Staring down the prospect of losing the Senate and amid a tight race for the House, Democrats are burning through cash in the final sprint to Election Day, new federal filings show.
The pre-general election reports, which cover the first sixteen days of October, are the last opportunity before November 5 to see just how much congressional campaigns have raised and spent. Democrats are defending a razor-thin majority in the Senate, while Republicans are trying to maintain their own narrow edge in the House.
In almost all the key races, Democratic candidates brought in more than their Republican opponents between October 1-16. At this point in the race, neither side has a significant overall cash-on-hand advantage, with campaigns spending all the resources they can to win.
With no clear leader in the presidential election according to the most recent CNN Poll of Polls, the battle for Congress will be crucial to determining whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will have a supportive first branch of government to help implement the new president’s policies.
Senate Democrats’ final stand
Democrats face daunting odds to retain their narrow Senate majority. With Republicans almost certain to flip West Virginia’s Senate seat, they would need Harris to win the White House while not losing any of the other seats held by Democratic senators or senators who caucus with the party.
But Senate Democrats have had a massive money advantage all cycle. According to a CNN analysis of campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Democratic candidates in Senate races rated as competitive by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales have thoroughly outspent their Republican opponents.
With less than two weeks until Election Day and early voting well underway, Democratic Senate candidates in 10 key races – not counting Nebraska, where Democrats don’t have a nominee – spent about $76 million altogether in the first 16 days of October while raking in nearly $49 million, according to the latest filings. Republicans combined to raise about $28 million, while spending more than $39 million over 11 races. Those totals did not include Ohio GOP nominee Bernie Moreno, whose filings were not available on the FEC site as of publication time.
The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in states that Trump twice carried comfortably – Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
Brown raised $7.8 million between October 1 and 16, spent $7.9 million and entered the final two weeks of the campaign with $4.4 million in the bank. More than $500 million has been spent on the Ohio race through Thursday, the most of any Senate contest in 2024. Inside Elections currently rates the Ohio race as the only Toss-up on the Senate map.
In Montana, Tester, the last remaining Democrat in statewide elected office, raised more than $9 million in the first half of October, spent more than $12 million and had just over $4 million on hand for the final dash to Election Day. His Republican opponent, retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, raised nearly $2.4 million, spent $2.5 million and had a similar amount left to spend. Inside Elections rates the Senate race in Montana as Tilts Republican.
The battle for the House
In the 30 House races currently rated as Toss-ups or tiling toward one party by Inside Elections, Democratic candidates have combined to outspend their GOP opponents, $190 million to $117 million over the course of the cycle through October 16.
Three Democratic candidates – Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola, Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, and Virginia challenger Eugene Vindman – have spent over $10 million on their campaigns. Peltola and Gluesenkamp Perez represent districts that would have backed Trump in 2020, and Vindman is running for a competitive seat outside Washington, DC.
The battle for the House majority could come down to nine fiercely contested seats in deep-blue California and New York, which were key to Republicans winning control of the chamber two years ago. In these seats alone, Democrats have outspent Republicans, $58 million to $43 million this cycle. In the pre-general election period, the Democratic candidates in these seats outspent their GOP opponents, on average, $1.7 million to $1.3 million, though the average Republicans began October 17 with a slight cash-on-hand advantage.
Big donors, big dollars
Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent in the battle for Congress, and ultrawealthy donors are still pouring money into super PACs.
Elon Musk donated $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Musk has already spent nearly $120 million on the presidential election through America PAC, the super PAC he helped form to support Trump. Senate Leadership Fund also received $5 million from hedge fund manager Paul Singer, and $2 million from investment banker Warren Stephens.
The fund’s Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, received a $25 million donation from Majority Forward, the group’s dark money nonprofit arm, which is not required to disclose its donors.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, received another $2 million check from billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin in October. Griffin, who hasn’t donated to Trump this cycle, has donated $16 million to the fund so far this cycle. The group also received $4.5 million from insurance executive Patrick Ryan and his wife, Shirley, as well as $2 million from Singer.
On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC received a $2 million donation from billionaire businessman and former 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer, $1.8 million from philanthropist Marilyn Simons and $1.1 million from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Democratic-aligned nonprofit that is not required to disclose its donors.
In Michigan, the Great Lakes Conservative Fund, which has spent over $20.5 million in the Senate race in support of Republican Mike Rogers, received $1.2 million in donations from the DeVos family – including $125,000 from Trump’s former Education secretary, Betsy DeVos.
And in Pennsylvania, Keystone Renewal PAC, which has spent $48 million supporting Republican nominee Dave McCormick, received another $1 million from Pennsylvania-based billionaire Jeff Yass.
