US intelligence officials are assessing the possibility that the suspected Chinese spy balloon was not deliberately maneuvered into the continental US by the Chinese government and are examining whether it was diverted off course by strong winds, multiple people briefed on the intelligence tell CNN.
After the balloon lifted off from Hainan, China last month, US officials monitored it as it made its way across the Pacific, sources said. After tracking the balloon for a little while, officials believed it would head towards Guam, where it would probably try to surveil military sites on the island.
But the balloon instead went north unexpectedly and crossed into Alaska, Canada, and then downward, reentering the US through northern Idaho and moving towards Montana – a path that US officials are not sure was purposeful, and may have been determined more by strong winds than deliberate, external maneuvering by Beijing.
China did maintain some ability to maneuver the balloon, however. Once the balloon was over Montana, officials believe China took advantage of its position to loiter over sensitive sites and try to collect intelligence.
The balloon then moved eastward over the US and was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on February 4 by US fighter jets. As CNN has reported, the US intelligence community last year developed a method of tracking what it says is a fleet of Chinese balloons operating across the globe.
Weather modeling done by CNN suggests it is plausible that the wind currents at the time diverted the balloon northward toward Alaska.
The Washington Post first reported that officials are examining the possibility that China didn’t intend for the balloon to travel over the continental US.
Any intelligence suggesting that the balloon’s path into the US may have been unintentional could ease tensions between Washington and Beijing and may offer both countries a way out of what has become an increasingly tense diplomatic crisis.
A day after the US publicly revealed the balloon had been spotted, Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a high-profile trip to Beijing and accused China of deliberately flying the balloon over the US in call with his counterpart Wang Yi, calling it “both unacceptable and irresponsible.”
“I made clear that the presence of this surveillance balloon in US airspace is a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law, that it’s an irresponsible act and that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) decision to take this action on the eve of my planned visit is detrimental to the substantive discussions that we were prepared to have,” Blinken told reporters on February 2.
Blinken and Wang will both attend the Munich Security Conference this weekend. US officials said a meeting between the two is not currently planned but have not fully ruled out the possibility.
It is not clear what intelligence the US has gleaned that has made officials consider it a credible possibility that the balloon’s overall trajectory may have been at least partly accidental. The US intelligence community is also closely scrutinizing which elements of the Chinese government ordered and approved the balloon’s mission.
The US and Chinese governments have been clashing publicly over the vessel, which China has said was a weather balloon that accidentally entered US airspace.
“Affected by the westerly wind and with limited self-control ability, the airship seriously deviated from the scheduled route,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on February 3. “China regrets that the airship strayed into the United States due to force majeure. China will continue to maintain communication with the US to properly handle the unexpected situation.”
The US, however, has insisted that the balloon was being used for surveillance, and that it was not completely at the mercy of the winds. China has flown similar surveillance balloons into mainland US airspace in the past, including near Florida and Texas. But US officials have acknowledged that the balloon’s maneuverability was limited.
Asked earlier this month whether the Chinese government is “controlling the movement of the balloon, or is it just floating with air streams,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment in detail.
“I’m not going to go into any specific intelligence that we may have,” he said. “Again, we know this is a Chinese balloon and that it has the ability to maneuver, but I’ll just leave it at that.”
CNN’s Jennifer Hansler contributed reporting.
