More than a thousand days have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. A thousand days of death, destruction and displacement. And yet some of the most dramatic days of this entire war have taken place in just the last week.

President Joe Biden for the first time, allowing Kyiv to use long range U.S. weapons to strike deeper inside Russia.

This morning, the Ukrainian military claims Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile as part of an attack on the city of de Dnipro. A Western official, though, says that a ballistic missile was fired, but it was not an ICBM.

Sophisticated missile used against Ukraine is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, able to strike several targets at the same time. But this is the first time it has been used in the war.

And with less than two months until President elect Donald Trump takes office, some Ukrainian officials believe rock solid support from the West may be about to crumble. So today. Let's go to Kyiv.

I've not seen such a fast spinning week for a long time.

My guest. CNN's chief international security correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh is there from CNN. This is One Thing. And David Rind.

Nick, how are you?

All right.

Are you in a bomb shelter right now?

We've just come up from the bomb shelter where we're staying.

We're just leaving the bomb shelter after about half an hour. Warning. The capital is very much on edge after this new claim of an ICBM being used as the warning time is reduced.

I have to say yesterday and today are the first times I've been to a bomb shelter since covering the beginning of the war.

Really?

Partly because of the change. Yesterday, the US embassy put out this warning of a specific threat against it that caused it to close. And this morning waking up to the news that Russia has, according to Ukrainian officials, fired an intercontinental ballistic missile. The notion of that much larger missile and payload, potentially the much smaller warning time. And so there's higher caution here, greater anxiety in Kyiv on the streets and down in the shelter, too. I you know, people point out to me that there were some individuals that you've never normally seen getting into the shelter as well. So I think that just is a reflection of the concern of people generally.

So it feels like different on the streets this time around compared to other times you've been there and you've been there a bunch.

Yeah. I mean, you wouldn't see it necessarily because the sirens go off and people still go about their daily business because life can't just suddenly drop and stop. But I think the the feeling is that this new type of weapon, whatever it turns out to be, may be the beginning of Russia bringing out new devices, it seems, and trying to escalate back after an extraordinary 72 hours.

Ukraine, not wasting any time striking deep into Russian territory using U.S. supplied ATACMS surface to surface missiles. Only days after getting the go ahead from the Biden administration, the U.S. confirms.

In which US supplied and made ATACMS longer range missiles were fired into Russia by Ukraine and apparently some British storm shadows as well.

In apparent response, Vladimir Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine, saying Moscow now has the right to use nuclear weapons in response to attacks using conventional weapons.

Everyone felt Moscow would respond potentially in some way. Indeed, they seem to suggest that would occur themselves. But we're rapidly seeing events picking up pace here in the past 72 hours.

Today our crazy neighbor. Has once again shown who he really is and how he despises dignity, freedom and human life in general and how afraid he is he's also so afraid that he is already using new missiles.

Yeah, we're talking now on on Thursday, and there have been a lot of developments, like you said. Can we start with the Biden administration? What are these weapons that they are now allowing Ukraine to use?

The ATACMS, longer range missile has a sort of upper limit is most long distance version. It's about 190 miles, 300km. They've supply these previously to Ukraine to use inside areas of Ukraine that Russia has occupied. But Ukraine has long said, look, we have to be able to hit targets inside Russia, where we're seeing Russian military depots, even potentially North Korean troops are massing to enable to defend ourselves. The Biden administration, as for months, somewhat emphasized how important and escalatory this move would be by saying they could do it because it would be potentially so risky and then change their mind on Sunday.

So why now?

Yeah, I mean, look. They said the White House, when they announced their stark change in position on Sunday, that this was because they wanted to permit Ukraine to potentially defend itself in the event of Russia trying to retake parts of Kursk, part of Russia that Ukraine it occupied in August. Remember, that's where the US believes North Korean troops are potentially being sent as well.

Wait yeah, tell me about these North Korean troops. Why are thousands of North Koreans fighting in this war? Have we seen anything like that before?

You've got to remember that throughout this war, both sides have been using foreigners in whatever way they can to bolster their forces. But there's something slightly different about Russia turning to its ally, North Korea, Kim Jong Un, and saying, listen, can we have 10,000 of your soldiers? Now, there seem to be suggestions that there's a significant financial reward potentially from North Korea for sending these troops. But it significantly internationalize this this war. I think it's not clear what the 10,000 are going to do. The U.S. is suggesting they're probably going to Kursk. Western officials have said, look, there's going to be some significant into operational issues with a whole bunch of Korean soldiers who don't speak Russian necessarily turning up and trying to fight a war.

And they don't even speak the language.

Exactly. So that's going to be a difficulty they're going to have to get over and try and face. But I think some observers have said, listen, this also changes the nature of the war a little bit, perhaps in the eyes of the U.S., particularly maybe in the eyes of China hawks in the incoming Trump administration, because you've now got a major sort of ally of China, North Korea, getting involved in this war. Does it globalize the conflict a little more? We'll have to see. I think, frankly, for the Ukrainians, this is just an extra level of Russian manpower they can pull upon to hit them on the front lines.

How much of this stepped up assistance from the U.S. is because of Donald Trump? Like, are they just getting out ahead of him taking office? When if you believe what he says, he's just going to turn off the spigot and try to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table?

Yeah, I mean, the bottom ministration has been pretty clear that they want to get as much as they possibly can to Ukraine while they still can. And that's in the closing two months starting on the 20th, is probably going to mark a significant change. It's entirely possible that prior to that, President elect Donald Trump will try and engineer some kind of diplomacy that eases his time when he's actually in office. But I think it's important to look at the notion of diplomacy here through clear eyes, because Ukraine is suffering. It's losing across the front lines, certainly, and it's running out of people to do the fighting for it. So while it talks about the desire for a just peace and is very clear and I think correct to suggest that a peace where Russia feels it can just regroup, refit means this war is going to carry on at a time of Russia's choosing again. They are in a tricky spot themselves. The Russians, while they're winning on the front lines, certainly. They're seeing a US presidency potentially that can be more sympathetic to their cause. And more importantly, I think the Western allies who've been giving Ukraine the moral, financial and military support to continue this fight now potentially beginning to feel like their appetite for an indefinite war might be ebbing. They don't say publicly, but I'm pretty sure that when everyone agreed to support Ukraine forever, they didn't actually mean for ever.

Oh, is that why when Olaf Schulz, the chancellor of Germany, actually called Vladimir Putin on the phone the other day, I spoke to him one on one, Everybody was like, whoa, this is not a good sign.

'Yeah. I mean, look, you know, Shultz did that unilaterally. Most analysts say this is domestic political reasons. I mean, he's in trouble in his future elections. He wants to court and East German electorate votes for these opposition parties. That's pretty pro-Russian. And so perhaps thinks that presenting himself as a peacemaker might help his domestic political challenges are sort of his critics would say that's not a reason to suddenly start diplomacy with a Kremlin head who's been very purposefully isolated from major Western leaders since December 2022. And so I think there was consternation in Paris, London, vocal consternation out of Poland. Donald Tusk saying quite clearly, look, you know, this is just a paraphrase here. But Putin is not someone you can assuage with phone calls. And so I think there's beginning to be a sign of the European unity, which is uncharacteristically been at the forefront of this war. Remember, you know, we don't openly see European capitals talking off the same page, but they have done about Ukraine. That domestic concerns means that maybe they might be beginning to find parts of them wondering about negotiation. Olaf Schulz said, listen, you know, I didn't speak to Vladimir Putin, who changed his mind. He's still the same guy, thinks he can win and doesn't want to talk. But if we are at the negotiating table, it means Europe. When Trump is that's a bad idea, I paraphrase again. So I think we've seen all these different themes change so fast in just a week outside of learning that Donald Trump is going to be the new US president and he thinks he can end the war in 24 hours.

Right.

We've seen this negotiation pact, kind of beginning this negotiation track, I should say, sorry, beginning through all of shelves of Germany. We've seen the Biden administration make this stark change that even they said themselves would be so escalatory they couldn't do it and allow ATACMS to be fired into Russia. The Brits seeming to follow suit, according to some reports. And now the Russians firing what the Ukrainians say is an ICBM. I have not seen such a fast spinning week for a long time. And I just add one thing we've been seeing today. Thursday, the UK Ministry of Defense Intelligence put out occasional assessments of the war, and they say that they haven't seen the front lines as fluid or unstable as this since the early days of the invasion. And that's a euphemism for their concerns that Ukraine is losing badly.

Wow. Do we know what Donald Trump's plan like would be or what any negotiated end to the war would actually look like at this point?

No, we don't know what Donald Trump's plan is. He says he wants to stop the killing.

If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.

How would you settle that war in one day?

I'll meet with Putin, I'll meet with Zelensky, they both have weaknesses and they both have strengths. And within 24 hours, that war will be settled.

He refers to Zelensky as a good salesman, which some people say is a compliment. Some people say perhaps means that Zelensky isn't deserving of the aid that he gets. And he said he wants to stop the killing.

A Ukrainian source now saying Trump was joined by billionaire Elon Musk on a recent phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin is vehemently denying Washington Post reporting, claiming a Trump Putin phone call has already happened.

And there have been reports suggesting that he may have been on a phone call with Vladimir Putin recently. His sympathy for the Russian leader has always been a complicating factor.

Do you believe that Putin is a war criminal? He's responsible for the deaths of thousands of Ukrainian men, women and children.

Well, I think this I think it's something that should not be discussed now. It should be discussed later, because right now we have to get a war... If you say he's a war criminal, it's going to be a lot tougher to make a deal to get this thing stopped, because if he's going to be a war criminal, what people are going to go and grab him and execute him, He's going to fight a lot harder than he's fighting. You know, under the other circumstances, that's something to be discussed at a later date.

His advocates say he doesn't like the guy he just knows he needs to have a relationship with him so he can make deals, which may be the case. But there's been a lot of other reporting suggesting that when it comes to Putin, Donald Trump tends to bend the knee a little.

Hundreds and thousands of people have been killed and we have to get that war settled.

So we have to wait and see what this looks like. But the danger, I think, for Ukraine, certainly that Ukrainian officials speak of is that they say the Russians understand strength, dominance. But if you say to them, okay, we want to stop, what do you want? They'll just beat you until you can't move anymore.

1000 days. I think it's enough to understand that Putin doesn't want any peace. Even this day, they killed our civilians. Even. Especially this day. They presented nuclear weapons at you. Why? They didn't present peace strategy. Did you hear it? Did you did you read about it? No, of course. Of course. Nuclear weapons strategy. Putin wants war.

And so I think the concern is that if Donald Trump thinks he can fix this quickly, that may involve asking the Ukrainians to cede more territory than they've already have ceded. It may involve terms which leave Ukraine at a distinct disadvantage. And it may also let Moscow feel that the one thing it's been waiting for has finally arrived. And that's a lack of Western appetite for this war, because without Western support, Ukraine is is really going to struggle, is going to lose.

And like you said, in theory, Russia could put things on pause and then restart it when they feel like the time is right again.

Yeah, if they even need to do that. I mean, they've shown an extraordinary appetite for casualties. Some Western officials suggesting it might, at the peak be losing 1200 dead or injured a day. I mean, that's just remarkable, if indeed true. There's not too much evidence to show how they get to that number. So, you know, if Russia sees weakness, if Russia sees winning on the front lines, there is no reason why it has to suddenly stop out of just some international decency. Remember, the Kremlin phrased this as being them against the full massed ranks of the NATO alliance in the United States for nearly three years now. So it is a an existential war in the minds of a Russian elite who've had to ask their population to endure. I mean, a startling number of casualties potentially, depending on how you parse it. Certainly over 100,000 by the most modest estimates as potentially dead and possibly 700,000 if you look at some of the wider estimates, too. So Moscow potentially Putin potentially feels he has to pull a larger victory out of the hat here than just holding on to what he's already got. But I think ultimately, unless he sees a Western resolve remain, he's going to spot an opening to keep going. And he's made it quite clear he needs to denounce if I demilitarized Ukraine. It sounds like Occupy all of it.

Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it.

Thank you, cheers.

One thing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producers are Felicia Patinkin and Faiz Jamil. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan de Zula is our technical director, and Steve Lickteig is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Haylee Thomas Alex Ministry, Robert Mathers, John Della Nora, Lainey Steinhart, Jamie Sandri, Nicole Passthrough and Lisa Nomura. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson, Gul Tuysuz, Wendy Brundage and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Wednesday. I'll talk to you then.