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Predictions of the 2018 election results
Senate Race
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HARRY’S LATEST UPDATE
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Most Likely Outcome
is forecasted to beat by
is forecasted to swing
DEMOCRAT SEAT CONTROL
REPUBLICAN SEAT CONTROL
Less likely election result
More likely
Margin of error predicts outcome 95% of the time
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Predictions Scorecard
Circles are drawn to mark each prediction made since The Forecast started. The timeline below shows a detailed history of the estimates.
Estimated point advantage over time
Harry Explains the Forecast
What is the margin of error?
Look, we’re making a forecast. It’s not going to be perfect. Anything within this range could reasonably happen, though we expect the result to be close to our best estimate.
How does the prediction update?
The prediction updates every day as more polls come out. The prediction should become more accurate the closer we are to the election.
More questions?
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Learn More About this State
Political history and leanings
Last Presidential Election
+9 pts Rep.
Last Senate Election
+16 pts Rep.
Weighted Average Partisanship
+14 pts Rep.
Demographics
Rural
15% rural
Ethnicity
54% non-hispanic white
Education
28% with a college degree
- National Average (Source: ACS, Census)
By Harry Enten, Sam Petulla, Parker Quinn, Brice Acree, Vijith Assar, Matthew Conlen, Brad Oyler, Will Mullery, Joyce Tseng and Mark Barilla.
