Editor’s Note: Alice Stewart is a CNN political commentator, a resident fellow at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics and former communications director for Ted Cruz for President. The views expressed in this commentary belong to the author. View more opinion at CNN.
Republican Party leaders are breathing a sigh of relief and Democratic operatives are licking their wounds after their ill-fated political gamesmanship failed them in Tuesday night’s primary election in Kansas. It seems they didn’t know who the real Trump candidate was in this race and in this state – which Trump won by more than 20 points in 2016. Now they know.
Republican US Rep. Roger Marshall beat out the top challenger, former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, in the race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Roberts. Marshall will face Democrat state Sen. Barbara Bollier in the general election in November.
A Democrat hasn’t won a US Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, the longest such streak of any state in the country.
Democrats with dreams of taking a Senate seat in Kansas have awakened to the cold reality that it may not happen. Marshall’s win means they are facing the much more formidable candidate.
If you follow the money, you’ll see the Democrats’ school of thought was not only wrong, but it failed. “The Sunflower State,” an organization assumed to be Democrat-funded, spent millions, apparently to boost Kobach, by calling him “too conservative.” The apparent thinking is that he would be an easier candidate for a Democrat to beat than Marshall.
But keep in mind Trump’s support carries a lot of weight in the Jayhawk State. So, naturally, both Kobach and Marshall billed themselves as the Trump ally. But Democrats banked on Kobach being perceived by GOP voters as the true Trump candidate, and – because of his hard-line views in a few areas – being more vulnerable than Marshall in the general election. But GOP voters disagreed.
To say Kobach is a staunch Trump-ally is an understatement. He supported the President on immigration, he was strong on voting rights laws and he garnered President Trump’s endorsement in his 2018 gubernatorial race. Kobach defended Trump at every turn.
How nice. That kind of loyalty should pay off, right?
Problem is, political loyalty is like a soft blanket or a warm embrace: It’s comfort food. But reality – that bites hard in politics. The reality is that internal National Republican Senatorial Committee polls showed that 29% of GOP primary voters would switch to Bollier in the general election if Kobach won.
Loyalty be darned. If Trump outwardly supported Kobach in the primary, it would not bode well for GOP chances of holding the Kansas Senate seat.
From the outside looking in, one might have thought that with their past mutual support, Kobach was the Trump candidate. But from the inside looking out, Marshall was the real Trump candidate. Perception is everything in politics, and Marshall seemingly got it right. He reminded Kansans he voted with Trump 98% of the time and played up his connection to the President. Perception became reality with those few not-so-subtle reminders.
The two-term Republican representative also had the support of retiring Sen. Pat Roberts, the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansans for Life, and the Chamber of Commerce. And now that he’s won the primary race, he has the full support of President Trump.
After the race, Marshall received the President’s congratulations and “complete and total endorsement.”
Even my former boss, Sen. Ted Cruz, who reportedly tried to encourage Trump to stay neutral in the race, is now on board. I reached out to him the morning after the primary to get his thoughts on Marshall’s victory. He credited Marshall with “an impressive win” and said he “will be working with Marshall to win the seat in November.”
While Sen. Bollier won her Democratic primary in a landslide, she now faces an uphill battle until November. She is a former Republican who now calls herself an “independent voice.” The problem is that Kansas is a red state and she is pro-choice and a party-flipper.
As much as the Democrats hate to admit it, when Kansas voters go to the voting booth in November, the majority are expected to vote for Trump over former Vice President Joe Biden. That’s likely to mean they’ll vote for Marshall, too. Keeping this Senate seat red is important for Kansans.
So, you can expect to see Trump talking up his new pal Marshall through November to ensure the red Senate seat – and, of course, so he can take all the credit if Marshall wins.
