On a recent 70-degree Tuesday evening, Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert went canvassing in a north Phoenix neighborhood where yards were adorned with Halloween decorations and Trump campaign signs.
When Schwiebert, who is running for a Republican-held state Senate seat, knocks on doors, she introduces herself as a former teacher, asks whether residents have already voted and emphasizes her support for funding public schools.
Only sometimes does the second-term state representative lean into what her election could mean for Arizona: Democrats need a net gain of two state House seats and two state Senate seats to gain a trifecta for the first time in more than 60 years.
“When I have the opportunity, and when I’m getting a connection with that voter, I use it at appropriate times,” Schwiebert said. “It’s not the only issue.”
While most of the nation’s attention is focused on the top of the ticket, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in an equally fierce battle for control of key state legislatures, including several in presidential swing states.
In addition to the Arizona Legislature, Democrats are hoping to flip the New Hampshire Legislature, make inroads in the Wisconsin House and chip away at Republican supermajorities, including those in the North Carolina and Kansas legislatures and the Wisconsin Senate.
Republicans, meanwhile, are focused on protecting those majorities, as well as targeting narrow Democratic majorities in the state Houses in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.
Chaz Nuttycombe, the director of cnalysis.com, which forecasts state legislative races, said Democrats are likely to gain seats nationally this year due to new, more competitive district lines. But on a map full of tight races, particularly in swing states, there’s a chance Republicans could exceed expectations.
“There’s plenty of room for upset, for Republicans to defy those odds and somehow — despite redistricting and 2024 being a bluer environment, most likely, than 2022 … gain seats in state legislatures this year,” he said.
A yearslong effort
For Democrats, this cycle is part of a yearslong campaign to gain back power at the state level after the 2010 election cycle, when Republicans flipped control of 22 state chambers and gained the upper hand in redistricting.
“Republicans have understood the value of this ballot level, and then resourced it accordingly now for decades,” said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm for state legislative races.
Williams noted that state legislatures are often the training ground for future members of Congress, as well as where policy is shaped and enacted. At the same time, Democrats have made progress on convincing their party to invest in these races.
“I think we’ve made just so much progress in getting a view that Democrats need to win up and down the ticket,” she said. “We always have work to do. And I think we’re always going to have work to do to tell the story of this ballot level and why it’s so important.”
Part of that work includes making sure Democratic voters make their way through the whole ballot, Williams said. She said that ballot roll-off — when a person votes for a candidate or candidates toward the top of the ticket but not farther down the ballot — affects Democratic legislative candidates more in presidential years.
The DLCC’s GOP counterpart, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which also focuses on other down-ballot offices such as lieutenant governor and secretary of state, has warned supporters that Democratic groups have a funding advantage heading into the final stretch.
The RSLC said in an October 23 memo that it had invested $44 million this cycle. While Republican state legislative candidates have received funding from other groups, Democratic outfits focused on these races have budgeted more. The DLCC pledged to spend $60 million, while outlays from two liberal super PACs seeking to boost Democratic legislative candidates — Forward Majority and the States Project — are expected to reach $45 million and $70 million, respectively.
“With a mere 33 seats standing in the way of Democrats flipping the five legislative chambers needed to gain a majority of chambers nationwide, down-ballot races have been tightening similar to the top of the ticket in every battleground state,” RSLC president Dee Duncan said in a memo.
Turning Arizona blue
Arizona’s legislature has 30 districts, each of which sends one senator and two at-large House members to the state Capitol. Republicans hold one-seat majorities in both chambers, but have been blocked from trifecta control by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
For Democrats, the path to a legislative majority next year likely runs through the Phoenix area.
In the state’s 2nd Legislative District, Schwiebert is running against state Sen. Shawnna Bolick, who was appointed to the seat in 2023. Bolick was one of two Republican senators who voted with Democrats to overturn the state’s 1864 near-total abortion ban, which allowed for no exceptions for victims of rape or incest. She is also the wife of Arizona Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, one of the judges who voted to revive the abortion ban and who faces a retention election this year.
Shawnna Bolick’s campaign did not respond to interview requests.
Democrats have leaned heavily into abortion messaging in the state, where voters are also deciding on a ballot initiative, Proposition 139, that would enshrine abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution.
State Rep. Justin Wilmeth, the target of some of those ads, is one of three House Republicans who also voted to overturn the 1864 ban. Wilmeth, who describes himself as “a typical pro-life, Christian conservative guy,” told CNN he thinks the current 15-week abortion ban with exceptions is “reasonable.” But he opposes Proposition 139, which he said goes “too far” and would prevent the Legislature from scaling it back.
Wilmeth, one of two Republicans running for the state House in the 2nd District, claimed a Democratic trifecta in the state would stifle the economy through overregulation and bring “California-style policies” to Arizona.
“They’re going to push for everything they can under the mindset of ‘maybe this isn’t going to be forever,’” Wilmeth said. “Or maybe it’s the drunk-with-power concept, that they’ll just have all control and nothing to stop them.”
Schwiebert said she’s focused on protecting access to abortion and in vitro fertilization, boosting teacher pay and funding education, border security and housing affordability.
“I think this is finally the year that we’re going to do it,” Schwiebert told CNN. “We have worked our tails off, up and down and across Arizona. And with abortion on the ballot, and with young people turning out, that we have a really great shot at finally taking this majority.”
Republicans eye gains of their own
Arizona Republicans are hoping to avoid the fate of their counterparts in Minnesota and Michigan, where Democrats won trifectas in 2022.
In Michigan, where Democrats gained full control for the first time in more than 40 years, the new legislative majority has overturned the state’s right-to-work law, expanded LGBTQ rights and passed sweeping legislation on abortion access and gun control.
“At these state and local level offices, this is where you can build up, from the ground up, to make the change that may eventually push the federal government to finally act,” state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, the chamber’s majority whip, said during a press call last week hosted by Emerge, a group that trains Democratic women.
Michigan Republicans need a net gain of two seats to regain a majority in the state House. In October, Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder launched a weeklong bus tour to boost his party’s legislative candidates and promote the GOP’s “Mission for Michigan” agenda, which Republicans hope will help win over swing voters.
“If you win every Republican in the state of Michigan and nobody else, you lose,” Snyder told CNN. “You need to have an appeal to the middle … and the key to do that is to have a positive vision and mission that you’re talking about.”
Snyder’s bus tour passed through Milan, southwest of Detroit, where Dale Biniecki, a retired owner-operator truck driver is seeking a rematch against Democratic Rep. Reggie Miller after losing by about 5 points in 2022. While campaigning at The Owl, a local cafe, Snyder acknowledged that the path back to power would take time.
“It starts by taking the majority back in the House so we can bring balance there,” Snyder said.
