Today is messy for the markets but the economic calendar is actually rather quiet. Tomorrow, that’s going to be very different.
As every Thursday, we’ll get the Labor Department’s report on weekly jobless claims. Economists expect to see another 775,000 seasonally-adjusted first-time claims for unemployment benefits. That would be marginally less than the prior week, when initial claims fell below 800,000 for the first time since March.
But these numbers don’t tell us the whole story. For example, they don’t include claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which is available for workers that aren’t eligible for regular jobless benefits, such as the self-employed.
Continued claims for benefits are expected at 7.7 million, which would be more than half a million less than the prior week. But again, the devil’s in the details: Unemployed workers have increasingly been maxing out their state benefits and subsequently rolling onto other government programs like Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation.
Jobless claims continue to be an important indicator of how the recovery is going, but it won’t be the biggest report tomorrow.
The Commerce Department will also publish the first look at how the economy fared during the third quarter, in terms of gross domestic product. A big bounce from the second quarter’s decline is expected, even though the economy isn’t out of the woods yet.
Read more about tomorrow’s GDP report here.