March 22, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

French carmaker Renault resumed production at its Moscow factory on Monday. However, the return will last only three days, the group’s spokesperson Rie Yamane confirmed to CNN on Tuesday.

On Feb. 28, Renault halted production following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, CNN’s French affiliate BFMTV reported.

Russia was a key piece in Renault’s global empire before the war broke out. With 482,264 cars sold in 2021, Russia was the second most important market for Renault, ranking only behind the carmaker’s home base in France in terms of sales volume, according to the group’s 2021 sales results.

Renault owns major Russian car manufacturer AvtoVAZ, whose brand Lada represented nearly 21% of the Russian market in 2021. Lada Vesta and Lada Granta were the two most popular car models in Russia in 2021, according to Renault Group’s 2021 financial results.

Renault’s share price has dropped by more than 26% since Russia launched the invasion on February 24, according to data from the Paris stock exchange.

The French state is the biggest single shareholder of Renault, holding 15.01% of the share at the end of 2020, according to data from the group.  

The French Finance Ministry declined CNN’s request for a comment on Renault resuming car production in Moscow.

Hackers associated with Russian internet addresses have been scanning the networks of five US energy companies in a possible prelude to hacking attempts, the FBI said in a March 18 advisory to US businesses obtained by CNN. 

The FBI issued the notice days before US President Joe Biden publicly warned that Kremlin-linked hackers could target US organizations as the Russian military continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine and as Western sanctions on the Kremlin begin to bite. 

Deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger said during Monday’s White House briefing that Russia had been conducting “preparatory activity” for cyber attacks, which she said could include scanning websites and hunting for software vulnerabilities.”

There are at least 18 US companies in other sectors, such as defense and financial services, that were subjected to the scanning, the FBI said.

There are no confirmed breaches related to the scanning, but the FBI advisory is the latest in a chorus of warnings from US officials to critical infrastructure operators to be on alert for potential Russian hacking. “The magnitude of Russia’s cyber capacity is fairly consequential and it’s coming,” Biden told business executives on Monday. 

The Russia-based Internet Protocol addresses, or data that identifies a computer, are “believed to be associated with cyber actors who previously conducted destructive cyber activity against foreign critical infrastructure,” the FBI said in its advisory.

CBS News first reported on the FBI advisory.  

Read the full story here:

Related article FBI advised that hackers scanned networks of 5 US energy firms ahead of Biden's Russia cyberattack warning

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that the administration has not seen China provide military equipment to Russia since President Joe Biden spoke with China’s President Xi Jinping last Friday. 

“I can’t make predictions going forward. What I can tell you is we have not seen since those meetings or since the President’s conversation with Xi, the provision of military equipment by China to Russia, but of course, this is something we are monitoring closely,” Sullivan told reporters Tuesday.

Russia has requested military support and economic assistance support from China, two US officials told CNN last week. China has conveyed some openness to offering help to Russia, according to a US diplomatic cable to allies. Both Russia and Beijing have denied that there have been any such requests. 

On Friday, Biden sought to dissuade Xi from assisting Russia, warning his Chinese counterpart during a 110-minute long video call of the “implications and consequences” for Beijing if it were to provide material support to Moscow.

United States national security adviser Jake Sullivan previewed President Joe Biden’s upcoming trip to Brussels and Poland, outlining the President’s schedule and setting a series of priorities for the trip.

According to Sullivan, Biden will attend an emergency NATO summit in Brussels, joined by leaders of the other 29 NATO allies, before addressing the 27 leaders of the European Union at a session of the European Council. From there, Biden “will have the opportunity to coordinate on the next phase of military assistance to Ukraine,” and “join our partners in imposing further sanctions on Russia and tightening the existing sanctions to crack down on evasion and to ensure robust enforcement.”

The President is also expected to make a slew of new announcements, including “a joint action on enhancing European energy security and reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas at long last,” as well as “longer term adjustments to NATO force posture on the Eastern Flank.” Biden will also make further commitments on human rights “to respond to the growing flow of refugees” flowing from Ukraine, Sullivan said.

In Poland, Biden “will engage with US troops who are now helping to defend NATO territory, and he will meet with experts involved in the humanitarian response,” and hold a bilateral meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda. Sullivan did not say whether the President would meet personally with refugees while traveling to Poland.

In his remarks to reporters Tuesday, the national security adviser outlined the administration’s priorities while traveling to Europe, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin “has thus far manifestly failed” in subjugating neighboring Ukraine, enhancing Russian power in the region, or degrading Western influence.

In a series of tweets Tuesday, Biden outlined priorities and stops for his trip.

A Russian missile hit and destroyed the Pavlohrad-2 train station in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, says Valentin Reznichenko, the Regional Head of War and Civil Administration.

The strike killed one person, derailed 15 freight cars and destroyed a stretch of track, Reznichenko said. Station operations have been suspended indefinitely, he added.

Pavlohrad is an important crossroads for Ukraine’s railway system. It is a railroad cargo hub and transport link to several eastern regions which are active frontlines in Russia’s war with Ukraine.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan during a press briefing at the White House, on March 22.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan broadly previewed actions the United States would take in conjunction with other world leaders during US President Joe Biden’s trip to Brussels, Belgium, Thursday.

“What I will say is that one of the key elements of that announcement will focus not just on adding new sanctions, but on ensuring that there is a joint effort to crack down on evasion, on sanctions busting, on any attempt by any country to help Russia basically undermine, weaken, or get around the sanctions,” he continued, calling that “an important part of this next phase.”

There will be new sanctions designations and targets, Sullivan added, but “a big part of it is about effective enforcement and evasion, applying the lessons that we’ve learned from other circumstances where we have, in fact, imposed sanctions on countries.”

Biden is set to join world leaders for an extraordinary NATO summit Thursday, as well as a meeting of the G7 and the European Council.

On Monday, after intense fighting, Ukrainian forces regained control of Makariv, a town west of Kyiv that had been battered by Russian airstrikes.

It’s tempting to view this small victory for Ukrainian forces as a shift of momentum in the battle for Kyiv: In better times, this suburb would be only an hour’s drive to Khreshchatyk, the capital’s central boulevard.

Kyiv once appeared to be the primary objective of what the Kremlin must have envisioned as a swift regime-change operation. The capital has been rocked by explosions in recent days, but it is far from encircled.

On the Azov Sea, the besieged southeastern city of Mariupol — despite being surrounded and mercilessly pummeled, block by block, by Russian firepower — still eludes Russian control. Its defenders rejected an ultimatum to surrender by Monday morning, thwarting a Russian effort to finalize a land bridge linking Crimea with the separatist republics of the eastern Donbas region.

Nearly a month after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has perceptibly shifted its messaging. The Russian military’s advances have been stymied, the Ukrainians say, forcing a shift in Russian tactics.

“Due to the lack of success of the ground phase of the operation, the enemy continues to actively launch missile and bomb strikes on important military and civilian infrastructure using operational and tactical aircraft, high-precision missile weapons and indiscriminate munitions,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement Tuesday.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the Russians are taking more of a standoff approach, launching salvos of missiles from outside of Ukrainian airspace.

Continue reading the full story here:

smoke rising from burning apartment buildings

Related article Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming

It’s nighttime in Ukraine. These are the key takeaways from Tuesday so far:

Belarus could join war: The US and NATO believe that Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so. It is increasingly “likely” that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday. 

Ukrainians fighting to reclaim territory: Ukrainians forces have now been trying to take back territory in the last few days that the Russians had gained, according to a senior US defense official, calling them “able and willing” to do so.

Ukrainian forces have regained control of Makariv, a town 30 miles west of Kyiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a post on Facebook on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the mayor of Boryspil, a city to the east of the capital, is calling on residents to leave, saying “fighting is already raging around the region” in a video statement posted to Facebook. 

Dwindling supplies: Some towns in Ukraine don’t have more than three or four days’ worth of food, the aid agency Mercy Corps said Tuesday, warning that the humanitarian system in the country “is entirely broken down.”

Food and medical supplies have almost run out in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, according to spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleg Nikolenko. 

Refugees: More than 3.5 million refugees have now fled Ukraine, according to the latest update from the UN Refugee Agency.

About half a million refugees who have fled the war in Ukraine to Poland require support for mental health disorders, and 30,000 are estimated to have severe mental health problems, the World Health Organization’s representative in Poland said Tuesday.  

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Western sanctions on Russia are showing “effects, which will only get more dramatic every day.” However, the chancellor stressed that cutting off energy supplies from Russia must be “manageable” for European countries.

The Ukraine war “could be a longer dispute and therefore we must cope together,” Scholz said, speaking at a press conference alongside European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.

Scholz said Germany’s stance on European Union-wide ban on Russian energy imports has not changed.

“This also applies to many other [European] countries who are even more dependent on [Russian] coal, oil and gas, even more than Germany,” he added.

“We decided to make us independent as quickly as possible from gas and oil imports from Russia,” the German leader said, adding that some “very intensive construction work and contracts” are necessary to make Germany less dependent on Russian energy.

Metsola said, “Europe must become completely independent from [Russian energy].”

“We must buy our energy from friends, not enemies, because at the end we are paying for this war every day,” she added.

“It is time to take a lead. We are not only talking about the green agenda, considering it from the environmental perspective, a climate perspective, but we are also seeing it from a perspective of security,” Metsola continued.

Ukrainians wait to register at a refugee welcome center in Paris on March 17.

France has launched a national plan to prepare housing for at least 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, French Prime Minister Jean Castex told reporters Tuesday.  

“More and more of them [Ukrainians] are finding refuge in France or transiting through our territory,” Castex said, following an interdepartmental crisis meeting on the issue.  

More than 26,000 Ukrainian refugees have arrived in France since the beginning of the war, according to Castex. Among them, 10,500 have obtained temporary residency provided under the EU temporary protection policy, activated on March 3.  

The French Prime Minister also vowed to help Ukrainian refugees better integrate into France’s job market, with French classes provided at the country’s employment agency.  

“We are entering a crisis that will last,” Castex said. “It’s our country’s honor to keep the warmest welcome possible for our Ukrainian friends.”

Russia has begun firing on the city of Mariupol from the Sea of Azov, according to a senior US defense official, using a group of approximately seven ships to launch attacks on the critical coastal city.

The official said a few of the ships may be a minesweeper and some amphibious landing ships, but some of the ships are surface combatants that have joined the attack on the besieged city over the last 24 hours.

The city has already been under an ongoing Russian bombardment from long-range missile launches and artillery outside the city.

Separately, the Russians have a total of about 21 ships in the Black Sea, the official said. Twelve of the ships are surface combatants, while the rest are amphibious ships.

The Wagner Group, a paramilitary group sponsored by Russia, is “active” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Tuesday.

There are no foreign fighters “that have flown into the country” from Syria or elsewhere that the US has seen, the official added.

Right now, the US is not seeing “tangible indications” that Russians are making an effort to re-supply, but “we do continue to see indications that they are having these discussions and that they are making these kinds of plans both in terms of re-supply and also reinforcement,” the official noted.

The United States has seen indications that some Russian soldiers have gotten frostbite in Ukraine because they lack the appropriate cold-weather gear, according to a senior US defense official. 

The lack of proper equipment is compounded by the shortages of food and fuel among Russian forces, the official said, as logistics and sustainment problems continue to plague Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is nearing the one-month mark. 

The Russians are also having command and control challenges, which has made communications difficult, further exacerbating the logistics and sustainment problems, the official said.

Ukraine experienced a cold snap earlier this month.

If Ukrainian forces consolidate their control of Makariv, it would become more difficult for Russian forces to secure the western approaches to Kyiv and then push further south. There are also indications that Russian forces have suffered setbacks to the north of Kyiv in areas they have held almost since the beginning of the invasion.  

A brief video geolocated by CNN showed Ukrainian troops walking in the town of Moschun, about 20 miles (35 kms) north of the capital. The video appears to have been shot in the last two days.

Ukrainian drone video geolocated during the weekend showed the destruction of Russian armor in the same area.   

Additionally, the flooding of the Irpin River may pose logistical difficulties for Russian troops in the area, as could the destruction of a railway bridge north of Irpin.  

If Ukrainian forces consolidate their gains, the Russians’ most advanced positions at Bucha and Hostomel immediately north of Kyiv could become vulnerable to encirclement. 

The Russians’ capture of the Antonov air base at Hostomel just after the invasion began was short-lived, preventing them from using it as an airbridge. Russian forces have artillery positions near the Antonov base, according to recent satellite imagery. 

Some 12 miles (or about 20 kilometers) north of Makariv is the town of Borodyanka, which has been held by Russian and Chechen forces since early in the campaign. If the Ukrainians were to take Borodyanka, forward Russian units could be cut off.

At present, the southern route out of the capital is still open, and according to CNN teams that have traveled the route, it is frequently congested with traffic bringing supplies into Kyiv.

Russia’s inability to complete the encirclement of the capital over nearly four weeks has come as a surprise to the Western officials, some of whom predicted that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours of the invasion beginning.

CNN’s Ellie Kaufman contributed reporting to this post.

Civilians examine a residential building after it was bombed two days ago, in Kyiv on March 21.

The United States has “clear evidence” that Russian forces have “deliberately and intentionally targeted civilian infrastructure, hospitals, places of shelter,” a senior US defense official said Tuesday.

US President Joe Biden’s administration is “helping to provide evidence” to multiple ongoing investigations into whether Russia is committing war crimes, the official said.

“The administration is going to be helping to provide evidence to the multiple investigations that are going on, but we see clear evidence that they’re committing war crimes through these indiscriminate and intentional attacks on civilian targets and the people of Ukraine,” the official said.

A Ukrainian counterattack north and west of the capital of Kyiv appears to have made some headway, jeopardizing Russian efforts to encircle the city and threatening the ability of Russian forces to resupply the forward units that are exposed to the north of the city.   

Videos geolocated Monday show Ukrainian soldiers draping the national flag over a building in the town of Makariv, some 65 kilometers (40 miles) west of Kyiv.  

Then, early Tuesday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a post on social media that they had regained control of Makariv.  

Following 24 hours of fighting, the “state flag of Ukraine was raised over the city of Makariv” as the Russians retreated, the Armed Forces said on Facebook. 

The town is strategically placed due west of Kyiv.     

The head of Kyiv’s regional police, Andriy Nebytov, toured Makariv on Monday. A video of his visit showed widespread devastation and the town appeared deserted.

Nebytov said Makariv was still being shelled, indicating the immediate area is still contested. He was told by another officer during the tour that artillery fire was coming from five kilometers (three miles) to the north, an area still held by the Russians.   

“Makariv is still under fire,” he said. “Every second civilian building, private houses, have been destroyed, damaged by artillery shelling.”

At one point, Nebytov passed a memorial to villagers “who gave their lives for the Soviet Motherland, in 1941-1945,” as he put it. “So there you are, those people died in a battle against fascism, Nazism. Now history is repeating itself.” 

Mental health service area at a Warsaw reception center for Ukrainian refugees in Poland on March 15.

About half a million refugees who have fled the war in Ukraine to Poland require support for mental health disorders, and 30,000 are estimated to have severe mental health problems, the World Health Organization’s representative in Poland, Paloma Cuchi, said Tuesday.  

The WHO said its assessment is based on estimates for mental health conditions following armed conflicts. 

Aside from mental and emotional distress, the main problems faced by refugees from Ukraine in reception centers include fever, diarrhea, hypothermia, upper-respiratory tract infections and cardiac arrest, according to the WHO. 

On Tuesday, the WHO reported that there have now been 62 verified attacks on health care sites in Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in late February.  

Ukrainians forces have now been trying to take back territory in the last few days that the Russians had gained, according to a senior US defense official, calling them “able and willing” to do so.

The official cited the examples of Ukrainians fighting to take back Kherson, as well as pushing Russian forces from the northeast of Mykolaiv to have to reposition south of the city.

The official cautioned that the US cannot say whether these moves are part of a “larger operational plan” by the Ukrainians or not.

The Ukrainian defense has been “nimble” and “agile,” according to the official.

Customers shop at a supermarket in Hyeres, France on March 17.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday he is considering issuing vouchers to help middle and low-income families facing rising food prices made worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The proposed food vouchers would be similar to the country’s current system of energy vouchers which, among other things, helps pay the electricity and gas bills of roughly 5.8 million low-income households every year, according to data from the French Finance Ministry.

Macron reiterated that France and Europe need to eventually achieve food independence, a key element of his re-election campaign agenda.

The first round of voting for France’s presidential election is scheduled to take place on April 10.

Some background: The Ukrainian government has banned exports on key agricultural goods, including wheat, corn, grains, salt and meat.

Ukraine is one of Europe’s largest suppliers of agricultural produce, per data from the European Commission. Combined, Russia and Ukraine are responsible for almost 30% of global wheat exports, according to Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data analytics firm.

Macron has previously said that both Europe and Africa “will be very profoundly destabilized in food supplies.” 

The US State Department coordinated with St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital to transport four Ukrainian children with cancer to the United States for treatment, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement.

The children were airlifted from Poland – where the US relocated its diplomats from Ukraine – “to Memphis International Airport, where they were met and transported to St. Jude,” Price said. 

“There, the patients will be able to safely resume critical cancer therapy disrupted by the Kremlin’s aggression. They will receive the specialized care they desperately need, and their family members will be afforded sustenance, security, and support from St. Jude,” he said. 

“That is why, together with our allies and partners, we will continue to support our Ukrainian partners as we seek to save lives and bring this needless war to a close,” he said.

Ukrainian photojournalist Max Levin poses for a photo in the Donetsk region in Ukraine on Jan. 12, 2018. The UNIAN news agency reported Tuesday March 22, that Levin has been unaccounted since March 13.

Renowned Ukrainian photojournalist Max Levin has disappeared on the front line near Kyiv, according to a statement from a friend of Levin, Markiian Lyseiko.

“His last communication took place on March 13th from the Vyshgorod district, near Kyiv. He was working as a photographer at the time, traveling by car. He was stopped near the village Guta Mezhigirska, on his way to another village, Motzhun. The last communication from his mobile phone was at 11:23 on that day, after which point communication with him ceased.”

“Later, we discovered there had been intensive fighting in the areas, and it is assumed that he may have been injured or captured by Russian troops,” Lyseiko’s statement added.

Food and medical supplies have almost run out in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, according to spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleg Nikolenko. 

In a tweet on Tuesday, Nikolenko said that “Kherson’s 300k citizens face a humanitarian catastrophe owing to the Russian army’s blockade.”

The city has been occupied by Russian forces for about two weeks.

Nikolenko said that Russia is refusing to open evacuation corridors for civilians to get out. He called for “Russia’s barbaric tactics” to be “stopped before it is too late.” 

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, left, shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during a press conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on February 18.

The US and NATO believe that Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so. 

It is increasingly “likely” that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday. 

“Putin needs support. Anything would help,” the official explained. 

A Belarusian opposition source said that Belarusian combat units are ready to go into Ukraine as soon as the next few days, with thousands of forces prepared to deploy. In this source’s view, this will have less of an impact militarily than it will geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war.

A senior NATO intelligence official said separately the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government “is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine.”

Belarusians voted last month to allow the country to host both Russian forces and nuclear weapons permanently, though US officials have emphasized to CNN that they have not yet seen any evidence of Russia moving nuclear weapons or preparing to.  

Western leaders said they would not recognize the legitimacy of the vote in Belarus. In a statement from January, the US mission to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) described the referendum as “neither a viable — nor credible — path forward for Belarus.”

The vote followed a years-long violent crackdown by the Moscow-backed Lukashenko regime against his domestic political opponents, following the disputed presidential election in 2020 which was marred by fraud and triggered mass protests. 

The sources emphasized that there have been no indications to date that Belarus is currently participating in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said the Pentagon had not seen “any indications that the Belarusians are preparing to move in — into Ukraine or that they have made any agreements to do that.”

The NATO military official said that a final decision for Belarus’ involvement in the war still has to be made in Moscow, and as of yet, there has been no indication that Belarusian forces are participating in the fighting in Ukraine.

“It is not about what [Alexander] Lukashenko wants,” the official explained, referring to the Belarusian president. “The question is: Does Putin want another unstable country in the region?” 

The official wouldn’t elaborate on how Belarus could intervene in the war, but said it made sense for Russia to try and cut off NATO military aid coming into Ukraine from its Western border.

More background: Russia has been using Belarus as a springboard for many of its air operations in Ukraine, according to intelligence collected by NATO surveillance planes flying over the Polish-Ukrainian border and radar seen by CNN.

CNN’s Barbara Starr contributed reporting to this post.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres briefs the press on the war in Ukraine at UN Headquarters in New York on March 14.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for an end to the “absurd war” brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is causing “appalling human suffering” that has been “intensifying” and becoming “more unpredictable by the hour.”

Guterres called the war “un-winnable” and urged for serious negotiation in a briefing from a stakeout podium at UN headquarters in New York City Tuesday.

“From my outreach with various actors, elements of diplomatic progress are coming into view on several key issues,” he said. 

But as millions of Ukrainians have been forced from their home, he said the “war is going nowhere fast.”

“There is enough on the table to cease hostilities now … and seriously negotiate now,” he continued.

Guterres said “the Ukrainian people are enduring a living hell,” and that — particularly for developing countries already feeling the chokehold of Covid-19 recovery — “reverberations are being felt worldwide with skyrocketing food, energy and fertilizer prices threatening to spiral into a global hunger crisis.”

Members of the Italian Parliament and government listen to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky during his virtual address to the parliament in Rome, Italy on March 22,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday urged “more sanctions, more pressure” against Russia as the war keeps on ravaging Ukraine.

“Ukraine to Russian forces is the wall that separates them from Europe. But barbarians must not pass,” Zelensky told Italian lawmakers Tuesday during virtual address.

The Russian invasion “will ruin more lives, more families, and the full scale war will continue. Unfortunately, Russian missiles artillery is not stopping the bombing of our cities, all of the some of them have been almost destroyed completely,” he said, adding that in Mariupol there is nothing left, “just ruins like armageddon.”

“You know who brought war to Ukraine you know them very well. You know who is ordering war and who is promoting it. Almost all of them use Italy as a holiday resort. So do not be a resort for them. Block their properties, seize their accounts, their yachts from Scheherazade to the smallest one.”

The Netherlands has frozen nearly 392 million euros ($431.44 million) in Russian assets, the Dutch Ministry of Finance told parliament in a letter seen by CNN.

As of Tuesday, 391,944,031 million euros had been frozen, with the ministry saying that further asset freezes were expected.

More on sanctions: Countries around the world have imposed sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

See a list of global sanctions on Russia here.

Liubov Tsybulska, adviser to Ukraine’s government and military, said there’s a chance “Putin’s power will be limited by his own people.”

Speaking from Warsaw, Poland about whether there’s potential for a Russian exit from Ukraine, Tsybulska told CNN: “I think that the best-case scenario is if something happens in Russia, we know that there’s a division between Russian elites … people within their government understand that this war is going to bring Russia to collapse.”

Speaking of Russia’s offensive and the resistance forces are facing, Tsybulska said: “They are trying to take cities, but they cannot enter and take control over Ukrainian cities. They did it in Kherson, but people keep protesting, people keep resisting, and basically, Russians don’t know what to do with that and the same thing with Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Kyiv.”

“They can shell and kill civilians, but they cannot control the cities,” Tsybulska said. Tsybulska said Putin’s “ultimate goal” is Kyiv, adding “it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to take the city.”

“But of course, Russia wants to frighten civilians, and they want to spread panic among civilians and demoralization and basically reduce the support for the Ukrainian army from the Ukrainian population,” Tsybulska added.

Several loud explosions could be heard in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday while the city was under a 35-hour curfew. 

One of the blasts was so strong it set off car alarms in the city center, a CNN team witnessed.

Ukrainian interior ministry advisor Anton Gerashchenko said Ukrainian air defenses had engaged and destroyed a Russia Tochka-U missile and that remains of the projectile had fallen in the Dniper river.

Shelling and small arms fire could also be heard intermittently over the past couple of hours.

Kyiv is currently under a curfew announced by the city’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko on Monday. In a statement on Telegram, Klitschko said the curfew would begin Monday at 8:00 p.m and last until 7:00am on Wednesday.

“Shops, pharmacies, gas stations, institutions will not work tomorrow,” he said. “Therefore, I ask everyone to stay at home or in shelters - at sound of an alarm. Only those with special permits will be able to move around the city.”

Members of the Italian Parliament and government listen to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky during his virtual address to the parliament in Rome, Italy, on March 22.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Pope Francis talked over the phone on Tuesday about the war, Zelensky told Italian lawmakers on Tuesday.

“Today I spoke with his Holiness Pope Francis, and he said very important words: ‘I understand that you want peace. I understand that you have to defend yourselves, that soldiers defend civilians, they defend their homeland. Everyone is defending it,’” Zelensky said in an address to Italian Parliament.

“And I answered: ‘Our people have become the army, when they saw how much evil the enemy brings, how much devastation it brings, and how much bloodshed it (Russia) wants to see,’” the president said. 

Zelensky said that 117 children have died so far during the war, calling it “the price of procrastination” of other countries in stopping the war.

Zelensky told the Pope “about the difficult humanitarian situation and the blocking of rescue corridors by Russian troops,” he tweeted. 

“The mediating role of the Holy See in ending human suffering would be appreciated,” Zelensky added.

In a tweet, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the Vatican Andriy Yurash said the pair had “very promising” talks. 

Yurash also said that the Pope ” is the most expected guest in Ukraine.”

Some towns in Ukraine don’t have more than three or four days’ worth of food, the aid agency Mercy Corps said Tuesday, warning that the humanitarian system in the country “is entirely broken down.”

“One of our biggest concerns right now is the vulnerability of the supply chain. We know that most municipalities in areas seeing the most intense fighting don’t have more than three to four days’ worth of essentials like food,” said Mercy Corps’ Ukraine humanitarian response adviser Steve Gordon, who is in Kharkiv, the site of some of the heaviest fighting since the Russian invasion.

At least 70% of the population of Kharkiv and Sumy is entirely dependent on aid, he estimated.

“The reality is that right now the humanitarian system is entirely broken down. We are not seeing a high-functioning, coordinated international aid effort covering the whole of Ukraine like we often see in other conflict zones,” he said. “While the United Nations is getting aid into some areas, we’ve seen through the failure of humanitarian corridors that many people are only surviving through support from small Ukrainian civil society organization like church groups, which are coordinating essential deliveries such as food and medical supplies. These amazing volunteer networks are working as hard as they can but they are stretched to the max.”

Dmitry Muratov, 2021 Nobel Peace Prize winner and Novaya Gazeta editor-in-chief, is presented with a diploma and gold medal at the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize award ceremony at the Oslo City Hall, Norway, on December 10.

Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta will auction the Nobel Peace Prize medal won by its editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov in aid of Ukrainian refugees. 

In a statement published on the newspaper’s website Tuesday, Muratov said the droves of “wounded and sick children” requiring “urgent treatment” compelled him to offer up the prestigious medal. 

Muratov, the co-founder of Novaya Gazeta, won the Nobel Peace Prize last October for his tireless defense of freedom of speech in Russia. 

The editor-in-chief stressed in the statement the urgent need for a ceasefire, exchange of prisoners and provision of humanitarian corridors. 

The proceeds from the sale of the medal will go to The Foundation of Assistance to the Ukrainian Refugees, a nongovernmental organization that strives to “provide moral and material support to refugees from Ukraine.”

More than 3.5 million refugees have now fled Ukraine, according to the latest update from the UN Refugee Agency.

Muratov concluded his statement by saying he was applying to auction houses for a “response that will tender this award known to the whole world.” 

Destroyed Russian military vehicles are seen on a street in the settlement of Borodyanka, Ukraine, on March 3.

It’s been nearly a month since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, deploying tens of thousands of troops into an offensive against its neighbor from three sides.

While Ukraine’s military is much smaller, its forces have mounted a fierce resistance that has managed to hold off Russian advances in some parts of the country. A senior NATO intelligence official said Monday signs were pointing to a stalemate emerging in Russia’s offensive, with Russian ground forces remaining stalled and Russian combat aircraft unable to achieve air superiority.

Precisely how many Russian troops have been killed in their campaign thus far is unclear.

On March 2, a Russian defense ministry spokesman put the number of dead Russian military personnel at 498. But that number has not been updated by officials since then.

Then on Monday a pro-Putin Russian tabloid published – then later removed – a report with an updated toll of 9,861 Russian armed forces deaths in the war in Ukraine, citing the Russian defense ministry.

The report from the tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda originally read: “According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed and 16153 wounded.”

CNN analyzed the website’s HTML code, which indicated that the article was published on Monday at 12:09 a.m. Moscow time.

Seconds after CNN read the original article – at 9:56 p.m. Moscow time, according to the HTML code – the story was updated and all references to the death count were removed. That update on the outlet’s website came shortly after the article began to get attention from social media posts, which referenced the death count.

The original report from the tabloid is in line with US Department of Defense estimates that there have been up to 10,000 Russian military deaths. Ukraine has put the number even higher.

CNN is not able to independently verify any of these figures.

After the update, Komsomolskaya Pravda, published a statement saying that “access to administrator interface was hacked” and that “a fake insert was made into a publication.”

They claimed that “inaccurate information was immediately removed.” CNN analysis showed that the update came after 21 hours.

The Kremlin dodged questions on the course of the war in Ukraine, which were put to the Defense Ministry on Tuesday. The ministry said it “does not have the authority” to publicize a count of Russia’s military deaths while the “military operation” is still ongoing.

CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Paul P. Murphy, Vasco Cotovio and Nathan Hodge contributed reporting to this post.

Natalia Hayetska said it was “incredibly difficult” for her and her elderly parents to escape from the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. 

She said her family and their four cats were able to escape to Lviv thanks to “good people” who helped them on a four-day journey.

Conditions in Mariupol are desperate, she said.

“No infrastructure, no potable water — no water at all — no electricity. And there was constant bombing. And not only artillery, they were also using UAVs and some aircrafts. They are dropping bombs all over the city,” Hayetska told CNN’s John Berman.

Her mother, Halyna Zhelezniak, expressed gratitude to her daughter for making sure everyone evacuated together.

“I’m 84, and this was the first time in my life when I felt horror. I couldn’t believe it happened. It was just a shock. I couldn’t believe it. But this is the reality my family and I had to face. I’m grateful to my daughter Natalia for saving us. She simply saved us. She didn’t leave us behind,” she said.

Her father, Ihor Zhelezniak, said that he doesn’t expect to see his city rebuilt again in his lifetime.

“The Mariupol I left will maybe be back in the year 3000, but I’m not going to live that long. Because there are only ruins,” he said.

Watch more:

After days of fighting, Ukrainian forces have regained control of Makariv, a town 30 miles west of Kyiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a post on Facebook on Tuesday. The “state flag of Ukraine was raised over the city of Makariv” as the Russians retreated, the post said. CNN could not confirm the claim by the Ukraine forces.

Meanwhile, Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was found guilty of fraud on Tuesday by a Moscow court, according to state-owned news agency Tass. While not directly connected to the invasion of Ukraine, the verdict coincides with Putin’s broad crackdown on opposition voices and independent media over the past four weeks.

Here’s the latest on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

A man walks amongst the damaged in buildings in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 19.

Ukrainian towns and cities that are withstanding Russia’s attempts to conquer them are being hammered by artillery fire in response, according to local officials.  

In the far east of the country, close to two breakaway pro-Russian statelets, the city of Rubizhne is under constant shelling, regional head Serhii Haidai said in a social media post. 

“The enemy was unable to ‘blitzkrieg’ Rubizhne, so they are destroying the town, targeting hospitals, schools, and residential buildings,” Haidai said. 

Emergency services and ambulances are often unable to reach the wounded, he said, due to the risk of coming under fire. 

Two days ago, Haidai reported the deaths of 56 elderly care home residents in a town about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from Rubizhne. The regional official said a Russian tank had opened fire on the building on March 11, but it had taken several days to confirm the fatalities due to the dangers of constant shelling.

Meanwhile, the head of the Kharkiv region, Oleh Syniehubov, said the city was shelled 84 times overnight, marking an increase in the rate of attacks on the city. 

Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second largest city, sits close to the Russian border, and is a key target for Putin’s invading forces. 

Syniehubov said city neighborhoods and outlying towns had come under fire from Derhachi to the northwest, through Saltivka and Tsyrkuny in the northeast, to the city’s huge tractor plant to the southeast. 

Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers a video message via social media

Russian TV host Vadim Gigin dismissed Arnold Schwarzenegger’s address to the Russian people as US propaganda.

Gigin made the comments on the show “Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov.”

On the show, Gigin referred to Schwarzenegger as the face of “American imperialism and colonialism.”

Gigin criticized Schwarzenegger, adding: “He who is in California will tell us, who live here, who have family members and friends in Ukraine, the truth?” 

It comes after Schwarzenegger posted a video on his verified Twitter account on March 17 speaking against the Russian invasion of Ukraine and asking Russians to resist their country’s disinformation.

“There are things that are going on in the world that are being kept from you, terrible things that you should know about,” Schwarzenegger said in the video. He asked Russians to challenge the war, which he said is being pushed by government leaders. 

“Ukraine did not start this war. Neither did nationalists or Nazis,” he said. “Those in power in the Kremlin started this war.”

“I know the Russian people are not aware such things are happening, so I urge the Russian people and the Russian soldiers in Ukraine to understand the propaganda and the disinformation that you are being told. I ask you to help me spread the truth.”

The video has since garnered more than 35 million views.

CNN’s Travis Caldwell contributed reporting to this post.

Women and children who have fled war-torn Ukraine rest in a shelter set up in a primary school close to the Ukrainian border on March 21, in Przemysl, Poland.

More than 3.5 million refugees have now fled Ukraine, according to the latest update from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

According to the update, 3,532,756 refugees have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began on February 24. 

In a separate update, the agency said it has ramped up supplies of thermal blankets, hot meals, and tents along the Ukrainian border, with a particular focus along the Polish side as temperatures plummet.

People, mainly women and children, arrive at Przemysl train station from Ukraine on March 21, in Przemysl, Poland.

While Ukrainian forces have been celebrating what they say is the re-capture of a town to the west of Kyiv, the mayor of a city to the east of the capital is calling on residents to leave. 

“There is no urgent need to be in the city at the moment. Fighting is already raging around the region. I appeal to the population, be smart and leave the city if you can,” Boryspil mayor Volodymyr Borysenko said in a video statement posted to Facebook.  

Borysenko said authorities would help with the evacuation of those who did not have their own vehicles, adding there were almost daily transfers to the west of Ukraine, where Russian attacks have been much lower in numbers. 

“As practice shows, in those cities where combat is taking place, the fewer civilians in the city, the easier it is for (Ukraine’s) armed forces to operate,” the mayor said. 

According to the United Nations, at least 10 million people have fled their homes following Russia’s invasion, which started almost four weeks ago. 

That figure accounts for almost a quarter of the country’s population, which was calculated at 44 million by the World Bank in 2020. 

Of those who have left their homes, the majority – 6.48 million as of March 16, according to figures provided by the International Organization for Migration on Friday – have been internally displaced since the conflict began on February 24.

CNN’s George Ramsay contributed reporting to this post.

The most troubling takeaway from President Joe Biden’s warning that there is “evolving intelligence” that Russia is exploring options for cyberattacks is that US spy agencies have been spot on so far in predicting Vladimir Putin’s moves.

It was always possible that the Russian leader could seek to impose direct reprisals on the US government and Americans for their support of Ukrainians and crippling sanctions on Russia after his brutal invasion.

Putin could turn his intelligence agencies or related criminal gangs against US government departments, hospitals, critical infrastructure and utilities. Opening a cyber front, or at least hinting at one, would be consistent with Putin’s strategy of escalation, which has seen him rattle nuclear sabers, turn fearsome fire on Ukrainian civilians and use new generation hypersonic missiles.

But the key question is whether the Russian leader would risk a full-bore cyber conflict with Washington, which, as CNN reported last week, has fearsome capabilities of its own that may outmatch Russia’s arsenal and could quickly deliver devastating hits against Russian critical infrastructure.

Read the full analysis here:

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Governor of Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region Dmitry Artyukhov at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Related article Analysis: Putin's next escalation could be a direct cyberattack on the US

Russian forces forcibly deported 2,389 children from Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Monday.

“Such actions are a gross violation of international law, in particular international humanitarian law,” the statement read. 

The Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday that 16,434 people, including 2,389 children were evacuated a day earlier. The evacuations took place in various places, including in the Russia-backed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, and people left of their own volition, according to the ministry. 

UNICEF commented on these latest reports on Tuesday and raised concerns, though noted they have not been able to independently verify them.

“The abduction of children during times of war is one of the six grave violations against children in conflict and is prohibited under international humanitarian law,” UNICEF spokesperson James Elder said. 

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, marches in memory of murdered Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov in Moscow, Russia, on February 29, 2020.

Alexey Navalny has been a longtime and persistent irritant to the government of Vladimir Putin.

In the latest setback for the prominent opposition leader, he was found guilty Tuesday of fraud by a Moscow court, and sentenced to nine years in a maximum-security colony, according to TASS Russian state-news agency. While not directly connected to the invasion of Ukraine, the verdict coincides with Putin’s broad crackdown on opposition voices and independent media over the past four weeks.

Navalny will appeal his guilty verdict of fraud, according to his lawyer, reports RIA, the Russian state-owned domestic news agency.

Background on the opposition leader: Navalny gained notable international attention in August 2020 when he became sick during a flight from Siberia to Moscow and fell into a coma from suspected poisoning.

Navalny was treated in Germany where the government said he had been poisoned with a chemical nerve agent from the Novichok group. Novichok was used in a March 2018 attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia Skripal, in the English cathedral city of Salisbury.

Navalny returned to Russia in January 2021 and was immediately detained by authorities.

One month later, a Moscow court sentenced Navalny to prison for more than two and a half years for violating probation terms from a 2014 case while he was in Germany. 

Personal facts on Navalny:

Read more about Navalny here.

This post has been updated with the latest details on Navalny’s case.

Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny “committed fraud,” according to a judge in Moscow.

“Navalny committed fraud, i.e. the theft of someone else’s property by deception,” Judge Margarita Kotova read out in the verdict, the Russian state news agency TASS reported on Tuesday.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, left, is seen on a screen via a video link during the verdict in his embezzlement and contempt of court trial at the IK-2 prison colony in the town of Pokrov, Russia, on March 22.

Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has been found guilty of fraud, according to state-owned news agency Tass.

An unexploded short range hypersonic ballistic missile, according to Ukrainian authorities, is seen in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, in this handout picture released on March 9.

Russia has used hypersonic missiles in its invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden confirmed Monday.

“And if you’ll notice, (Russia has) just launched the hypersonic missile, because it’s the only thing that they can get through with absolute certainty,” Biden said. “It’s a consequential weapon … it’s almost impossible to stop it. There’s a reason they’re using it.”

But British intelligence and even Biden’s own defense secretary have downplayed Russia’s use of its air-launched Kinzhal missiles.

“I would not see it as a game changer,” Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

And the UK Defense Ministry said the Kinzhal missile is really just an air-launched version of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), which Russia has used repeatedly in its invasion of Ukraine.

Why the fear about hypersonic missiles? First, it’s important to understand the term.

Essentially, all missiles are hypersonic — which means they travel at least five times the speed of sound. Almost any warhead released from a rocket miles in the atmosphere will reach this speed heading to its target. It is not a new technology.

What military powers —  including Russia, China, the United States and North Korea —  are working on now is a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). An HGV is a highly maneuverable payload that can theoretically fly at hypersonic speed while adjusting course and altitude to fly under radar detection and around missile defenses.

An HGV is the weapon that’s almost impossible to stop. And Russia is thought to have an HGV in its arsenal, the Avangard system, which Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 called “practically invulnerable” to Western air defenses.

But the Kinzhal, as a variant of the Iskander SRBM, is not an HGV. While it does have limited maneuverability like the Iskander, its main advantage is that it can be launched from MiG-31 fighter jets, giving it a longer range and the ability to attack from multiple directions, according to a report last year from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Read the full explainer:

FILE In this file photo taken on Wednesday, May 9, 2018, a Russian Air Force MiG-31K jet carries a high-precision hypersonic aero-ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal during the Victory Day military parade to celebrate 73 years since the end of WWII and the defeat of Nazi Germany, in Moscow, Russia. The Russian military says it launched maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean that involve MiG-31 armed with the new Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which arrived at the Russian airbase in Syria for the exercise. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

Related article What to know about Russia's hypersonic missiles

Twice a day for more than one week, CNN producer Mayumi Maruyama has been trying to phone a couple she calls “Tato” and “Mama” — Ukrainian for dad and mom.

They live in a small village outside Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine now encircled by Russian troops who’ve reduced major landmarks to rubble.

A few years ago, in peaceful times, Tato and Mama welcomed Maruyama into their lives, treating her like a daughter as they shared meals and swapped stories about their very different lives. 

Then war came. 

The last time Maruyama spoke to Tato, from her new home in Tokyo, was on March 9.

The connection was shaky, and we were only able to talk for about a minute, Maruyamawrote for CNN. “We don’t have light,” are the only words I could make out from our stilted conversation as the line cut in and out.

Here she picks up the story: On Friday night, I had a little hope. The phone switched from voicemail to busy. Then the next day, after my relatives took me on a trip to help get my mind off the war, I received a message from a neighbor with news.

Tato and Mama were alive.

My friend’s mother was able to get a hold of someone in their village. Tato and Mama were sheltering in a basement with other people, she said. And Mama’s mother, 91-year-old Babusya, was with them.

I remember the basement they are sheltering in. It was cold but spacious and there are no walls between the toilets.

Last week, 10 people were killed by Russian troops in Chernihiv as they tried to buy bread outside the Epicenter K — Ukraine’s version of Home Depot — a warehouse-style building that had already been destroyed by shelling. 

It’s still risky to attempt to escape the village.

But I’m relieved that Tato and Mamo are alive, even as fighting rages around them. 

Read more about their story:

The village where Tato and Mama live is usually very quiet. People grow a lot of their own food to feed their families.

Related article Analysis: Tato and Mama gave me a home in Ukraine. Now they're under attack

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attends House of Councilors (Upper House) budget committee at the Diet building in Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo, on March 22.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday protested Russia’s decision to suspend peace treaty talks to formally end World War II hostilities between Moscow and Tokyo.

The Japanese leader’s comments came after the Russian Foreign Ministry said Monday that Moscow does not intend to continue peace treaty talks with a state that holds an “unfriendly position.”

The Ministry said Moscow would withdraw from dialogue with Japan on joint economic activities on four disputed islands referred to as the “Southern Kurils” by Russia and the “Northern Territories” by Japan. Moscow will also suspend visa-free visits between Japanese citizens and residents to and from the disputed islands, it said.

Japan has moved to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status, Kishida said last week. He also called the Ukraine invasion a “historic atrocity” and said Japan would continue to work closely with G7 nations to strengthen financial sanctions against Russia.

Background to the WW2 treaty dispute: The disputed islands were captured by Soviet forces following Japan’s surrender to Allied Forces in 1945. The resulting disagreement over who has rightful ownership of the islands has soured relations between the two countries, contributing to their continued failure to sign a World War II peace treaty.

Read more about Japan’s comments on Ukraine here:

Related article Analysis: Japan's tough talk on Russia is really about China

A residential building destroyed by a Russian shelling attack is seen in Makariv, Ukraine, on March 16.

After days of fighting, Ukrainian forces have regained control of Makariv, a town 30 miles west of Kyiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a post on Facebook on Tuesday. 

The “state flag of Ukraine was raised over the city of Makariv” as the Russians retreated, the post said. 

CNN could not confirm the claim by the Ukraine forces.

Makariv had sustained significant damage from ongoing Russian airstrikes. CNN verified the authenticity of photos posted to social media on March 12 that showed major damage to apartment complexes, schools and a medical facility.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly claimed it is not targeting civilians.

Read more about the destruction seen in Makariv here.

Nearly 900 Ukrainian refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion have entered Brazil as of March 17, according to the Brazilian Federal Police. 

Of those 894 refugees, 28 people have so far applied to remain in Brazil, the police said.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro signed an executive order on March 3 allowing Ukrainian citizens to stay in Brazil for up to 90 days without a visa and establishing 180-day humanitarian visas for Ukrainians.

Ukrainians are then able to apply for longer-term Brazilian visas.

Some context: Since the start of the invasion, Bolsonaro has avoided condemning or sanctioning Russia, and chief of staff Ciro Nogueira declared shortly after that “Brazil’s position is one of neutrality, of balance.”

Brazil voted in favor of a resolution that condemned Russia at the UN General Assembly on March 2. But the country’s ambassador at the UN, Ronaldo Costa Filho, said there were caveats and that the resolution could not be seen as a green light for the indiscriminate use of sanctions or weapons.

Tania and Dmytro Shvets escaped from Mariupol on March 18.

Dmytro and Tania Shvets spent the first 23 days of the war hiding in their cellar in Mariupol with their 7-year-old daughter, Vlada, and their parents. The family managed to escape the besieged Ukrainian city on Thursday, but their parents stayed behind.

Having fled northeast to the central city of Dnipro, Tania told CNN that Russia’s bombardment has effectively wiped Mariupol off the map, and it’s only a matter of time before other cities in Ukraine face the same fate.

“We did not bathe for three weeks, (we) went to the toilet on a bucket and in a bag,” Tania wrote in a diary she updated each day from her underground hiding place. She shared her diary entries with CNN.

The family rarely left the cellar unless it was absolutely necessary to survive — leaving only to find food and water, and once to help bury neighbors killed by Russian artillery while waiting in line for food.

“The problem is that in our city, we didn’t have anything. No mobile connection. No internet connection. Everything was cut. The gas supply, the water supply. The lights,” Dmytro told CNN. “We were cooking outside, making the fire. Taking wood from the parks. Because there was no other option to survive — sharing food with our neighbors, our relatives.”

The couple said it felt like Russian forces were targeting groups of civilians waiting in line for food, water, or at a pharmacy.

Read more about the family’s escape from Mariupol here.

Mariupol, once home to more than 450,000 people, has been “reduced to ashes,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, as new images show Russian forces dug in around the southern port city. Ukrainian officials had rejected a Russian deadline to surrender the city on Monday.

Meanwhile, a Russian tabloid published, then later removed, a report that Russia’s Defense Ministry had recorded the deaths of nearly 10,000 military members during the invasion.

Here’s the latest on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said any constitutional changes that relate to security guarantees in the country would need to be decided through a referendum and not by him alone.

The President made the comments during an interview with Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne News on Monday.

Some context: It comes as delegates from Ukraine and Russia have held a series of peace talks. Zelensky said he has not met with Russian negotiators but told his delegation that any significant compromise would require a referendum.

When a Suspilne reporter asked about the limit of the compromise Ukraine would go for, Zelensky said: “I think that without this meeting you cannot truly understand what they are really prepared to do in order to stop the war and what they are prepared to do if we are not ready for this or that compromise.” 

Zelensky repeated previous comments that he was ready to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The issue of the occupied territories is important for us. But I am certain that a solution will not come at this meeting,” he said.

Here’s the background to the “occupied territories:” In early 2014, mass protests in Kyiv known as Euromaidan forced out a Russia-friendly president after he refused to sign an EU association agreement. Russia responded by annexing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and fomenting a separatist rebellion in Ukraine’s east, which seized control of part of the Donbas region. In late February ahead of the invasion, Putin recognized the two separatist territories in eastern Ukraine as independent states.

Russian artillery positions west of the Russian-held Antonov Air Base.

New satellite images from Maxar Technologies show fires from military strikes and growing flooding from the Irpin River.

The images, taken on Monday, also show Russian artillery positions west of the Russian-held Antonov Air Base northwest of the capital, Kyiv. Those positions match similar scenes at other Russian artillery positions — earthen berms have been constructed around them. 

Damage from Russian military strikes in Irpin.

Damage from Russian military strikes are also seen across Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, in the satellite images. Two distinct fires are seen in central Irpin near a complex of city government and apartment buildings. 

Two other fires can also be seen in another satellite image among a group of buildings near a school in the city and a residential area near a lake. 

Flooding from the Irpin River.

An additional satellite image shows growing floodwaters from the Irpin River. 

CNN previously reported that a dam along the Dnieper River was flooding the Irpin River basin and its tributaries. The Irpin River is critical to the Russian advance toward Kyiv; if the Russians cannot cross it, they can’t take Kyiv from the west.

It’s unclear how the dam began flooding the Irpin River basin: whether the gates were opened on purpose by the Ukrainians to flood the area, or it was hit by a military strike. 

Russian military vehicles and tanks seen on the streets of the "left bank" neighborhood in Mariupol.

Russian military vehicles, including artillery positions, in Mariupol are seen in new satellite images from Maxar Technologies. The images were taken on March 19.

One of the images shows Russian military vehicles and tanks on the streets of the “left bank” neighborhood in Mariupol — the day Russian-backed separatists took control of government buildings.

Russian military artillery positions northeast of Mariupol.

Additional imagery shows Russian military artillery positions northeast of Mariupol and smoke rising from burning apartment buildings.

Smoke rises from burning apartment buildings.

When Serhii woke up to news reports that a bomb had flattened Mariupol’s Drama Theater, where hundreds of people had been sheltering, he couldn’t breathe.

His wife and their two daughters were inside.

A day before the attack, the 56-year-old editor, who lives in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, received a panicked call from his 30-year-old daughter.

He hadn’t heard from her since March 1, when Russian forces intensified their siege of Mariupol, the strategic port city, launching a relentless barrage of rockets and bombs from land, sky and sea.

As electricity and internet service went out, Mariupol was largely cut off from the outside world. Serhii, who asked that only his first name be used for security reasons, waited desperately for any update from his girls.

Read more:

This satellite image shows a damaged theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, which was bombed March 16, 2022.

Related article They thought they would be safe in the theater. Then it was bombed

Multiple buildings burn amid Russian strikes on Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 20.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address released Monday that the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol is being “reduced to ashes” by Russia’s military aggression, but added that the city will “survive.”   

Mariupol, which before the war was home to around 450,000 people, has been under near constant attack from Russian forces since early March with satellite images showing significant destruction to residential areas. 

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that “what’s happening Mariupol is a massive war crime.”

Zelensky in his address went on to again urge Ukrainians to “do everything you can to defend our country, to save our people.” 

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started in late February, “we are seeing more and more [Ukrainian] heroes. Once ordinary Ukrainians, and now true fighters,” he said. 

The Ukrainian leader also said that ordinary citizens in Ukraine are “rising” to the point that Russia “doesn’t believe that this is the reality,” and added, “we will make Russia believe.”  

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country’s war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.

Without a top, theater-wide commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials.

Units participating in different Russian offensives across Ukraine have failed to connect, these sources say, and in fact, appear to be acting independently with no overarching operational design.

Russian forces also appear to be having significant communication issues. Soldiers and commanders have at times used commercial cell phones and other unsecure channels to talk to each other, making their communications easier to intercept and helping Ukraine develop targets for their own counterstrikes.

It’s all led to what these sources say has been a disjointed — and at times chaotic — operation that has surprised US and western officials. 

Historically, there have been instances in which Russia has publicized this kind of information, but the Ministry of Defense has not made any reference to a top commander for operations in Ukraine and did not respond to CNN’s request for comment on the topic.  

And while it is possible that Russia has quietly designated a top commander to oversee the invasion — even if the US has been unable to identify that individual — the state of combat operations would suggest “he’s inept,” according to Hertling.

Read more:

Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by the Ukrainian forces on the side of a road in Lugansk region on February 26, 2022. - Russia on February 26 ordered its troops to advance in Ukraine "from all directions" as the Ukrainian capital Kyiv imposed a blanket curfew and officials reported 198 civilian deaths. (Photo by Anatolii Stepanov / AFP) (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

Related article Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure.

A senior NATO intelligence official said on Monday that signs are pointing to a stalemate emerging in Russia’s war on Ukraine, with Russian ground forces remaining stalled and Russian combat aircraft unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine.

“If we are not in a stalemate already, we are rapidly approaching one,” the official told reporters during a briefing at NATO headquarters. “And it’s quite a thing to say when you consider the disparity in strength when this fight began.” 

“You don’t get to this point if you didn’t make a series of mistakes,” the official added.

The official noted a stalemate is particularly dangerous, however, given how Russia has resorted to using less precise, more brutal weaponry against civilian targets since its campaign stalled. 

Russia is not backing down either, despite their losses, the official said. In the last few days Russian forces have continued to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve the logistical support in both Kyiv and the southern operational directions, the official said. The Belarusian government, meanwhile, is “preparing the environment to justify a Belarussian offensive against Ukraine,” the official added. Ukrainian officials have been warning publicly that Belarus might join the war.

It remains NATO’s assessment that Russia’s top goal is still to capture the Ukrainian capital and force a change of government there, as well as force Ukraine to adopt a neutral position with NATO and demilitarize. “I don’t think [Putin] has backed off any of his goals,” the official said.