Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 52% to President Donald Trump’s 42%, across different turnout models.
Monmouth’s poll looks a lot like a June New York Times/Siena College survey that put Biden ahead by 10 points.
What’s the point: There is no doubt that Biden is leading the race for president right now. He holds an edge nationally, as well as in the key swing states like Pennsylvania.
In spite of all these numbers, people continuously point to 2016 in order to dismiss or at least put a big asterisk on Biden’s advantage.
Here’s the thing: Biden is simply in a much better polling position than Hillary Clinton was at this time. There really is no comparison, except that both races had or have Trump as a candidate.
Four years ago, the polls being released at this juncture were conducted just before the Republican convention got under way.
View 2020 presidential election polling
As I’ve pointed out before, polls taken in early to mid July can be good estimates about where a race will end up. This period is usually before the major party conventions. Voters tend to have a pretty good idea of who the candidates are, and we don’t have to worry about fleeting convention bounces showing up in the polls.
The race in Pennsylvania was quite close in mid-July.
Although Monmouth wasn’t active in Pennsylvania in early July 2020, Marist College and Quinnipiac University were. The average of their polls put Clinton at 39% to Trump’s 38%, which is where an average of all the polls put the contest.
In other words, Clinton’s edge was well within any margin of error. In fact, it was just two points different from the eventual election margin in Pennsylvania (Trump by a point).
Biden’s lead is outside the margin of error at this point.
More than that, Clinton wasn’t just under 50% in the polls, she was under 40%. Biden, on the other hand, is at 50% in the average poll in Pennsylvania and above that in the Monmouth poll.
I’ve noted in the past that the 50% is a key marker because to win Pennsylvania at this point Trump would need to convince voters who are with Biden to switch to him. He can’t just rely on luring over undecided voters. In 2016, that wasn’t the case. Trump could get plurality support merely from convincing undecided and third party voters to go his way.
Visit CNN’s Election Center for full coverage of the 2020 race
When you dig deeper, you really get an understanding of Biden’s firmer footing.
His favorable rating in the Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania was 45%. His very unfavorable rating (i.e. those who really don’t like him) was 32%. The New York Times poll last month had Biden with a 50% favorable rating and just a 32% unfavorable rating.
Clinton’s favorable rating among Pennsylvania voters averaged 35% in early July 2016. Her very unfavorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was as astoundingly high 54%. Voters really didn’t like her. I’ve never seen any very unfavorable rating like that for Biden in any remotely competitive state.
If the trends in the Pennsylvania polling between 2016 and 2020 were occurring in isolation, it would be one thing. They’re reflective, though, of a nationwide trend.
Biden is polling close to if not above 50% in live interview polls nationally. The ABC News/Washington Post, Fox News, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University polls released this week have Biden near or above 50% and with a high single digit to double digit advantage.
Like in Pennsylvania, Clinton’s lead nationally didn’t look like this at all. She was less than five points ahead of Trump, and she wasn’t close to 50%.
Moreover, Biden’s net favorability (favorable - unfavorable) rating nationally is averaging at about +3 points in live interviewer polls at this point. Clinton’s net favorability rating was averaging around -18 points in mid-July 2016.
Now, none of this guarantees Biden will end up doing better than Clinton. Maybe, Trump will pull another rabbit out of his hat.
But if 2020 is going to end up with a similar outcome to 2016, Trump is going to have to close the gap much more so than he did in 2016.
