Few Senate races have seen as much television advertising in the past month as the contest in Wisconsin, with Republican incumbent Ron Johnson attacking his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, on crime, while Barnes hammers the senator over his opposition to abortion rights.
But for months, polls have shown that voters in the state identify the economy and inflation as top factors in determining their vote in November.
How voters feel about the economy – and which party is best positioned to address their concerns – could determine the outcome of the Senate and the governor’s races in one of the nation’s most important swing states, which Joe Biden narrowly carried in 2020 four years after Wisconsin backed Donald Trump by a similar margin.
Wisconsin’s Senate contest features a twice-elected Republican incumbent with a history of winning tough races against a challenger who is facing increased scrutiny but has won statewide before. While key Senate races in states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania have been animated by controversy in recent weeks, the relative absence of bombastic figures in Wisconsin could result in a contest that is less candidate-driven and more of a referendum on the national economy and political atmosphere.
Barnes and Johnson are set to face off Friday night in their first of two televised debates, and inflation is likely to be among the key topics in that showdown.
“The issue of inflation is one that’s impacting people every day, everywhere,” Barnes said in an interview after a roundtable on abortion rights in Eau Claire this week. “You can talk about both issues. And also, inflation has an impact on whether a person decides to start a family or not.”
A Marquette University Law School poll from last month showed that 70% of registered Wisconsin voters were “very concerned” about inflation – more than any other issue. Another 24% said they were “somewhat concerned.” A Fox News poll of registered Wisconsin voters last month found that 20% identified inflation and rising prices as the most important factor to their Senate vote.
Both Johnson and Barnes have attempted to demonstrate their understanding of the impact of inflation and economic struggles.
In a one-minute biographical video narrated by the GOP nominee’s brother, Johnson’s campaign highlights how the senator worked 12-hour shifts after starting a manufacturing business in Oshkosh – as well as jobs he had as a teenager, including dishwashing, caddying at a golf course and baling hay on his uncle’s farm.
Barnes, meanwhile, describes his upbringing as the son of a Milwaukee school teacher mother and a father who worked third shift at a General Motors factory.
Johnson has pointed to rising gas prices, saying that the blame for inflation lies with Biden and Democratic policies, including spending measures aimed at combatting the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and at jump-starting the United States’ battle against climate change.
“Wisconsin average gas prices, once again, have risen above $4,” Johnson tweeted Thursday. ” Make no mistake, this is the result of Democrats’ reckless deficit spending and radical green energy policies.”
Barnes has criticized Johnson for remarks in February when Wisconsin company Oshkosh Defense won a $155 million federal contract to build 165,000 postal vehicles, a project expected to create 1,000 jobs, and said it would manufacture them in Spartanburg, South Carolina.
Johnson said at the time that he would not “insert myself to demand that anything be manufactured here using federal funds in Wisconsin,” and that “it’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin.” The biggest problem the state faced, he said at the time, was finding enough workers to fill existing jobs.
“It completely ignores the reality, and it also was a green light for more people to start sending jobs out of the state or out of the country,” Barnes said this week of Johnson’s remarks.
“I know what happens when good-paying jobs leave communities,” Barnes said. “That’s the case for much of the industrial Midwest.”
‘Frustration has been all summer long’
Here in Portage – a city in Columbia County, a swing county in the Madison area – officials and store owners said they were struggling to overcome supply chain backlogs and higher costs of goods.
Brothers Dino and Nick Mehmedi, the co-owners of Dino’s Restaurant and Lounge in Portage, are trying to reopen their restaurant after a fire and contractors are struggling to overcome delays in obtaining the parts to repair the damage.
“Frustration has been all summer long,” Nick Mehmedi said. “It’s something I never experienced for myself, to be out of work in my life for such a long time.”
The brothers had already survived a challenge that doomed many restaurants: the Covid-19 pandemic. In April, a second challenge hit when an electrical problem sparked a fire. The Mehmedis said they waited months for the supplies they needed for repairs – particularly certain wires and panels – and are only now close to reopening.
Still, they said, they face a third problem: Higher food costs, which makes it more difficult to continue offering, and turning a profit, on their staple menu items.
“It’s been pretty much struggling with suppliers, and, you know, not on time or not at all in some cases,” Dino Mehmedi said. “And then, pricing increase, especially in a small town like this – you know, you can’t change your menu every day.”
In addition to higher prices, Dino Mehmedi said sometimes food deliveries arrive short of the quantities expected. “It hurts,” he said. “It hurts the business, you know?”
Trump narrowly carried Columbia County in 2016 and 2020 – winning by 635 votes and 517 votes respectively, out of approximately 30,000 and 34,000 cast. Johnson carried the county by 501 votes in 2016, the last time he was on the ballot, while winning statewide by 3 points.
Steven Sobiek, the director of business development and planning for the city of Portage, said a number of building projects have been delayed because of parts shortages and soaring costs of materials.
“I think it’s everywhere. Everyone I talked to across the entire region is having the same issues,” Sobiek said in an interview with CNN at a building site for a facility to transform aftermarket vehicles into emergency vehicles, including police and fire vehicles. Construction had been scheduled to start in February, he said, but was “severely delayed.”
“What I’m finding is that just about any project that I’ve been involved with or helped facilitate has been delayed, and it doesn’t matter if you’re building a single-family house, or you’re building a retail store or restaurant, or you’re building an industrial building like this,” Sobiek said.
Still, Sobiek sees signs of conditions improving as supply chain problems ease and backlogs begin to be cleared.
“I think the bottom line is things are moving, they’re moving forward slower than we’d all like,” he said. “But people are generally optimistic that things are getting better.”
