(CNN)President Donald Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic has upended Republican plans for how to run against Democrats in races up and down the ballot this year.
The ongoing global pandemic and chaotic response from the Trump administration has left Republican candidates campaigning in an environment where voters are more focused on the President's leadership than partisan rhetoric, a dynamic that is increasingly worrying party insiders who are trying to hold onto the Senate in November's election. It comes at the same time that polling in some battleground states show former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, with a lead in key battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
"Ultimately this entire election is going to be determined on an issue set directly connected to coronavirus and the economy," said Chris Jankowski, a GOP operative based in Utah who has run statewide and House races in the past. "As a result, the President's performance and his role in guiding the country during that time frame is going to be incredibly important and will have a lot do with how Americans view Republicans, particularly those incumbent Republicans."
Trump's shadow has always loomed large, but in the age of coronavirus, where one issue has come to dominate the headlines, every move the President makes filters down to Republicans at every level. That includes his controversial press briefings, his unpredictable Twitter feed and his often knee-jerk policy proposals and executive orders.
"Every one of these campaign teams running down ballot races needs to start their morning staff calls by asking, 'What did Trump say today,' and then coming up with a strategy to deal with it," said a top Republican aide in the Senate.
Democrats have been using video of these moments against Trump for months, producing tough ads that track the President's comments downplaying the spread of the virus with its rise inside the United States. The ads have affected the President, who has taken to tweeting about them, and Republican operatives running down ballot races expect they will become standard fare once advertising ramps up in key swing states.
Few Republicans have been willing to publicly break with Trump, especially those who will share a ballot with the President this November. Some, like Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, have done just that, leading the President to publicly disparage him and leave him off a key coronavirus task force.
Because of that, along with the President's popularity with Republican voters, Trump's campaign does not expect many Republicans to seek distance with the President. And they are all but daring candidates considering it to do so.
"The President has record support amongst Republicans, so I would remind candidates that they need the President supporters, they need his voters to show up for them in the polls," said Rick Gorka, a top Trump aide. "And to be perfectly blunt, if the President is going to win, you have a good chance of winning. If you're going to try to break with the President and thread a needle, good luck with that."
Particularly worrying to Republicans, though, is Trump's standing in key swing states that are likely to decide the election. A recent series of polls found former Biden in a tight race with Trump in Florida, an eight-point lead in Michigan and an eight-point lead in Pennsylvania.
Even still, it is near impossible to run as a Republican by breaking with Trump, operatives said. Republican Senate incumbents are running in North Carolina, Maine, Colorado and Arizona. In total, 12 Senate seats held by Democrats are up for reelection in 2020, compared to 23 held by Republicans.
"It is a real concern at this point," said the Senate Republican aide. "We were looking at picking up a few seats even if we lost some. Now there are a whole new group of states that are a real problem."
While Republicans are confident they can regain the Senate seat in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones is running for reelection in a state Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points, they are increasingly concerned about tight races in Arizona and Colorado. And as Trump's standing with voters deteriorates, there are worries that states like North Carolina, Maine and maybe even Iowa could be opportunities for Democrats. With a slim four seat majority and far more incumbent Republicans in competitive races than Democrats, there is very little margin for error for the GOP.
And the issue for Republicans is there is no roadmap for running in this kind of scenario.
"We are in uncharted territory," said a top Republican strategist working on down ballot races. "There is no previous campaign where this has been a relevant issue, or where they had to deal with something like this. We are operating in the clouds ... with no instruments."
Ford O'Connell, a former Republican congressional candidate in Florida and a supporter of the President, points to the results in 2016 as the best example of how Trump's support filters down the ballot. Not one Senate race in 2016 split from the top of the ticket, leading O'Connell predicts a similar situation could play out in 2020 in almost every state except for Maine, where longtime incumbent Susan Collins has built her own brand.
In O'Connell's view, these GOP Senate candidates need to hope that Trump is able to turn around the massive blow to the economy created by the coronavirus.
"Covid-19 has eroded the traditional incumbency advantage Trump would normally enjoy because of the way it has destroyed the economy," said O'Connell. "Trump isn't really running against Biden, he is running against the virus. That is why he -- and those running as Republicans in 2020 -- are desperate to get the economy open as safely and as quickly as possible."
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, remains confident Republicans will win up and down the ballot in the fall. They point to Trump's strong fundraising totals, his volunteer recruitment and the millions of unique views of their online broadcasts as evidence the enthusiasm behind his campaign is strong.
"The President enjoys unprecedented support from Republicans across the country," said Tim Murtaugh, the campaign's communications director. "Candidates up and down the ballot know the way to be successful as a Republican is to tap into the enthusiasm behind him."
And Republicans argue, despite the current weak poll numbers, there is still a long way to go before the November elections.
"One week of bad numbers does not define a campaign, it may define a news cycle, but it does not define a campaign," said Chris LaCivita, a Virginia-based GOP consultant working on several House races. "Reports of the Republican demise are greatly exaggerated."
