Winter is finally living up to its name in the Northeast — at least partially. It’s been bitterly cold this winter, but many cities are still lagging behind on their typical snow.
February could change that. The ingredients needed to create blockbuster winter storms historically tend to align this month. Most of them are already in place now, and just need a storm to take the elusive right track to unlock winter’s full potential.
Trace a path along Interstate 95 from Virginia to Maine and nearly every city along and east of the busy roadway typically gets more snow in February than any other month.
More impactful Northeast snowstorms, many of which are powerful nor’easters, occur in February than any other month, according to a scale used to rank snowstorms from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
That’s because peak snowiness in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast is tied to the Atlantic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures along the immediate Atlantic Coast start the winter relatively warm — large bodies of water are slow to shed heat from the summer and fall. Any storms that interact with this warmth are more likely to deliver rain than snow.
Sea surface temperatures near the coast usually cool off by February and allow coastal storms like nor’easters to tap into colder air and produce more snow instead of rain.
Sea surface temperatures near the coast are currently at or below normal from northern New England all the way to parts of the Carolinas after multiple bouts of brutally cold air swept over the eastern half of the US, according to NOAA data.
Ocean conditions are ripe near the Atlantic coast, but a few other factors need to align for a major snowstorm in the Northeast.
Cold air is a huge factor, and this season has put recent winters to shame: It’s on track to be one of the 10-coldest winters for dozens of Eastern Seaboard locales, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
More cold is on the way that could help set the stage for a big snowstorm.
Warmer than normal air will stick around through the weekend for much of the mid-Atlantic, but colder air will arrive next week for the Northeast and start to cool off the rest of the Eastern Seaboard, too. Some weather forecast models are hinting at the potential return of widespread, bone-chilling cold later in the month.
Cold air and cool sea surface temperatures could be in place all season, but it’s not going to snow until a storm arrives that can tap into them. Most storms packing a big winter punch have tracked farther south than normal, missing the region.
La Niña could also play a role in Northeast snow. La Niña conditions arrived mid-winter. La Niña and its counterpart El Niño typically have a predictable and outsized effect on winter weather in the US, but this La Niña is quite weak, which muddles its influence.
A typical La Niña winter pattern would dictate warmer than normal conditions for much of the mid-Atlantic and southernmost parts of the Northeast — bad news for snow. Weak La Niñas also tend to give New England more snow than normal. Neither outcome has come to pass so far: Washington, DC, was buried in snow in January while New England has longed for it.
Missing snow
The last couple of winters in the Northeast were decidedly un-winterlike. Last winter was the warmest on record in both the Northeast and the entire Lower 48. The winter before is tied for the third-warmest in the Northeast.
Winter is the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the US as the planet warms because of fossil fuel pollution. Unseasonable warmth and lackluster snow totals go hand-in-hand, and snowfall is declining around the globe.
New York City has a snowfall deficit of more than 3 feet over the past two winters. Snow is still lagging this season despite the cold; the city should typically record at least a foot of snow from December through the end of January but just under 6 inches has fallen.
Other cities in the I-95 corridor – with the exception of Washington, DC, and Baltimore – are also running behind this season. Both Philadelphia and Boston recorded only half of the snow that typically falls from December through January.
Even New Orleans has had more snow than New York City – and almost as much snow as New York City and Philadelphia combined – after a historic storm dumped 8 inches on the city in January.
There are a couple of chances for snow this week that don’t appear to be a major storms, but could be the start of a trend this month if the ingredients all finally align.
