John Boehner appears secure in his speakership – for now.
Senior House Republicans are beginning to close ranks behind Boehner, blunting conservatives who are trying to oust the speaker because they’re frustrated he isn’t more confrontational with President Barack Obama.
The rapidly shifting developments are giving Boehner and his leadership team space to move forward this month with a complicated plan to fund the government through the fall without immediately restricting money to Planned Parenthood, something bound to prompt a sharp outcry from conservatives.
House Republican leaders are expected to soon move forward with a short-term funding bill. Separately, they would aim to pass a measure to defund Planned Parenthood through a process known as “budget reconciliation” that would bypass a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.
That would presumably avert the threat of a government shutdown at month’s end, as the White House would veto a funding bill that axes money to Planned Parenthood, and Boehner allies have been moving to tamp down opposition to the effort.
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Boehner’s hold on the speakership is strengthened because conservatives lack an alternative candidate – or much of a strategy – to replace the Ohio Republican. And a growing number of rank-and-file House GOP lawmakers are eager to move past the intraparty warfare that has undercut much of the party’s agenda.
Rep. Blake Farenthold, a conservative Texas Republican who voted for Boehner in January but has demanded the leadership take a harder line on Planned Parenthood, told CNN he wouldn’t currently support a resolution known as “vacating the chair.” That rare procedural move would strip Boehner of the speaker’s gavel if successful.
“I’m not going to support a ‘vacate the chair’ until we got somebody I think can do a better job than Boehner,” Farenthold said Thursday. “There’s no point throwing Boehner out until there is somebody to replace him.”
Planned Parenthood has become a top target of congressional Republicans after edited videos surfaced this summer from an anti-abortion group showing organization officials discussing the sale of aborted tissue.
Despite the drama unfolding in the House, Boehner won the public backing Thursday of his No. 2 – House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California – who called on House Republicans to drop efforts to ouster him.
“If we (delve) into this type of debate, we only weaken ourselves on what we want to achieve,” McCarthy told reporters.
Asked how confident he was that he could maintain his hold of the speakership, Boehner said: “Very.”
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Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, a close ally of Boehner’s, told reporters Thursday that that the speaker could easily beat back a challenge, saying, “Anybody can bring that at any time, but it’s survivable.”
He suggested that party leaders should allow the vote to come to the House floor to “put it to rest.”
The House Freedom Caucus, a conservative group that includes some Republicans opposed to Boehner, are deliberating their plans to overthrow the speaker. They need more than 29 House Republicans to vote to vacate the chair if they want to throw Boehner’s speakership into flux. In January, 25 House Republicans refused to back the speaker. If additional Republicans were to vote against him, Boehner could rely on Democratic votes to keep his leadership post, though that would undermine him politically.
Arizona Rep. Matt Salmon, a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, said the debate over the funding bill and Planned Parenthood could be the “proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back” among those calling for a new speaker.
But Salmon added: “There’s no concerted effort right now to replace Boehner,” admitting that “it’s just talk. That’s all it is.”
Other leaders of the House Freedom Caucus said they would wait until after Pope Francis’ visit to the Capitol next week to push forward on a vote. They are waiting to see how Boehner handles a number of thorny issues this fall – including raising the debt limit, whether to revive the controversial Export-Import Bank and the government shutdown fight — before pressing forward on their plans.
“Look, the problem that we have here is not an ideological problem with Speaker Boehner,” said Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Kentucky, a leader of the effort to oust Boehner. “The problem that we have here is that he’s subverting our republic.”
Massie said the GOP does have a viable alternative – Rep. Daniel Webster, a 66-year-old Florida conservative who challenged Boehner in January but won just 12 votes.
“Daniel Webster is a very viable alternative,” Massie said.
When it comes to the funding fight, the math is already against Boehner. Thirty-one House Republicans, led by South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, are on record saying they won’t vote for a spending bill that doesn’t defund Planned Parenthood. That means Boehner will have to rely on Democrats to pass any government funding bill – something he’s had to do in previous showdowns.
Simpson, the Idaho Republican, said it’s time to write off this group of conservatives, since they were “never” going to vote for a short-term spending bill in any event.
“We shouldn’t be spending all our time trying to satisfy those 30 people,” Simpson said.
Still, setting aside the demands of this group could be perilous for Boehner, some conservatives warn.
“We serve at the pleasure of our constituents, ” Idaho GOP Rep. Raul Labrador told CNN, adding a warning aimed at Boehner, “we’re the constituents when it comes to the speaker.”
In July, North Carolina Republican Rep. Mark Meadows began the play to oust Boehner by offering the motion to “vacate the chair” on the House floor. His resolution was immediately sent to languish in the House Rules Committee, a panel stacked with Boehner allies. Even fellow conservatives critical of Meadows say his move was disorganized and ineffective. But it brought old criticisms to the surface, and the conservative base seized onto it.
The House Freedom Caucus, however, is led by Boehner’s Ohio colleague Jim Jordan and he has expressed little interest in going after the top post.
Conservative unrest has been a regular undercurrent in the GOP-led House since Boehner took the gavel in 2011. But it is at an especially high level this fall – and could force private questions about Boehner’s ability to lead House Republicans into a messy public vote on the House floor to depose him.
Federal agencies run out of money at the end of the month and GOP congressional leaders are scrambling to come up with a strategy to avoid another government shutdown.
Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, the majority whip, told reporters Thursday that his preferred tactic is to put a plan to defund Planned Parenthood onto a reconciliation bill, which cannot be filibustered in the Senate. President Barack Obama could still veto the plan, but Scalise believes it would send a political message to the White House and avoid a politically damaging shutdown.
On Thursday, Boehner called the strategy to try to deliver a bill to Obama’s desk “a distinct possibility” but emphasized “there are a lot of steps” in the process.
The internal fight inside the House Freedom Caucus over strategy on the annual spending bill broke into public view on Wednesday when California Rep. Tom McClintock resigned from the group and released a sharply worded letter criticizing the group for undercutting his party’s efforts.
Boehner allies seized on the dissension within the group to seek to marginalize the dissenters.
“This same group has frustrated our effort by joining with Democrats by preventing us from moving forward a conservative agenda,” said Oregon GOP Rep. Greg Walden. “I don’t get it.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated Rep. Mike Simpson’s home state. He is from Idaho.
