Wall Street is buzzing about another unusual move in financial markets.
Futures contracts on Thursday began pricing in a slightly negative fed funds rate in early 2021 from the Federal Reserve.
At face value, that suggests investors believe the Fed will take President Trump’s advice and embrace the subzero rates adopted by Europe and Japan.
Yet analysts told CNN Business the Fed funds market move – coming just weeks after crude oil futures went negative for the first time ever – should be taken with a grain of salt. They blamed technical factors such as low liquidity and investor positioning.
“There’s some weirdness going on in that market. It went silly,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital.
Plus, though the Fed dropped rates to zero in March to fight the coronavirus crisis, the central bank’s officials aren’t fans of negative interest rates – which critics say have done more harm than good.
“A straight read tells you the market expects the Fed will take rates negative. I fundamentally disagree with that view,” said Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at Bank of America.
Then again, few imagined in January the Fed would be back at zero and buying unlimited amounts of bonds. Yet here we are.