Scribble

Audie Cornish

00:00:00

'Recently on our show, we've talked about the advantages and the limitations of modern polling because we hear about poll numbers all the time, and there's a tendency for journalists to take that data, slice it, dice it, and then draw conclusions to help explain what's coming around the corner. Of course, in the real world, political opinions are squishier more idiosyncratic, more personal than any data set can ever tell you. That's why CNN's John King, who's covered presidential elections for four decades, decided to get out of Washington, D.C., and to talk to voters directly. And for the past year, he's been interviewing and re-interviewing people across the country, learning the messy, contradictory, revealing truths that don't fit in the crosstabs of a poll. With that in mind, I'm thrilled to turn over today's episode and the next two Monday shows of The Assignment to my colleague John King and his series "All Over the Map."

John King

00:00:57

If you've watched CNN on election nights these past few years, you've probably seen me standing in front of a huge touchscreen map of the United States, zooming in on states and counties and voting districts all lit up in shades of red and blue. We at CNN call it the Magic Wall.

Jake Tapper

00:01:12

So let's get over to John King, who has agreed to take a stroll over to the magic wall to tell us just.

Anderson Cooper

00:01:17

John King joins us. He's back at the magic wall.

Wolf Blitzer

00:01:20

I'm going to go to John King, he's with me over here at the magic wall. I understand we have some breaking news.

John King

00:01:25

I've spent lots of late nights breaking down election results for you. I've been at it almost four decades.

John King

00:01:31

Here at the Gore campaign tonight, initially, elation in the crowd here when we first called Florida and said the vice president was going to win that state. Barack Obama said he would stretch the map. He would turn red states blue. And look, he kept that promise. He said he would campaign. At the moment, six states that President Obama carried four years ago have flipped. Stunning as you look at it. So let's go back to.

John King

00:01:51

This, believe it or not, is election number ten. They're all different. Different candidates, different issues, different times. This one though, feels really different. For starters, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is the election hardly anyone wants. The polling on that question is overwhelming. The country's mood is also different, and it's complicated, angry at times, indifferent at others, polarized, especially when it comes to Trump and Biden. That's why I decided it was time to leave the anchor chair. Get out on the road for this one. I loved anchoring Inside Politics for seven years, including through both the 2016 and the 2020 elections. But I didn't want to cover this one sitting at a desk in Washington, D.C.. Now I have what I call my "Back to the Future" dream job. I first traveled America as a reporter for the Associated Press, covering campaigns and talking to voters. And for the past year, that's what I've been doing again.

Voter

00:02:50

I'm a Reagan Republican.

Voter

00:02:51

I would definitely describe myself as a little more on the liberal side.

John King

00:02:55

We've been to Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and we've been listening to the people who are going to settle another contentious race.

John King

00:03:07

So have you had any conversation with friends who think maybe they vote for Trump?

Voter

00:03:11

I get people saying they're not going to vote. That's my fear.

Voter

00:03:15

The only reason I haven't closed the door is because I think he still has an ability to change course and set a precedent for the future.

John King

00:03:23

Trying to live the 2024 election through their eyes and through their experiences.

Voter

00:03:29

I can write someone in or I can hold my nose and vote for Trump.

Voter

00:03:35

I will vote for anyone but Trump.

John King

00:03:38

I'm John King, and this is "All Over the Map." A new series from CNN.

Jake Tapper

00:03:48

There's a lot, a lot, that people in Washington get wrong about the rest of the country. That is, by far, the biggest lesson to me in nearly 40 years. Yes, nearly 40 years now covering politics. And that disconnect, in my view, has never been greater than it is right now, which is why I think these conversations with these voters are so important. Over the next few weeks, I'll be introducing you to a bunch of them. These are people with wildly different political beliefs, really different backgrounds. And I can't stop thinking about these voters because what they have in common for all of their differences is that they are frustrated beyond frustrated. They wish they had better choices. They say, really? This is the best we can do? Most of them, even if they're leaning one way or the other, they're wrestling with this. They're just not quite sure how they're going to vote come November. And these people? The reason we want to visit them and revisit them is because they live in the counties and the towns that are going to decide this election. We're starting in Pennsylvania. President Joe Biden, of course, has very deep roots here. He was born in Scranton, and he spent his career talking about the family values, the blue collar work ethic the city represents. In 2016, Donald Trump stunned the political world by winning Pennsylvania, beating Hillary Clinton there by more than 44,000 votes.

Michael Smerconish

00:05:12

The key to Donald Trump's unlikely victory the crucial swing states that had gone for Obama in 2012, including my home state of Pennsylvania. As I had said.

John King

00:05:20

It was the first time a Republican had carried Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush, Bush Sr. did it back in 1988. In 2020, though, Biden turned that result on its head, winning Pennsylvania by over 80,000 votes. On his way, of course, to securing his first term as president.

Wolf Blitzer

00:05:37

Joseph R. Biden Jr is elected the 46th president of the United States. We're able to make this projection because CNN projects Biden wins Pennsylvania. The former vice president.

John King

00:05:51

'Now, 44,000 votes, 80,000 votes. Those are really thin margins. Especially, consider this, back in April, in the Pennsylvania Republican primary, 158,000 GOP voters cast ballots for Nikki Haley, even though she had long since dropped out of the race. So here's a big question. A very big question. What are those Republican voters who chose Haley as a protest vote going to do come November? Our first stop, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, literally borders Philadelphia. Because of its proximity to the city, because of the demographic mix, the blue collar people in close, the more affluent suburban people far out, Bucks County has remained one of the most competitive battlegrounds in America. Hillary Clinton wins Bucks in 2016, but just barely. Biden did, too, in 2020, a slightly better margin than Hillary Clinton. So we came back to Bucks County, to the people who are living this tug-of-war. One stop? Doylestown, which sort of straddles the suburban-exurban line in Bucks County, it's got a little downtown, yes, it's got a Chuck E. Cheese, not far from the city, but you're just minutes away from the farms and the country b&bs.

John King

00:07:03

All right, here we go. Give you a clap to sync. We're here to meet this man.

Michael Pesce

00:07:08

Michael Pesce in Doylestown, Pennsylvania.

John King

00:07:11

Pesce is 60. He works at a meat processing plant. One of those blue collar guys. He's really proud of his job, loves the work and loves the people.

Michael Pesce

00:07:19

And I started in the smokehouse there. So when people would ask me what I did for a living, I used to tell them, I make bacon for a living. We are employee owned. When the owners decided they wanted to get out of the business, they wanted to give it to their employees because they didn't want us to be taken over by some large conglomerate. We export our product all over the world. So world trade matters to me. It's how I make my living, you know? I mean, so those kind of things matter. And that's what I need in a president. I need someone who's going to help me for the next few years while I work and make my life easier when I when I retire.

Jake Tapper

00:07:52

So, in 2016, you voted for...

Michael Pesce

00:07:54

Trump.

John King

00:07:54

And in 2020?

Michael Pesce

00:07:57

Biden.

John King

00:07:58

And you got an election in a few months. What are you going to do?

Michael Pesce

00:08:00

If I had my choice, I wouldn't vote for either. But I will vote for Biden. I will vote for anyone but Trump.

John King

00:08:06

Why?

Michael Pesce

00:08:07

Well, he tried to overthrow our government, and that's a problem with me. Served in the U.S. military. I just have very strong feelings about what being American means. The president is the leader of the country. He's the leader of the military. Donald Trump is not that guy.

John King

00:08:26

So, you made a choice long after she was gone from the race, to go out and vote in a Pennsylvania primary for Nikki Haley.

Michael Pesce

00:08:33

Yes.

John King

00:08:33

Why?

Michael Pesce

00:08:35

One, it wasn't Trump. Two, I've always liked Nikki Haley. I think that her brand of Republican conservatism is a good thing. I'm not 100% sold on everything that she says, but, you know, she is more of a a Republican that's willing to work to get us to go where we want to go. I think she would have done a great job as president.

John King

00:08:57

She's gone from the race. You know Trump is going to be the nominee. To you, it mattered. You wanted to go on the record. You wanted to go on the record and say, sorry, Donald Trump. No.

Michael Pesce

00:09:04

Yes.

John King

00:09:05

Why?

Michael Pesce

00:09:05

Because I want other Republicans out there saying like, we don't have to choose this guy. We can choose somebody else with what's going on with all his trials and all the other things. What if, by some chance, he can't be president? Well, then where are we? You know, we don't have anybody else. And Nikki Haley, of all the Republicans that were running, she would be the one that I would choose over the other ones because most of those were just Trump acolytes anyhow. So it's more of the same, and I don't think that's what's best for us.

John King

00:09:37

Take me back. What's your first memory of saying, you know, I'm a Democrat, I'm a Republican, I'm an independent.

Michael Pesce

00:09:43

I became a Republican when I turned 18 because of Ronald Reagan. I'm a Reagan Republican. I like that version of conservatism. I like that version of America, his version of "America First," that we are the leaders of the free world. We are the leaders of the world military. This is what we stand for. And I'm like, yeah, that's what I want to be. Both my parents were staunch Democrats. And, you know, at the time, they're like, we're Democrats. We're not Republicans. And I was like, no, no, no.

John King

00:10:12

It's interesting how you put it. You believe in Reagan's version of "America First," when you hear Trump say, "America First," given your, sort of, legacy with Ronald Reagan, what goes through your mind?

Michael Pesce

00:10:24

The Trump version of America First is not America First. He doesn't want us to be first in the world in leading other countries to freedom and democracy. He is saying, we'll pull back from everywhere.

John King

00:10:37

How is your life under Biden? When you vote in November and you say you're going to vote for Biden, is any of that okay, thank you, Mr. President? Or is that he's not Donald Trump?

Michael Pesce

00:10:47

So, it's funny because the stock market just hit an all time record yesterday and I retire in a few years. So right now I'm like, yeah, this is great. But I'm smart enough to know that the president doesn't control the stock market. The president doesn't control the price of gas. Those things are beyond the president's control. Do I think that we are handling things at the border correctly? No. Do I think anyone else can do much better? I don't know. Immigration has always been part of the American experience. I work with a bunch of guys who came to the country from Central America and Mexico, and they worked hard and they got their cards and they did all their paperwork, and now they're citizens. And that's the way it's supposed to work. We can't just say, yep, we're going to kick you all out. You have to wait somewhere else until we get to you seven years from now or eight years from now, there's got to be a better way.

John King

00:11:38

What are the conversations? You have friends who are Trump supporters. How those conversations go?

Michael Pesce

00:11:41

Those conversations are hard. You can't voice your opinion because your opinion, if it doesn't match the other person's opinion, you are wrong and we're going to hate you for it. And that's not the way it was before. Ronald Reagan wasn't perfect. George Bush wasn't perfect, either was Clinton, either was Obama, but as a country, we still work towards the same goal. When 9/11 happened, the country was a country. We were united. You don't see that now. Now people are like, nope, that's not my country anymore. Biden is not the legitimate president. I don't see how you can say that. He won by 7 million votes.

John King

00:12:19

You don't see how people can say it. Why do you think they do, though?

Michael Pesce

00:12:23

'Because they, to borrow a phrase, they they drink the Kool-Aid. I know people whose whole news source is Fox News or One America News. That's their whole news source. And it's an echo chamber. They're only hearing what they want to hear. They're hearing their sides. And then if you mention CNN, they're like, they're all lying. It's all fake. That's, none of that's true. Well, do the research, read something else, listen to something else. The things that amaze me is that Christian evangelicals are just so behind Trump when everything that they stand for, he goes the opposite way and they're like, yeah, but he's still our guy. That part I just I don't get the disconnect. Like, what makes them so sure about one thing. And then this guy, they're just like, we'll just ignore all of that and we'll follow him anyhow.

John King

00:13:14

So you're not a fan of Biden. You just can't do Trump.

Michael Pesce

00:13:17

Yes, I know Joe's from the state and I like him personally. I think he would be a really interesting guy to have a conversation with. Do I think that everything he does, I'm a Republican, I'm conservative. I think we spend a lot of money on stuff we don't need to spend money on. But at the same time, I think that some of the things like abortion is going to be a big thing in this election. I'm an old guy. It's not a choice that I have to make. That's a personal thing. And I don't think we can just rule it out. You know, I have five daughters. I can't make that decision for them. That's not my decision to make. You know, you read the headlines where Haley's people aren't backing Trump. There's a reason we would rather have seen her as the candidate, not him.

John King

00:14:04

There were 159,000 of you in Pennsylvania in a primary, about two months after she got out of the race. What did I tell you when you saw the math the next day, it was important to you to do it. When you saw the math the next day, was that sort of a holy shit moment or what did you expect it to be that big?

Michael Pesce

00:14:20

I actually thought most people would just not vote, and to see that 159,000 people came out and said, I'm going to vote. Not only am I going to go out and vote, I'm going to vote for a person who has no chance of winning. That makes me feel good as a Republican in the state of Pennsylvania. That means that there's other people out there like me that I'm not sitting here by myself trying to fight the good fight.

John King

00:14:45

Even if a third of them make your choice in November, pretty hard for Trump to win.

Michael Pesce

00:14:50

Yes.

John King

00:14:51

Here.

Michael Pesce

00:14:51

That's the plan. You know, there's there's a lot of people in the counties around Pittsburgh and the counties around Philadelphia and even State College. You know, those are the three Democratic bastions in the state. If enough of us Republicans can do the right thing, keep Trump out of office, the next four years aren't going to be perfect. Look, I think they're going to be better than what the alternative would be.

John King

00:15:15

Do you ever think you'll get your Republican Party back?

Michael Pesce

00:15:19

I doubt it. I doubt it.

00:15:21

Does that bother you?

Michael Pesce

00:15:22

Yeah, very much so. George Washington, in his farewell address, said that he was against the two party system. And he said that if a person is cunning enough, is ambitious enough, and is deceitful enough, they can take over the party and coalesce the power around themselves. And I think that's where we're headed. And that scares me. That scares me a lot.

John King

00:15:45

We'll be right back.

John King

00:15:56

Welcome back. We're not leaving Pennsylvania just yet. We're going to head about an hour south, skirting Philadelphia to visit another suburban town. This one's in Delaware County. Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won Delaware County, or Delco, as the locals would say, by a hefty margin. But still, Donald Trump got more than a third of the vote in both 2016 and then again in 2020. We're here to meet someone who could be decisive come November. Another Haley voter. This one, though with a very different take.

Linda Rooney

00:16:29

I'm Linda Rooney and we're in Media, Pennsylvania.

John King

00:16:33

Media is a beautiful little town. Leafy, lots of ivy, old stone houses, pretty brick duplexes. You see the planter boxes, the bird feeders, the wind chimes. Linda was born here, grew up here. She and her husband then moved away. But then they came back about a decade ago after raising their kids in a nearby county. She now runs a digital marketing business.

Linda Rooney

00:16:54

I started the company about seven years ago and we handle local government communications. So boroughs and townships and we we get their news out, basically.

John King

00:17:04

Tell me about your politics.

Linda Rooney

00:17:06

Yeah. So I've always been a registered Republican. I would say, moderate. I like to call myself like, caring conservative.

John King

00:17:17

You decided to vote for Nikki Haley in a primary a couple months after she dropped out of the race.

Linda Rooney

00:17:21

Yeah. I'm sad that we only have these two choices, honestly. And I'm tired of celebrities sort of being in politics. I don't like Trump, but I have to say we were, for us, personally, we were better off when he was president. I don't like how he's so unreliable in some ways. You never know what he's going to do next. I just want a normal person, like, I just want someone normal. I don't want a celebrity and I don't have confidence in Biden, so I feel like I don't have a choice.

John King

00:18:00

So there were 159,000 of you in the primary voted for Nikki Haley. And what does it tell you about softness in Trump support or a sizable slice of the Republican Party saying, that's not what we want?

Linda Rooney

00:18:12

Yeah, I mean, I've been that way since 2020. I didn't vote for Trump in 2020. You know, I've always been saying, like, who are these people in the Republican Party that are shoving this down our throats right now? You know, this division is not going to get any better under Trump or Biden because they both fuel it.

John King

00:18:34

What did you do in 2020?

Linda Rooney

00:18:36

I voted for Biden.

John King

00:18:38

You regret that? Or you thought it was the right thing to do at the time?

Linda Rooney

00:18:41

I thought it was the right thing to do at the time.

John King

00:18:44

And so what was it about Trump that made you, for the first time ever, vote Democrat for president? That you just, I can't do this.

Linda Rooney

00:18:52

'It was his unpredictability. It was his non-presidential demeanor. You know, it was the things he said about women. It just rubbed me raw. And I just couldn't. I couldn't vote for him again.

John King

00:19:08

But you can't vote for Biden. You won't do it.

Linda Rooney

00:19:10

I can't. No. I think he campaigned as a moderate, and he's really gone a little too far left for me. I don't trust him with the economy. You know, 2008 was tough on my husband and I. And I feel like we're on a cliff like that right now. And I don't trust him with foreign leaders. My son's in the army. I'm angry about Afghanistan, about that withdrawal. So, honestly, I can't vote for him. I'm in the middle, you know, and there's so many Republicans and Democrats who are in the middle. Like where? Why isn't everybody speaking up about this? Why can't we all say. Can we please just have someone normal, someone in the middle?

John King

00:19:55

You described yourself as a caring conservative. Do you view Trump as either caring or conservative?

Linda Rooney

00:20:02

'He's kind of - he is kind of moderate, but he is a personality. And he just, you know, like dealing with foreign leaders. It's a little scary because the reason I think everybody behaved under him was because they didn't know what he was going to do next. And do we want someone like that? Like, I also don't think he's a person that can reach across the aisles, and we need somebody that will reach across the aisles. I know Nikki Haley did that in South Carolina, so I trust her.

John King

00:20:33

So what motivates you to do that when you know she's not in the race, you know she's not going to be the nominee, but you still took the time out of your busy life to go cast a ballot. You wanted to make a point.

Linda Rooney

00:20:43

I did want to make a point. Yeah. And I've had some of my Republican friends say you just threw away your vote. That was so dumb. And I'm voting by my conscience now. Like, I really don't want. I don't want Trump, but I don't want Biden either.

John King

00:20:59

So what do you do if your choices are Trump, Biden and a few third party candidates in November? What are you going to do?

Linda Rooney

00:21:04

So I have two choices. I can write someone in, or I can hold my nose and vote for Trump and know that's only going to be four more years.

John King

00:21:16

And in terms of some of the things he says, he blames a staffer but just the other day, you know, they posted this fake newspaper headline that essentially had you Nazi German language.

Linda Rooney

00:21:25

Yeah.

John King

00:21:26

Unified Reich.

Linda Rooney

00:21:27

Yeah.

John King

00:21:29

Does that worry you?

Linda Rooney

00:21:31

No. Because we went through four years with him, and I don't feel like he ever got that far right. I'm angry with him over January 6th for sure, but honestly, I felt like the economy was better. Our retirement savings was much better under Trump. So even though the news tries to tell us the economy's great, I feel like we're on this precipice and something is going to happen with the economy and Biden won't be able to handle it. I have my own company, my expenses are going up. My clients are, I think, at the breaking point of what I can charge for our services. I see it, like, I see it happening. I see that there's this subtle change in what people can afford right now.

John King

00:22:21

What will you be looking for if you have to make a "I hold my nose and vote for Trump" or I write somebody in. What will your process be to decide, okay, can I look myself in the mirror if I vote for Trump? I guess that's the question, right?

Linda Rooney

00:22:34

Yeah. So I want to know a little bit more about his platform this time around. I'll do my research and in the back of my mind, I think when Nikki Haley said, I'm withdrawing from my campaign, I was like, oh, maybe she'll get back in. I mean, I know it's not a possibility, but I thought maybe, maybe that could happen. I think I'll just be reading a lot and trying to see what everybody's platform is.

John King

00:23:00

You have an interesting side job. You do election monitoring.

Linda Rooney

00:23:03

Yeah.

John King

00:23:05

How's that going recently?

Linda Rooney

00:23:06

It's great. You know, our precinct is great. We're very small, and the people that live in the precinct are, for the most part, just really nice people. So we don't have any issues, really.

John King

00:23:21

So when you hear Trump talking about rigged elections and Democrats putting people in the precincts to add ballots or miscount ballots or cheat.

Linda Rooney

00:23:30

Yeah.

John King

00:23:30

You ever seen that?

Linda Rooney

00:23:31

I haven't seen it in my experience. No.

John King

00:23:34

He just said the other day that he won Pennsylvania in 2020.

Linda Rooney

00:23:38

No.

John King

00:23:40

Oh.

Linda Rooney

00:23:42

No. Yeah.

John King

00:23:44

Yeah, we're laughing about it, but it's not funny.

Linda Rooney

00:23:45

No. It's not funny.

John King

00:23:47

When he says things like that, does that trouble you in the sense that, you know, every time it's like chipping the paint away on trust in institutions.

Linda Rooney

00:23:57

Yeah, I mean, it does, but I mean, I could say the same for Biden. You know, what he did with title nine recently is ridiculous. If I had a woman in sports right now, a young girl in sports, I would be really angry that they're chipping away at that, that the title nine, the girls sports need that title nine you know, money so that they can also have sports.

John King

00:24:23

You mentioned you didn't like January 6th. What's your memory of that day?

Linda Rooney

00:24:28

You know, I remember watching it on TV and I couldn't believe that it was happening. And I was angry that Trump didn't say something, that Trump didn't stop it. And, you know, I read Liz Cheney's book recently, and to see what happened behind the scenes is appalling how our representatives and government acted. So, you know, I just can't I can't forgive them for that.

John King

00:24:59

And yet you still might vote for him.

Linda Rooney

00:25:01

I might. Yeah.

John King

00:25:03

That's a hard one.

Linda Rooney

00:25:04

'It's a hard one. But look at my choice. You know, I don't have a choice, so I still might - I still might vote for him hoping that he learned a lesson from January 6th.

John King

00:25:19

It's a weird place to be.

Linda Rooney

00:25:20

It's a weird place to be, for sure. And I don't understand how we got here. Honestly, I don't understand. Where are all the good people in the United States that could run for president. Where are they? And why aren't we electing them in the primaries? So we have, you said 159,000 people like myself who voted for Nikki Haley because she was on the ballot. Where, like, where are they? And why does the Republican Party, my party, keep following this path? I don't get it.

John King

00:26:00

We talked to Linda in May in the middle of Donald Trump's "hush money" trial in New York. We asked her if he gets convicted there or in any of the other trials where he's facing charges, would that factor into her decision? She didn't hesitate.

Linda Rooney

00:26:13

No, because, it's kind of, you know, ironic, but he could actually be our president in jail because there's nothing in the Constitution that prevents it. And I do feel like he is being targeted. But what I don't understand is why are they trying to, you know, bring all these cases against him when he could still be president in jail? Like what's the point of all this?

John King

00:26:41

Are you open all to the possibility that it's their job, and they think he did something wrong, and they're not supposed to worry about whether his name is Donald Trump or John Q. Public, or whether he's going to be president or whether he runs a garage.

Linda Rooney

00:26:53

Yeah, yeah. Some of the cases I mean, I think I read somewhere that he's got 91 claims against him or whatever. I think some of them are probably valid.

John King

00:27:04

So it turns out 34 of those charges stuck. Last month, a jury found Trump guilty on all counts in that New York City "hush money" trial. Meaning, yes, he's now a convicted felon. So we got back in touch with Linda, asked her how are you feeling now that the jury has returned its verdict. And this is what she wrote us: I have very mixed feelings about Trump being convicted. On one hand, I think the case didn't have merit. Should have been thrown out. On the other hand, I'm hopeful that maybe he'll bow out of the race on his own now and let someone more suitable run like Nikki Haley. Believe me, I would love to see him behind bars. But for one of the many other things he's done, like the White House records case or January 6th. But she goes on to say this, I don't think it's in Donald Trump to bow out as someone who prays daily, I'm going to pray that he bows out and stops the madness he's created. I will wait until closer to the election to decide who to vote for. I still can't see myself voting for Biden again. He's been a huge disappointment.

John King

00:28:12

Before we go any further. It is my absolute pleasure to introduce you to somebody.

Allie Malloy

00:28:16

Hello, I'm Allie Malloy, and I'm the senior producer of All Over the Map.

John King

00:28:21

A good producer is like a chief of staff. They run the program behind the scenes. A magician, diplomat, psychologist, and actually a whole lot more. Allie is from not that far away from where we were. We're in the Philadelphia suburbs for this piece. Allie is from Allentown, just up the road a little bit. So she was, of course, right there for these conversations with the voters and talking it through with her because of her Pennsylvania perspective, helped us drive home the takeaway here.

Allie Malloy

00:28:46

When we set out to talk to some of these Haley voters, what did you expect?

John King

00:28:50

I actually didn't know what to expect because if you voted for Nikki Haley, especially if you voted for Nikki Haley six, seven weeks after Donald Trump secured the nomination and Nikki Haley dropped out of the race, that's I'm getting my stick and I'm hitting the pinata. This is a closed primary where only registered Republicans can vote, and she gets 17% of the vote. She gets almost 25% of the votes in the suburbs we were in. That is enough math to flip the state, period. So why are you doing that? Okay, partly I love Nikki Haley. I support Nikki Haley. I'm going to do it. Well, this is my last opportunity to do it. I'm going to do it. Okay. But when you talk to them, then, it was like, no, actually, I wanted to send a message to Donald Trump. But this is where it gets really interesting and really fascinating because you have so many voters in these Haley voters who got to the same place, meaning I am going to cast a protest vote. I want my party back. They're unified around that in April. And yet, you asked them about November, Linda Rooney says she's a Reagan Republican. She might vote for Trump. Michael says he's a Reagan Republican. He can't vote for Trump. This is the part you can't learn, this is the part you cannot get if you just consume the data of polling.

Allie Malloy

00:30:02

Do you think the protest voters in Pennsylvania we spoke to are more like Michael, who say they can't vote for Trump? Or did you find that more of them were for Trump, or were they just not decided at all yet?

John King

00:30:13

One of the things I've learned about politics, but also about life, is that where you start has a huge impact on where you finish. And they're Republicans, they start as Republicans. And so as hard as it is to vote for Trump, as offensive as it is to many of them to vote for Trump, a lot of them at this point are either inclined or open to voting for Trump. Why? Well, in 2020, they were voting for the idea of Biden. Now they're Republicans who have lived the Biden presidency. And they have not liked the Biden presidency. Whether it's inflation, whether it's Afghanistan, whether it's they think he's beholden to the left in 2020, they were able to do it because it was a theory. It was an idea. It's really hard in 2024 if your bloodstream says, I'm a Republican, to vote to reelect a Democratic president. And so they are tormented. And you feel it when you're with them because they do not want Donald Trump. He's caustic. He's rough. He's toxic to them, but he's more Republican than Joe Biden is. Which I think makes the debates so important.

Allie Malloy

00:31:27

Agreed.

John King

00:31:27

Because it's not a theory anymore. They're standing right there. There's your President Biden. There's your last the last three, three and a half years of your life. And there's the four years before that. How do they answer the questions? How do they interact? You'd rather be on Mars than have to pick between those two in 2024. And there they are.

Allie Malloy

00:31:45

John, we chose Pennsylvania because of the 17% that voted for Haley, but we've seen similar numbers in other swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, all states we visited. What do you make of that?

John King

00:31:57

The president of the United States has problems in his family, too, the Democratic family. But what you see in Nikki Haley getting 17% in Pennsylvania, the teens in Georgia, in Arizona, above 25% in Michigan is a giant problem in the Republican family. This Haley vote in the late after she's out of the race primaries, is a giant flashing red light to Joe Biden that you can win this election. There are enough people out there who do not want Donald Trump who are Republicans, who are available. However, it's not automatic. It's anything but automatic because they are by DNA. Republicans. Right? The way to make the Haley math really matter is for the Democratic coalition to be in stronger shape for the president when we get to Election Day. The people who dislike both of these candidates will decide the election. And and the Haley voters are a giant slice of that pie. They don't like either one of these candidates. Some of them have voted for each of them. Trump 2016, Biden 2020. And they are like, oh my God, what do I do now?

John King

00:33:14

This podcast version of All Over the Map is a CNN audio production. This episode was produced by Dan Bloom, Grace Walker, and Allie Malloy. Our editor is Graelyn Brashear and our senior producer is Haley Thomas. Dan Dzula is our technical director, and Steve Lickteig is executive producer of CNN audio. Support from Nicky Robertson, Jacqueline Kalil, Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, Jon Dianora, Leni Steinhardt, James Andrest, Nichole Pesaru and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Wendy Brundige. We'll be back next Monday. I'm John King. Thanks for listening.

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