(CNN)For as remarkable a week as this was in American politics, it was even more wild on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
First, British Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to take the country out of the European Union -- after the 2016 Brexit vote -- was roundly rejected by Parliament. Then, amazingly, May survived a "no confidence" vote.
Which left Britain utterly gridlocked -- a Prime Minister unable to push through a plan to institute Brexit and an opposition unable to replace her. And in the background, the ticking clock of the mandated March 29 British exit from the EU.
It's a wild, wild, wild world. I reached out to my old friend Sebastian Payne, a political writer at the Financial Times, to explain it all. Our conversation, conducted via email and edited lightly for flow, is below.
Cillizza: This week we saw May's Brexit plan fail and then the PM barely survive a "no confidence" vote. Was any of this unexpected?
Payne: Nope.
British members of Parliament from all parties have said for months that they could and would not vote for May's deal. So the defeat was a matter of when, not if. But no one in Westminster expected the Prime Minister to suffer such a thumping humiliation. In fact she has set a new record for the worst defeat by any sitting government.
In normal times, May would have had to resign and the government fallen. But these are anything but. The old laws of political gravity no longer seem to apply. The very same rebellious MPs who voted down a critical piece of the government's legislative agenda voted to save the government 24 hours later -- the no confidence motion. So the House of Commons is paralyzed: it can't pass Brexit, but it can't do anything else. Zombified.
Cillizza: How is May still standing politically after this week? And will she survive much longer?
Payne: After eating a lot of peanut butter -- her favorite snack. It has been one of May's worst weeks since entering Downing Street. Her standing is incredibly weak; her political capital is all but run out. But oddly enough, that is also her strength. She is lucky that there is no obvious successor to take over and no immediate mechanism to force her out.
The Conservative Party triggered a leadership vote at the end of last year but the rebels failed to count and did not have the numbers to remove their dear leader. The Prime Minister cannot be challenged again until December 2019. She might be forced to resign by her Cabinet, or announce that she will go soon after Brexit Day, or might lose an election. It's hard to see how she is in power this time next year.
Cillizza: The Brexit deadline is March 29. Is there any reasonable chance a compromise plan on how to leave the EU emerges in Britain between now and then?
Payne: There is only one deal on the table from the EU and it will sit there until March 28. That deal can be tweaked and made to look more appealing to the British Parliament -- but don't expect any major changes. The best hope this little island can hope for to avoid (yet more) chaos is for MPs to work across party lines to figure out what tweaks can garner a majority. In all likelihood, that means a softer Brexit that will keep the UK closer to the EU. Brexit supporters will hate it, but what can they do? They voted down a plan that gave them almost everything they wanted.
Cillizza: What happens if the Brexit deadline comes and there is NO plan to leave? Can it be postponed? No?
Payne: We still leave. That's the default outcome if nothing changes. MPs passed a bill two years ago to trigger the Article 50 proceedings to quit the EU. The only way to delay leaving the EU therefore is to request an extension to the talks --- MPs would have to vote on that too as the date is set in law. Or May could opt to rescind Article 50 and we would remain in the EU. Both would cause outrage among the 52% of the country that voted for Brexit. I'm not sure there's a majority for either way to avoid no-deal at the moment. So we could well end up with an accidental exit with no deal and without full preparations. Hold on!
Cillizza: Finish this sentence: In one year's time, the name of the British Prime Minister is _____________." Now, explain.
Payne: "Boris Johnson. Maybe."
Theresa May will probably be gone from Downing Street this time next year and the Tories will have a new leader. After all the turbulence, the party is going to want someone to make them feel good about themselves. There's only one candidate who can do that: the Brexit blonde bombshell. Party members love Johnson, Brexiters adore him. But pro-EU folks loathe everything he stands for. He'd be incredibly divisive, a British Donald Trump, if you like.
Or the government could finally collapse, somehow, the opposition Labour Party sweeps into power and Jeremy Corbyn would form a new left-wing government. But his tough Brexit choices would not be that much different to Theresa May's.
