First things first: The theme song of the week is Thank You for Being A Friend from the show The Golden Girls written by Andrew Gold and sung by Cynthia Fee.
Poll of the week: A Des Moines Register poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Iowa at 46%, while his disapproval rating in the same poll is at 50%.
This mirrors a year-long Gallup poll in Iowa which has Trump’s approval rating at 45% and his disapproval rating at 51%.
What’s the point: There’s little doubt that Trump would lose if the 2020 election were held today and it was was a referendum on his job as president. His approval rating has been well below his disapproval rating throughout his presidency.
A far more interesting question is how high does his approval rating actually have to climb in order for him to have a better than minimal chance of winning in 2020.
Polls like the ones from Iowa suggest that Trump may be able to win, even if his approval rating nationally is below his disapproval rating. That is, Trump may be able to do exactly what he did in 2016: win the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote.
There were four states where Barack Obama performed better than he did nationally in 2012 that Hillary Clinton then lost in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Clinton had won Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Iowa or Wisconsin, she would have won the Electoral College.
Iowa and Wisconsin are the most likely to continue to cause heartache for the Democrats in 2020. A loss in both of these states would cause the Democratic nominee to fall short in 2020, if she or he carries all the states Clinton won, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Although Trump’s net approval rating (approval rating - disapproval rating) is upside down in Iowa, it’s not as low as his net approval rating is nationally. Over the course of 2018, his net approval rating nationally in Gallup polling was -15 points. That’s far lower than it was Iowa (-6 points). Trump’s national numbers right now are also far worse than what his numbers are in the Des Moines Register poll. If his net approval rating goes up across the nation, he’s likely to get into positive territory in Iowa long before he gets into positive territory nationwide.
Trump’s numbers are not nearly as good in Wisconsin, though they tell a similar story. The Gallup poll has his approval rating at 42% and his disapproval rating is at 53%. That makes for a net approval rating of -11 points. In other words, Trump’s net approval rating in Wisconsin was 4 points higher than it is nationally in 2018.
A recent Marquette University poll from the Badger State drives homes the same point. The poll found that Trump’s approval rating with voters was 44% with a disapproval rating of 52%, which equals a -8 point net approval rating. At the time this poll was in the field, the average poll of voters nationally had Trump’s net approval rating at -13 points. Again, illustrating Trump being in a better (if still weak) position in Wisconsin than nationally.
The midterm results from Iowa and Wisconsin generally back up the idea that they are to right of the nation. Once we take into account House seats in which there was no Democrat or Republican running, Democrats won the national House vote by seven points. Democrats were able to pick up two House seats in Iowa and won the House vote in the state by 4 points, but that’s still worse than they did nationally despite Republican Rep. Steve King getting dragged down by scandal. Democrats won the national house vote by 3 points in Wisconsin, after taking into account uncontested races. Democrats didn’t come close to capturing the seat of the retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Now, Democrats did beat Republican Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin and held onto their Senate seat in the state easily. Yet, they only beat Walker by a point. The exit poll from the state had Trump’s approval rating at 48%, well above the 45% he registered nationally. That’s quite a turn around from the last Democratic midterm wave in 2006 when Wisconsin was further to the left than the nation. Then President George W. Bush had a lower approval rating in Wisconsin than he did nationally.
In Iowa, Democrats couldn’t win the big statewide race in 2018. They lost the governor’s election to appointed incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds by 3 points. (There was no 2018 exit poll from Iowa, though Trump’s popularity in a pre-election Des Moines Register poll was greater than it was nationally.)
Of course, just because Trump is running ahead of his national ratings in Iowa and Wisconsin right now doesn’t mean that will hold come 2020. Who the Democrats nominate could play a crucial role in whether it does. Additionally, Trump remains unpopular enough nationally that he is still more disliked than liked in Iowa and Wisconsin, so for this difference between the nation and Iowa and Wisconsin to matter Trump will need to become more popular nationally or Democrats will need nominate an unpopular candidate.
Still, this data should be at least somewhat worrisome for Democrats. If the Democratic nominee does, in fact, lose Iowa and Wisconsin, she or he will have to win in a state that hasn’t voted to the left of the nation in the past few cycles in order to win the Electoral College. That may not be such an easy task.
