Democrats rode a conversation about health care to sweeping victories in 2018 and are keen to do it again this November.
The debate, which helped the party take control of the House two years ago, rests on President Donald Trump’s repeated push to have the courts strike down the Affordable Care Act, former President Barack Obama’s sweeping health care law that provided coverage to millions of Americans. But the coronavirus pandemic has further heightened the urgency, leading Democrats from former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign and top super PACs to argue Trump is looking to cut American’s health care in the middle of a global pandemic.
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The Trump campaign claims they are eager for the debate, citing Obamacare as an unpopular law that hurt Democrats during Obama’s presidency. But Republicans who saw up close how health care sunk their hopes two years ago warn how detrimental the debate could be to Trump and Republicans in November.
“Republicans can’t afford to litigate health care for the second election in a row,” said a senior Republican strategist. “We saw how this turned out in 2018 and we didn’t have a global pandemic and economic depression to go along with it.”
The latest example of the Democrats’ strategy came last week when Priorities USA, a top Democratic super PAC, released a digital ad hammering Trump for looking to cut back health care coverage. The ad featured Trump recent saying, “We want to terminate health care under Obamacare.”
“Our lives are on pause. We are worried about our health and Trump is asking the Supreme Court to take away our health care,” a narrator says in the spot. “One-hundred and thirty-three million Americans could lose coverage in the middle of a deadly pandemic. Trump is putting us at risk.”
Biden, too, has started to use the same messaging, hitting Trump for wanting to end Obamacare as coronavirus spreads.
“During a global pandemic, they’re trying to overturn (Obamacare) and strip millions of American of health insurance,” Biden said this month during a virtual roundtable with African-American leaders in Jacksonville. “They should drop that lawsuit today. And Trump should reopen Obamacare enrollment so every American can access coverage today when they need it most.”
For Democrats, the focus on health care is a no-brainer, especially after the party won 41 seats to take back the House by relentlessly focusing on the issue ahead of the 2018 midterms.
But operatives like Josh Schwerin, spokesman for Priorities USA, believe that argument takes on even more importance as the coronavirus roils the country and has most Americans solely focused on the health and well-being of their families.
“In 2017, 2018 and 2019, we said we needed to talk about health care and the economy. In our lifetimes we’ve never had something more relevant to health care and the economy than COVID,” Schwerin said. “Trump’s team said recently they want to make Trump the health care president. I don’t think they really thought this one through.”
Democrats’ messaging on health care focuses on an upcoming Supreme Court hearing on the future of Obamacare, which pits Democrat-led states like California against the Trump administration and more red-states like Texas. Trump, despite concerns from Attorney General William Barr, has fully backed using the Supreme Court to attempt to fully nullify Obamacare.
Trump campaign operatives, citing once dim views of Obamacare, said they believe the Affordable Care Act remains an unpopular policy with many Americans, particularly the Republican Party’s base. Driving Republican turnout is a key part of the Trump campaign victory strategy and they believe health care is among the issues that will motivates their voters.
“Democrats are suffering from amnesia if they thought the Affordable Care Act was the solution to America’s health care problems,” said Trump campaign spokesman Rick Gorka, pointing to lapses in coverage, patients being unable to keep the doctor of their choice and premium increases under the Affordable Care Act. “It is a weird argument to make in a pandemic.”
The issue for Republicans, though: While it is easy for them to downplay the popular aspects of Obamacare and amplify the problems with the program, they still do not have an alternative plan of their own, meaning Democrats can credibly say the party wants to take away health care from millions of Americans without a tangible replacement.
“Americans aren’t looking for a dramatic overhaul of their health care system,” he said. “They are looking for reform and improvements to the system that is already in place. That is something Republicans have offered.”
Republicans also plan to try to turn health care on Democrats, pointing to support of sweeping Medicare for All programs during the party’s primary as proof that Democrats are too extreme on the issue, despite the fact that Biden never backed those comprehensive changes – instead favoring an expansion of Obamacare as well as the creation of a public option.
“The conversation on health care is more complicated for them in ’20 than in ‘18 because of Democrats’ debate about Medicare for All during the primary,” said Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Hunt, who worked for the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018, added that, “All roads (for Democrats) eventually lead to eliminating private health insurance.”
Tyler Law, an operative who worked for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2018 cycle, said key voters didn’t buy Republican health care messaging two years ago and they are unlikely to again this year.
“The Democrats’ healthcare message in 2018 was so effective because there wasn’t any spin on the ball – Republicans voted to repeal the ACA and strip protections for preexisting conditions, and then sued to dismantle the law,” Law said. “Same principle applies again in 2020 where Republicans are still suing, and Trump is saying on camera that he wants ‘to terminate healthcare.’”
