New US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to assume the role of backseat driver in his first in person meeting with European counterparts on Wednesday as the new Trump administration works to shift responsibility for Ukrainian and European security squarely to NATO and the EU.
Notably, the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels will be chaired by the United Kingdom. Under the Biden administration, the gatherings were convened by the US, which founded the group just after Russia’s invasion in 2022.
In a series of meetings in Europe this week Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Gen. Keith Kellogg, will be urging their European and NATO counterparts to take on a much greater role in supporting Ukraine, defense officials and people familiar with the matter told CNN.
To that end, on Thursday at a NATO defense ministers meeting, Hegseth is expected to urge members to increase their defense spending to 5% of their respective GDPs and ramp up their defense industrial base to start manufacturing weapons and equipment more quickly, defense officials said.
But the US’ allies are still waiting to see what Hegseth requests of them behind closed doors, one NATO official told CNN. Two other European officials said they’ve heard nothing “concrete” in terms of the administration’s plans for Ukraine, and that they’re wary of trusting any statement of policy that doesn’t come directly from Trump himself.
“Who is really calling the shots?” asked one official.
To that point, Kellogg told Newsmax that while he will discuss a vision for peace with allies at the Munich Security Conference this week, “the person who will present the peace plan is the president of the United States, not Keith Kellogg.”
But Kellogg has been meeting with other countries backing Ukraine, according to a person familiar with the meetings. Just last week he met with more than a half dozen ambassadors from Washington for pre-Munich discussions that will involve more senior ministers and officials from a variety of countries.
A European official who recently sat down with Kellogg said the administration still seems to be “collecting ideas, options, both sticks and carrots. And that while these ideas may be important, ultimately no one knows when and how President Trump will move.”
The official added, however, that Kellogg had an “overwhelming confidence and belief that Trump will negotiate a strong deal. On the other hand, what constitutes a strong deal remains yet to be defined.”
In a sign that the Trump administration is pursuing multiple channels to try to get a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, the White House announced on Tuesday that the US had secured the release of US citizen Marc Fogel from Russian detention.
The release, part of a broader exchange with Russia, was negotiated by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and “serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine,” said national security adviser Mike Waltz.
Future of US aid to Ukraine remains uncertain
NATO and European officials, meanwhile, say they have been able to glean little from Hegseth’s first few weeks as secretary, during which he has focused on domestic culture war issues like eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion programs in the US military and surging military assets to the US southern border, where Marines and soldiers have helped with logistical tasks like building barriers and shuttling migrants to and from detention facilities.
So far, there are no signs that the Pentagon under Hegseth will continue dipping into US military stockpiles to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, a process known as Presidential Drawdown Authority. The Department of Defense has not yet done so with the nearly $4 billion in congressionally authorized funds that were left over from the previous administration.
Trump told Fox on Sunday that he wants “the equivalent of like $500B worth of rare earth” minerals from Ukraine’s critical mineral deposits in exchange for continued US aid to Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to travel to Kyiv this week for discussions about the minerals, two people familiar with his plans told CNN. Trump confirmed on Tuesday that Bessent will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week in Ukraine.
A source familiar with the administration’s thinking on US investment in Ukraine’s natural resources said the plan could involve the US ultimately securing priority access to Ukrainian minerals, backed by US financing and with the participation of American companies. That would give the US a stake in Ukrainian security, too, which appeals to Kyiv, this person said.
The Trump administration has not cut off aid to Ukraine entirely — military assistance from packages announced under the previous administration is still flowing, and Kellogg has advocated for continuing to provide lethal assistance if Kyiv agrees to enter peace talks with Moscow.
But it’s still unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would agree to do so without obtaining guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO — a demand that has long been a nonstarter for Zelensky.
There is a hardening consensus within the administration, meanwhile, that Putin, rather than Zelensky, will be the main hurdle to getting both sides to the negotiating table, said one source familiar with the White House’s thinking on this issue. European officials similarly said they’ve seen no signs that Putin is willing to engage in meaningful negotiations.
Part of Kellogg’s task at the Munich Security Conference this week will be to push the Europeans to do more to get Putin to the table, said another source familiar with his upcoming travel.
Zelensky has indicated he would be willing to “soften his position” on territorial concessions, Kellogg told Fox last week. But Putin has not changed any of his demands in the nearly three years of war or indicated that Russia would concede any seized territory.
Trump has threatened Russia with more sanctions if it does not begin peace talks. But that ultimatum has not been well-received by Moscow.
“The Russian army will [end the war] within the timeframe set by its supreme commander-in-chief, our president Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” one Russian lawmaker said on Russian state TV last month.
‘Increased European leadership’ on Ukraine
In a statement previewing Hegseth’s trip, the Defense Department twice mentioned that Hegseth would be emphasizing to NATO and EU allies the need for “increased European leadership,” including when it comes to security assistance to Ukraine and an increase in defense spending overall.
NATO and Europe began planning for a US retreat from the conflict last year and started taking on more responsibility for aid to Ukraine, with NATO setting up its own mechanism to funnel assistance to Kyiv. It’s the first time the UK has chaired a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a coalition of over 50 countries focused on streamlining the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine.
The forum was first convened by former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin just weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and had been led by the US in every meeting since its inception. It’s still not clear who will chair the forum’s subsequent meetings.
Hegseth spoke briefly about Ukraine during his confirmation hearing, describing Ukraine as “the good guy” and Russia as “the aggressor,” while reiterating Trump’s refrain that the war “needs to come to an end.” But the Trump administration has not yet articulated a clear plan for doing so.
During that same hearing, Hegseth referred to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea as a “minor incursion,” which has raised questions among some of the US’ European and NATO allies about whether he takes Putin’s long-held fixation with controlling Ukrainian territory seriously.
That obsession is largely why Zelensky has insisted on security guarantees from the US and Europe before Ukraine agrees to begin peace talks with Putin. Should Russia try to invade Ukraine again in the future, Zelensky wants promises that the west will help come to Kyiv’s defense.
But Waltz told NBC on Sunday that the US will not be providing Ukraine with any security guarantees whatsoever. And he suggested that Ukraine will have to start paying the US if it wants to keep receiving American military assistance, something Trump alluded to last week when he said he “wants” Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
“We need to recoup those costs and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their natural resources and their oil and gas and also buying ours,” the national security adviser said. “Those conversations are going to happen this week. And I think an underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward. President Trump is going to end it. And then in terms of security guarantees, that is squarely going to be with the Europeans.’’
One key topic of discussion when it comes to security guarantees will be the possible deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine after a deal is reached — something the UK and France have been discussing, people familiar with the matter told CNN.
The US would not send troops for peacekeeping, sources explained, but allies have signaled they would need American “enablers” to make a peacekeeping force viable. That would likely include help with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to help protect the force as well as additional air defense systems.
