Stocks are near all-time highs today, as no economic data or bad news is distracting investors from being optimistic about the future.
But not so fast. There could easily be some wobbles in store.
Even though there’s only a 10% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, with valuations this high, there’s a very high chance — 75% — stocks will see a 10% drop in the near term, according to Joe Duran, head of Goldman Sachs (GS) Personal Financial Management.
Duran’s advice for investors who have gotten heavily into growth and tech stocks? “Rebalance to value stocks.”
But even though diversification is key, Duran won’t be recommending cryptocurrencies any time soon.
“We don’t today suggest people invest in digital currencies,” he said, but he thinks the underlying technology — blockchain — is interesting for wide-ranging applications.
As for worries about inflation, Duran cautioned not to worry too much just yet.
“The market does perfectly fine if inflation goes up steadily,” he said on the CNN Business digital live show Markets Now. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is doing fine, he said, suggesting the bump in inflation is only temporary.