US and Ukraine at odds over threat of Russian invasion

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the troop movements from Russia along the border with Ukraine and into Belarus are “different” from what the US has seen “in recent memory,” during a joint press briefing with the Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon today.

Milley said these movements are different from Russian troop annual exercises, which the Pentagon watches closely.

“They do annual exercises, and we watch those closely. But this is different. So, we’ll continue to monitor very, very closely. But yet it does feel different,” Milley said.

Meanwhile: In spite of the ratcheting warnings of impending war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has signaled that diplomatic discussions between Russia and the West will press on — at least for now. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Friday that Moscow did not want war with Ukraine.

The US hasn’t “actually moved any troops” in response to the buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border, Department of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said the US is “increasing our readiness levels.”

Earlier in his remarks, Milley said that “there is a small contingent of US and NATO advisers and trainers currently in Ukraine. The United States has zero offensive combat weapon systems, nor any permanent forces nor bases in Ukraine.” 

“Our role is limited in that we help train, advise and assist with tactics, techniques and procedures. We participate in institutional development with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. As the secretary of defense has noted, we continue to provide military material support to Ukraine along with many other countries from NATO. And we are ready, capable and prepared to uphold our obligation under treaty to NATO. As mentioned by the secretary, an attack against one NATO ally is an attack against all,” he said.

The Department of Defense will “continue to provide President Biden with options to defend” US national security interests in “response to Russian actions,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said during a news briefing at the Pentagon on Friday.

Austin also said the Department will “contribute” to NATO response forces and “coordinate” with NATO allies in the face of Russian aggression.

Austin said there is “no reason” the situation between Russia and Ukraine has to “devolve into conflict,” but “whatever he decides, the United States will stand with our allies and partners.” 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said “we strongly encourage Russia to stand down” and to pursue a resolution regarding Ukraine “through diplomacy.”

Milley went on to outline where things stand right along the Ukraine border, saying “the Russian Federation has amassed upwards, at this time, of over 100,000 ground forces, air forces, naval forces, special forces, cyber, electronic warfare, command and control, logistics, engineers and other capabilities along the Ukraine border.”

Speaking at a briefing on Friday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said conflict with Russia over Ukraine “is not inevitable.”

Austin also reiterated US support for Ukraine through security assistance material and for “standing shoulder to shoulder” with NATO allies.

While tensions between Russia and Ukraine are at their highest in years, the Kremlin has also said it does not want conflict.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States is taking the buildup of tens of thousands of Russian forces at the Ukrainian border “very seriously,” adding that his department stands “unified in opposition” with North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions.

Austin also said the department is on the lookout for Russian misinformation.

“Any Russian attack or further incursion into Ukraine would not only ignite conflict, it would also violate the bedrock principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination,” Austin said.

“This is something that we’re taking very seriously, both as a strong partner of Ukraine and as one of 30 members of NATO. We’re unified in opposition to Russia’s attempts to undermine those core values and threaten peace and security in Europe,” he said.

US Embassy in Kyiv on Monday.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said the decision by the United States and United Kingdom to withdraw some staff from their embassies in Kyiv was a “mistake.”

“I think it was a mistake,” Zelensky told foreign journalists in Kyiv on Friday. “I say this openly.”

The Ukrainian president went on to give Greece as an example, which had kept its diplomats in Mariupol, a city on the frontline in eastern Ukraine. 

“In the city of Mariupol, which is on the contact line, where the contact line is very close, where you can hear cannons fire, the Greeks didn’t take anyone away,” Zelensky said. “Everyone is looking at this everyone understands which countries of EU respond to how the Britain, how the United States react.”

Zelensky added that he thought US and British diplomats should stay in Kyiv, comparing them to ship captains, who in his view should be the last ones to leave.

“I don’t think we have a Titanic here; Ukraine is moving forward,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is ready to meet with his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, but noted that a conversation between the two would have to be “serious.” 

“I’m not afraid of any format of the meeting bilateral, OK, I don’t care, I’m ready,” Zelensky said in news conference with foreign journalists on Friday. “I mean, it has to be serious. People don’t understand the value of the human life and that’s what it’s about. I do support serious dialogue.”

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are at their highest in years, with a buildup of Russian troops continuing near the border between the two countries.

Zelensky said earlier to journalists that he recognized the threat from Russia was “imminent” and “constant,” but added that his country as learned to live with it. 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a news conference for the foreign media in Kyiv, Ukraine on January 28.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the leaders of western nations to not say that a Russia-Ukraine war “will start tomorrow” as this sows panic and damages the Ukrainian economy. 

“I started talking to the leaders of the countries and to explain to them that we need to stabilize the economy,” he explained. “They are saying ‘tomorrow is the war.’ This means panic. Calm the market panic in the financial sector.”

While speaking to foreign journalists on Friday, Zelensky also said he recognized the threat from Russia was “imminent” and “constant,” but added that his country as learned to live with it. 

“We are very grateful for the assistance, but we have learned to live with this and develop with this,” he said. “We have learned to protect ourselves, to defend ourselves, and those are our lives to lead.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the threat of sanctions against Russia is not designed to protect his country, but rather to protect the European Union, in response to a question by CNN Senior International Correspondent Matthew Chance. 

He questioned the delay in imposing the sanctions that countries are threatening Russia with.

“Many countries of the world discuss the sanctions, which will be applied only after the fact [Russian further invades,] and I’m being very honest and that’s what I mean.”

Zelensky also said he understood that his country had to further develop its military before joining NATO, but said “not everything depends on us [Ukraine].”

“We have to develop our own army, we have to protect ourselves, but we understand right now perfectly well that if we are not part of NATO, then we are on our own in terms of protecting ourselves,” he said.

“We need to have something that we can count on,” he added while discussing NATO support.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gives a statement on Ukraine at the EU headquarters on January 24 in Brussels, Belgium.

The US and European Union reaffirmed their commitment to energy security in Ukraine and in Europe more broadly, in a statement Friday. CNN reported earlier this week that the Biden administration is making contingency plans to shore up Europe’s energy supplies should a Russian invasion of Ukraine create gas shortages and roil the global economy, according to senior administration officials.

Some background: Gas supplies from Russia play an essential role in power generation and home heating in central and eastern Europe. So, few topics are more political than energy security. With natural gas prices already near a record high, many fear further tension could cause more pain to European consumers.

While Russia has denied using energy to put pressure on Europe, the International Energy Agency has blamed Moscow for contributing to the European gas prices crisis by cutting supply. This reaffirmed commitment from the US and EU comes in preparation for the possibility that Russia could weaponize its gas exports to Europe to retaliate for any possible sanctions.

“We are jointly committed to Europe’s energy security and sustainability and to accelerating the global transition to clean energy. We also share the objective of ensuring the energy security of Ukraine and the progressive integration of Ukraine with the EU gas and electricity markets,” US President Biden and European Union President Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint statement.

The statement continued, “The United States and the EU are working jointly towards continued, sufficient, and timely supply of natural gas to the EU from diverse sources across the globe to avoid supply shocks, including those that could result from a further Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Read more here.

With 8,500 US troops already on alert at bases throughout the country, the Pentagon is considering whether to bolster NATO allies with US troops already in Europe, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Friday on CNN’s New Day.

In spite of the ratcheting warnings of impending war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has signaled that diplomatic discussions between Russia and the West will press on — at least for now. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Friday that Moscow did not want war with Ukraine.

No decision has been made yet to deploy the 8,500 US troops to Europe, Kirby said.

CNN reported earlier this week that the US and a handful of allies are in discussions to deploy thousands more troops to Eastern European NATO countries before any potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as a show of support in the face of Moscow’s ongoing aggression.

Among the countries considering accepting the deployments are Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The deployments would number approximately 1,000 personnel to each country and would be similar to the forward battle groups currently stationed in the Baltic States and Poland.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his steady build-up of forces along Ukraine’s borders, Kirby said, giving him more options should he choose to invade Ukraine. But it remains unclear whether Putin has made a final decision to launch an operation.

“What we’re trying to discern is exactly what options he might try to endeavor to pursue,” Kirby said.

As for the continued massing of forces, Kirby said it has not been “chaotic or dramatic,” but it has moved at a steady pace.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov speaks to the media after addressing the State Duma, the Lower House of the Russian Parliament in Moscow, Russia, on January 26.

In spite of the ratcheting warnings of impending war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has signaled that diplomatic discussions between Russia and the West will press on – at least for now.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Friday that Moscow did not want war with Ukraine, cooling talk of conflict a day after US President Joe Biden said that Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine in February.

In an interview with Russian radio stations, Lavrov said that the United States’ response to Russian security demands contained “some grains of reason,” a small ray of hope that diplomatic compromise could be reached on outstanding issues, such as military exercises.

But the Kremlin has indicated that a wider agreement is unlikely, given that one of Russia’s primary demands – a halt to NATO expansion – has been kept firmly off the table. Lavrov added that the NATO response was “full of itself” and that if the alliance’s position, which he said was “based on false arguments,” remained unchanged, he saw little room for an accord.

On Wednesday, the US and NATO delivered their written responses to an array of demands for security guarantees that Russia laid out in December. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US response to Russia “sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia choose it.”

In response, Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that there were “few reasons for optimism,” but that Putin was reviewing the documents and would not rush to any conclusions. Putin has remained silent on his military maneuvers, but Russian officials have repeatedly denied any intention to invade Ukraine, while arguing that NATO support for the country constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

Lavrov said Friday that he expected to have a follow-up discussion with Blinken in the coming weeks to discuss the proposals.

United States Ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan says despite repeated public assurances from Russian officials that they do not want to further invade Ukraine, “the facts on the ground tell a much different story.”

Sullivan called the Russian build-up of troops – more than 100,000 – at the Ukrainian border as “extraordinary,” which give Moscow the ability to “further invade Ukraine, with no notice, with no forewarning.”

“President Biden himself has said that the facts show that Russia is in a position to unleash a further invasion of Ukraine,” he added.

The ambassador said the US assessment of the threat of a Russian invasion remains “real” and “imminent.”

“I’ve said, and I want to emphasize again, the threat is very real, and it’s imminent,” Sullivan told journalists during a briefing on Friday. “As President Biden said it could happen, given the build-up that we’ve seen, with very little notice.”

Meanwhile: In spite of the ratcheting warnings of impending war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has signaled that diplomatic discussions between Russia and the West will press on — at least for now. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Friday that Moscow did not want war with Ukraine.

How imminent is the threat of a full-scale war on the Ukrainian border? It’s the question on many minds. While diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis are ramping up, the Russian troop buildup also continues, according to the Pentagon.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position is that the threat from Russia remains “dangerous but ambiguous,” and it is not certain that an attack will take place, a senior Ukrainian official told CNN.

But US President Joe Biden told Zelensky on a call Thursday that there was a distinct possibility Russia could launch an invasion in February, according to National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne.

Taking that into account, here’s a look at how soon an incursion could happen:

Analysts say Russia has a menu of options to attack at any moment it chooses, from shock-and-awe style air strikes to a ground invasion along a broad front. But while it has moved large amounts of military equipment into place in areas bordering Ukraine, not all the personnel needed for a ground operation are ready.

Troops can be deployed in less than 72 hours, the agency said, since they need only be sent from their bases by plane or train across the country.

Russia is also in the process of deploying “quite a sizable formation” in Belarus from its Eastern Military District (EMD), which extends from Russia’s Pacific Coast to Siberia, Janes said. This formation, which Janes first detected moving west early this month, appears to include troops, logistics and communications resources as well as military equipment.

Russia has said the force is there for a Russian-Belarusian training exercise. But according to Janes, the troops “are essentially deploying as close to ready to go as you can be.”

Judging by what has been pre-positioned on Russian soil near Ukraine’s border, it considers Russia would require “maybe a maximum of two weeks of intense movement to bring all of the pieces into position” if it were to launch an invasion.

Whether Russia would want to put large numbers of boots on the ground remains unclear, particularly given the risk of casualties.

“We’ve seen (this) in Chechnya, in Afghanistan, in Georgia and its covert deployments to Ukraine, that military losses actually do generate political pressure.”

Russia could instead opt to use its very long-range intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets to target critical national infrastructure within Ukraine, such as military bases or even power plants and bridges, Cranny-Evans said. “The goal is to either stop a contact conflict from emerging or shape the battlefield so that when one does emerge, it’s much more favorable to the Russian forces,” he said.

US intelligence findings in December estimated that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine “as soon as early 2022.” Since then, US officials have stuck to that line.

“In terms of timelines, what we’ve seen up until now has been very overt signaling of the intention for the ability to invade Ukraine,” said Cranny-Evans. But the Russians are “taking their time” to get the final pieces into place in order to leave space for conversations which might allow them to achieve their political goals, such as installing a pro-Kremlin or even neutral leader in Kiev, without having to fight, he suggested.

If it does come to an invasion, he considers that Russia could move the necessary troops into place in the space of 72 hours. “It’s the forces that Russia already has in the Southern Military District on the borders with Ukraine that would probably take on the first bit of fighting,” Cranny-Evans said.

The Kremlin denies it is planning to attack and argues that it is NATO’s support for Ukraine – including increased weapons supplies and military training – that constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

Read the full story – which also looks at what a potential invasion might look like – here:

ROSTOV, RUSSIA - JANUARY 26: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY â MANDATORY CREDIT - "RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY / HANDOUT" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) A screen grab captured from a video shows military units of the Southern Military District of Russia are on their way to a training site in the south of the country, for military exercises in Rostov, Russia on January 26, 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry Thursday announced the start of military exercises with the participation of more than 10,000 soldiers near the border with Ukraine. Soldiers will train in tactical actions as part of reconnaissance, offensive operations, says Russian Defense Ministry (Photo by Russian Defence Ministry/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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A satellite image shows Russian battle groups and vehicles parked in Yelnya, Russia on January 19.

Diplomatic efforts to defuse the military crisis in Eastern Europe were forging ahead on Friday, even as the Pentagon cautioned that Russia was sending more of its troops to the Ukrainian border, and US President Joe Biden reaffirmed America’s readiness to “respond decisively” in the case of an invasion.

Russia has built a formidable force near its border with Ukraine, massing tens of thousands of troops and heavy weapons, and establishing new bases in the region since last year. With Russian forces now stationed in Belarus for joint exercises, Ukraine is surrounded on three sides.

On Thursday, the Pentagon, which has put 8,500 US troops on high alert to deploy to Eastern Europe, said that Russia was continuing to ramp up its military presence.

Kirby said the buildup has been “not dramatic,” but “also not sclerotic.” 

Also on Thursday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank released open source satellite imagery and analysis on the Russian build-up in Ukraine, which tallied with other assessments indicating a significant and sizeable presence of Russian ground troops, tanks, small arms and mobile artillery. “If peace talks fail, an escalation between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia could extend well beyond Eastern Europe and include retaliatory measures that are global in nature,” the authors of the report warned.

The build-up of Russian forces has raised fears among Western and Ukrainian officials that the Kremlin could launch a military operation imminently. Biden, in a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday, suggested that Russian forces could invade as soon as February, the White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne told CNN. In response, Zelensky restated his position that the threat from Russia remains “dangerous but ambiguous,” and it is not certain that an attack will take place, a senior Ukrainian official told CNN.

For background: Zelensky and his government have repeatedly downplayed the danger of a Russian invasion, noting that the threat has existed for years and has not become greater in recent months. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been rumbling since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and fomented a rebellion in Ukraine’s east. Despite a cease fire in 2015, the two sides have not seen a stable peace.

New signs of a fracture between the US and Ukraine over the imminence of a possible Russian invasion could seriously undermine President Joe Biden’s muscular front against Vladimir Putin in their escalating standoff.

Frustration in Kyiv has mounted in recent days over escalating US rhetoric on the crisis, even as Moscow pours more troops into positions near the Ukrainian border. Washington and its allies have been waging an unusually open and vocal public relations warfare campaign – an approach that primarily appears rooted in genuine fears of a major conflagration in Ukraine.

But there are clear signs that the strategy is also designed to pile pressure on Putin and to sharpen his strategic dilemma while compelling US allies in Europe into taking tougher stands. It may offer political cover to Biden by showing that he was not caught off guard if Russia does invade. The strategy also shields a President, who is wobbling at home, from attacks by Republican hawks keen to portray him as a weak appeaser ahead of midterm elections.

Read the full analysis here:

President Joe Biden listens to reporter's questions during a meeting on efforts to lower prices for working families, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Monday, Jan. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

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View of pipe systems and shut-off devices at the gas receiving station of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline at Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany, on January 7.

The United States and its allies are racing to draw up contingency plans in case supplies of Russian gas crucial to powering businesses and heating homes in Europe are choked off by conflict in Ukraine.

Europe would struggle to survive for long without Russian gas, and finding alternative sources presents a huge logistical challenge – a reality that’s stoking concerns about the continent’s access to energy during an already difficult winter.

Senior White House officials told reporters this week they are talking to countries and companies about ramping up output. They’re also trying to identify alternative sources of natural gas that could be rerouted to Europe.

Yet executing such a large intervention in energy markets would be tricky. New pipelines and gas liquefaction facilities take years to build. And redirecting large volumes of the fossil fuel at a time when the global market and transport networks are already stretched would require cooperation from major gas exporters like Qatar, which may not have much wiggle room.

Read the full story here:

Pipework at a gas collect point of the Kasimovskoye underground gas storage facility, operated by Gazprom PJSC, in Kasimov, Russia, on Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021.

Related article Analysis: Europe could live with less Russian gas. A complete shutdown would be 'catastrophic'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with U.S. President Joe Biden over the telephone in his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Friday.

The Biden administration is taking the reins in the tense standoff between Russia and Ukraine, coordinating the response to Moscow’s threatening maneuvers in Eastern Europe alongside his European Union counterparts with all the urgency of a Cold War-era crisis.

In the latest sign of that urgency, US President Joe Biden held a “long and frank” phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday, trying to impress upon him the imminent possibility of a Russian invasion. The call came as the Pentagon warned that Russia had ramped up its military presence on the Ukrainian border rapidly in just 24 hours.

Western officials are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the tensions, with Biden emerging as the leader in efforts to counter threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Ukraine and NATO.

On Wednesday, the US and NATO submitted separate written responses to Russia’s publicly aired concerns, an overture that Moscow had requested. The Russians, who are demanding that the West promise Ukraine will never join NATO, delivered a muted reaction to the US responses on Thursday, saying there were “few reasons for optimism, but would refrain from conceptual assessments,” casting a cloud over the future of negotiations.

The US is not only leaning on diplomatic efforts, having put 8,500 troops on notice for deployment to Eastern Europe, sending weapons to Ukraine, and threatening to halt the opening of Nord Stream 2, a key pipeline that would send Russian gas to Western Europe.

Here’s what else you need to know today: