.

It makes sense that partisans would say their position has or has not improved based on whether the person they support is in the White House. This year, there’s a big shift. In 2020, just about one-fifth of voters said they were doing worse than four years before. This year, it’s nearly half of voters who say they are doing worse than four years ago. Trump won them overwhelmingly.

One story these charts don’t fully tell is how the abortion conversation has changed. In 2016, Roe v. Wade guaranteed every American woman a constitutional right to an abortion. In 2024, that federal right is gone, taken away by a conservative majority Trump helped seat on the Supreme Court. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In 2024, it’s about two-thirds of Americans who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But they didn’t necessarily tie that support to their vote for president. About half of people who say abortion should be legal in most cases supported Trump.

Liberals and conservatives have moved even further into their partisan corners during the Trump years. Moderates still favored the Democratic nominee in 2024, but by a smaller margin than in 2020.

People who say they cast their vote more in support of their chosen candidate than against their opponent split for Trump, a signal of his popularity among his supporters. Those motivated more by opposition were largely in Harris’ camp. Overall, roughly three-quarters of voters said they were mostly voting to support their candidate, not to oppose their rival.

Trump’s campaign strategy was built around motivating low-propensity voters who don’t usually take part in the political process. That paid off because there was a dramatic swing between 2020, when Biden won first-year voters, and 2024, when Trump won them. But there’s important context in the fact that a smaller portion of voters reported casting their first ballot in 2024 than in 2020.