Speaker Mike Johnson has a decision to make.
With the election looming and another government funding deadline just around the corner, the speaker must find a way in the next several days to both govern for the country, avoid a shutdown that could cost his members in swing districts and keep the right flank of his party pacified enough to not imperil his own political future.
It’s a tightrope he’s walked time and time again in government funding showdowns in the last year, on Ukraine aide and when it came to reauthorizing a key national security program, but this time the course Johnson charts could determine whether he can stay atop his leadership post after the election.
“I don’t think he thinks about his speakership first. I think he thinks about the (future) of the country first. But let’s be honest. With him, it’s a very difficult needle to thread,” Rep. Lisa McClain, a Republican from Michigan, told CNN.
While many of his allies are bullish on House Republicans’ chances to keep the House in November, they acknowledge there are still a lot of variables that need to play out. If Republicans keep the House, Johnson will need to secure 218 votes to become the speaker in January, a major lift if Johnson once again has a slim or even shrunken majority.
Johnson for his part has maintained widespread popularity. Even many of the Republicans who once privately questioned whether Johnson was too green for the job have argued he’s grown quickly into it, taking on his right flank and surviving leadership challenges his predecessor could not weather.
“It’s just hard from my standpoint no matter how this fight goes if we come back into the majority, it would be tough to make the argument that he shouldn’t be speaker,” said Rep. Drew Ferguson, a Republican from Georgia.
There is also the potential that Republicans lose the House. Then, Johnson would need to convince a majority he’s still up for the job of leading the conference as minority leader, an easier mathematical problem that requires just a simple majority vote but one that could be complicated by a challenger if Republicans lose in a landslide.
“When you lose the Superbowl by two touchstones, you fire the coach,” one GOP aide lamented on Johnson’s future if Republicans lose big.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a key critic to Johnson, warned she didn’t see Johnson sticking around if Republicans lose the House.
“That’s to be determined, but, you know, based on things that I’ve heard, and I’m not naming names, naming members, I don’t see that happening,” she said.
On Wednesday, Johnson announced he was pulling the GOP spending bill that would have funded the government for six months and included the SAVE Act, legislation that requires proof of citizenship to register to vote. The bill was on the cusp of failure after at least eight House Republicans said publicly they wouldn’t support it. But Johnson said that he would continue trying to build support for the bill.
“We’re in the consensus building business here in Congress. With small majorities that’s what you do,” Johnson told reporters.
But while Johnson maintained he planned to keep whipping the votes on the plan, there is no indication that the dynamics will change, forcing the Louisiana Republican to at some point consider his other options.
A date that could matter (a lot) for Johnson
If Johnson needs to build bipartisan consensus to get a funding bill across the finish line as he has had to do time and time again, Democratic leaders warn he’ll need to drop the SAVE Act from being tied directly to the funding bill. But whether Johnson will relent on the six-month spending bill remains to be seen in part because it could unlock a much easier path for his future.
Punting another spending showdown until March could insulate Johnson from having to pass a massive end-of-year spending bill in December and then turn around and convince hardliners that he should keep the speaker’s gavel.
Keeping the House might give him a victory to campaign on, but there are several Republicans including Greene who challenged Johnson’s speakership in the spring and who have already publicly registered their displeasure with Johnson.
“I think it’s going to be really difficult for him,” Greene told CNN about Johnson’s chances of winning the gavel again if he cuts a spending deal with Democrats. “Eleven of my colleagues voted with me for a motion to vacate. However, you’re seeing a good number of my colleagues that weren’t part of that eleven now turning on him with a CR and SAVE Act because they know the writing on the wall.”
Getting Democrats to sign onto a March deadline would be a hard sell for Johnson. Many Democrats want to clear the deck for a potential Harris administration, and the Biden administration has warned that a six-month continuing resolution could have devastating effects on military preparedness and even the Department of Veterans Affairs, which is facing a $12 billion shortfall going into the new fiscal year. A December funding bill would also provide Biden his last opportunity to include other legacy items that often ride along on a massive end-of-year spending bill.
The next several days will be critical for Johnson to navigate carefully.
“I think he’s doing the best job that he can, small margins that we have. It’s such a tight schedule. I mean, to me, it’s the job that he has I would not want,” Rep. Beth Van Duyne, a Republican from Texas, told CNN.
The next several weeks could play out in several ways. Johnson could opt to quickly pivot after Wednesday to a plan to move a short-term spending bill until March that drops the SAVE Act in an effort to win over Democratic votes.
On the other hand, Senate Democrats could act swiftly to force Johnson’s hand by offering a short-term spending bill that goes just to December and dare Johnson to reject it and risk a shutdown just months before an election.
“He’s in the majority so he’s gotta figure out what the right combination is,” Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, told CNN of Johnson’s calculation. “It’s kind of like a Rubik’s cube.”
