The US military’s top commander in Europe compiled a list of weapons systems the US possesses that could help Ukraine in its fight against Russia that the Biden administration has not yet provided, including air-to-surface missiles and a secure communications network used by NATO.
In an annex attached to a classified report about the Biden administration’s Ukraine strategy that was delivered to Congress early last month, Gen. Chris Cavoli outlined a list of US capabilities that could help the Ukrainian military fight more effectively, according to people familiar with the report.
The list included the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, a type of air-launched cruise missile, and a communications system known as the Link 16 — a data sharing network used by the US and NATO that is supposed to enable more seamless communication between battle systems and is particularly useful for air and missile defense command and control. Ukraine has asked for both systems repeatedly, another source familiar with their requests said.
Cavoli’s list does not address why the US hasn’t provided systems that he assesses would be of value. But US officials have previously expressed concerns about sensitive US technology falling into Russian hands, which one source said is likely the holdup with the Link 16 system. The air-to-surface missiles, which are fired from fighter jets, might not be useful to the Ukrainians unless they achieve some level of air superiority, the source added.
Nearly three years into the war, the Ukrainians are still pleading with the US to provide more advanced weaponry and lift restrictions on how long-range missile systems provided by the US can be used. And with the US presidential election less than one month away, the future of the US’ support for Ukraine is uncertain, even as the US says it is working to make sure Ukraine has what it needs to last them through at least the end of 2025.
The Ukrainian government continues to lobby hard. When President Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Joe Biden at the White House late last month, he came armed with a detailed list—not of weapons, but of targets inside Russia that he wants to hit with US-provided long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, according to sources familiar with the meeting.
The list is a key part of Zelensky’s “victory plan” for winning the war. Biden, who has to date prohibited the Ukrainians from deploying the missile systems for deep strikes into Russia, was not entirely dismissive of the request, the sources said. But he was ultimately non-committal.
The leaders agreed to keep discussing the issue. But Biden won’t be meeting with Zelensky again in the near future after he canceled a trip to Germany for a gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group this week, and it remains unlikely that the US will change its policy on long-range missiles, officials told CNN.
Broadly, US officials say they are giving Ukraine everything that the US military assesses Kyiv needs at this moment to support its fight. Officials also argue that that the US’ limited supply of long-range ATACMS systems are better used against targets in Crimea. The Ukrainians have already conducted several successful strikes deep inside Russia using their own long-range drones that have damaged Russia’s defense industrial base, US officials note — drones that in fact have a far longer range than the ATACMs.
US officials have also said that Russia has moved some of its most valuable targets outside of the ATACMS’ 180-mile range, anyway. The Ukrainians have argued, though, that there are plenty of Russian assets within range, including military bases and production and logistics facilities, that would make for strategic targets.
As a way to “Trump-proof” US security aid, should former President Donald Trump win in November, the US and its allies have been working on ways to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs through the end of 2025. NATO has established its own mechanism for facilitating aid and military training, which was launched in July. The Pentagon is also getting closer to offering contracts to private American companies to travel to the country and help with the equipment sustainment and logistics there, officials said, a key part of making sure Ukraine’s weapons and equipment don’t break down at key moments.
Broadly, though, the US is hoping that 2025 marks a turning point for Russia’s ability to sustain its own war effort.
Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of fighters in close to three years of fighting. To make any substantial gains on the battlefield, officials have long believed President Vladimir Putin will need to order another politically risky troop mobilization. And both US officials and independent analysts say that although the Kremlin has successfully shielded its economy from some of the bite of western sanctions in the near-term, there are some signs that its economy may begin to show strain by the end of next year.
Putin “always thinks Americans have attention deficit disorder,” CIA Director Bill Burns said during a national security conference in Sea Island, Georgia, on Monday. “This is one of those cases where we have to demonstrate the strength of our support for Ukraine, because there’s a lot riding on this.”
Still, critics say that the administration’s plan for victory in Ukraine remains fuzzy. According to one source who read the report, the classified strategy delivered to Congress defined victory only in vague terms of Ukrainian sovereignty and self-determination. In another classified annex, it suggested categorized that might be used to judge success, such as reclaimed territory, but provided no benchmarks.
For now, the picture on the battlefield remains fluid. Russia has made grinding gains in the country’s east, which officials see as Putin’s priority. Ukraine earlier in the year seized a huge swath of territory inside Russia that it continues to hold, for now, a move that some officials believe may stretch Kyiv too thin across the front lines in the east.
