Boris Johnson pushes for Brexit deal ahead of EU summit

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Michel Barnier has now finished briefing EU ambassadors in Brussels on the latest Brexit developments.

A Brexit agreement “feels unlikely” to be reached on Wednesday during crunch talks between UK and EU negotiators, a government source has told CNN. 

The source says 10 Downing St is “guiding operationally not to expect anything tonight.”

The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier has started his briefing to EU ambassadors on Brexit, according to a spokesman.

The briefing had been due to start at 7 p.m. local (1 p.m. ET).

French President Emmanuel Macron during a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Toulouse, southwestern France, on Thursday.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday he wanted to believe a Brexit deal was being finalized and could be agreed on at the European Council summit Thursday.

He continued, “We would like to endorse an agreement that I hope will be found in the next few hours. The feedback we’re getting today is positive.”

The French president also thanked the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier for leading negotiations with “respect for the member states.”

We’re certainly getting some positive quotes out of this joint presser from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Merkel told reporters that Brexit talks between EU and UK negotiators in Brussels are on the “home stretch” on Wednesday evening, a day before a crucial EU summit that may approve a divorce deal with Britain.

Merkel said she “believes there will be an agreement between the EU and the UK from what I’ve heard in the last few days and I believe even more that a deal is possible.”

Merkel praised the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier for what he is expected to carry out “under these difficult circumstances” involving the other 27 EU members.

As the Brexit clock has ticked down over the last week and negotiating parties have continued to attempt to thrash out a deal, the pound has shot up. What happens next will likely have a huge impact on the British currency.

Traders are on edge as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson races to hammer out an agreement to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union before the October 31 deadline. 

The pound was trading above $1.28 at 11:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, and analysts believe it could jump as high as $1.35 or even $1.40 if Johnson is able to secure a deal that avoids a chaotic Brexit that ruptures trade and economic ties. One week ago, the pound was trading close to $1.22.

Read more from CNN Business on what market analysts are advising their clients with the pound under pressure.

UNITED KINGDOM - 2019/08/07: In this photo illustration, British Pound sterling banknotes are seen as Pound to US Dollar exchange rates are now trading close to a 2 ½ year low, with the Pound now trading under 1.21 on the inter-bank exchange against US dollar. If the UK leaves the European Union without a deal on 31 2019, it is forecasted that the Pound will fall to the lowest level since 1985 against US Dollar. (Photo Illustration by Steve Taylor/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Related article Brexit countdown is sending the pound on a wild ride. There's more to come

File picture of Boris Johnson and DUP leader Arlene Foster on July 2, 2019 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

No political party has more at stake in Brexit negotiations than Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

As talks teeter on the cusp of calamity or consensus, the DUP face the toughest choice in their history: compromise on Northern Ireland’s connection to the UK.

Brexit talks pivot on customs and consensus, or as DUP leader Arlene Foster frames it “respect of [the] constitutional and economic place of Northern Ireland in UK.” In real terms that appears to be coming down to what is euphemistically termed a border down the Irish Sea separating Northern Ireland and Great Britain, something the DUP have rejected before.

For decades the DUP have been a bastion for the province’s protestant Unionists resistant to a rising tide Irish nationalism. Past leaders grew infamous with chants of “no surrender,” determined to keep Northern Ireland an inseparable part of the United Kingdom.

Today’s DUP leaders have got more face time in the past few days with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson than most members of his Cabinet as he seeks to sooth their jangled nerves.

For Johnson, Brexit is a political calculation. Polls in his party a few months ago revealed they’d dump the DUP if that’s what it took to get Brexit done even though the herculean task of getting Brexit through Parliament becomes nigh impossible without them.

The EU demands, and Johnson agrees, that Northern Ireland must maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland, as written in the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement that ended decades of sectarian bloodshed.

The DUP sense an existential threat, not just for the party, but on the value they hold dearest, an unbreakable bond with Britain.

Whether the Irish border of significance separating the EU and UK becomes Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland (RoI) border or Island of Ireland, RoI/GB border gets to centuries of history, of family narratives, of volatile parades and traditions going back to Battle of Boyne (1689), when Protestant King William of Orange triumphed over Catholic forces.

This weight of history sits on the DUP’s shoulders alongside a fear of a future in a United Ireland. Meanwhile the UUP, their NI Unionist political rivals breathe down their neck hoping to reap the spoils of a bad DUP decision.

Many of their voters are farmers and small businessmen whose livelihoods depend on an open border with Ireland. It’s counterintuitive to the party’s raison d’etre yet feeds in to fears of a slow slide towards a united Ireland.

If talks collapse, Northern Ireland nationalist politicians demand a “border poll,” in essence a vote to get rid of the border forever, and detach Northern Ireland from the UK.

The dilemma for the DUP seem multiple and inescapable: Give Johnson too much political wiggle room and they will be eaten by their own but miscalculate and a united Ireland edges closer.

Their voters know no amount of history will put food on their table, pragmatism beckons, and that for the DUP has always been one of their toughest challenges.

Downing Street has announced that a motion has been tabled for Parliament to sit on Saturday from 9:30 a.m. (4:30 a.m ET) until 2 p.m (9 a.m. ET), according to Britain’s PA news agency.

According to Boris Johnson’s official spokesman, the motion “simply sets out the intention for Parliament to sit on Saturday,” and would involve both the House of Commons and House of Lords, according to PA.

If approved, it would be the first time in decades that a special weekend session has been held.

The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is now due to brief EU ambassadors on Brexit at 7 p.m. local (1 p.m. ET) Wednesday, according to an EU diplomat.

It’s the second time the briefing has been pushed back.

The Cabinet meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Cabinet has broken off early, according to Britain’s PA news agency, as the nation continues to negotiate a Brexit deal with the EU.

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Theresa Villiers said after the meeting that as far as she knew “negotiations are still continuing” and that “we just have to wait and see.”

Villiers added that she believes a deal can be secured in time for Thursday’s EU summit.

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Theresa Villiers arriving at Downing Street on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Grant Shapps – the UK’s Secretary of State for Transport – told reporters: “We’re getting very close to being able to resolve this,” according to PA. “There’s nothing I can tell you that you don’t already know.”

“We’re just hopeful – we don’t know but either way we’ll be absolutely ready, deal or no deal,” he added.

You might not have heard it, but Brexit is hitting a pretty critical moment. With just days to go until the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union, nothing is certain and time is running seriously short.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

What’s going on?

The UK and EU are in secret negotiations, referred to in Brexit jargon as “the tunnel,” trying to reach an agreement that can be presented to the European Council of leaders on Thursday.

Boris Johnson said from the moment he launched his bid to be the UK Prime Minister that he would only negotiate with Brussels if it was willing to open up Theresa May’s thrice-defeated Brexit deal, formally known as the Withdrawal Agreement.

If successful, the next step is for the other 27 EU member states to give it the thumbs up or thumbs down when they meet in Brussels on Thursday.

Could a deal be reached by tomorrow?

Speculation as to what is happening is wild at the moment. But the fact that very little official is being said is a sign that both sides are eager to reach a deal. When the EU is angry, its effective briefing network lets journalists know.

It’s possible that the EU will ultimately decide there is insufficient time for a deal to be reached by tomorrow, but that it is willing to carry on negotiating. At that point, the summit meeting becomes about (yet another) Brexit extension.

Didn’t Boris Johnson promise not to delay Brexit under any circumstances?

He did. But it’s not entirely up to him. If the EU27, as the remaining member states are known, agree on a technical extension for talks and to arrive at a deal, they will do so working on the assumption that the UK will have to request one.

Last month, opposition lawmakers in the UK passed a bill that would force the UK to request an extension by 11 p.m. on Saturday, (6 p.m. ET), if no deal with the EU is in place. That letter doesn’t need to be sent by Johnson himself, but obstructing it would be a clear violation of a clear law.

What happens if a deal is reached?

There is a slim chance, but if it is, then lawmakers will get their chance to vote on it on Saturday, when Parliament will sit in a special weekend session for the first time in decades. Unfortunately for Johnson, he has several hurdles to leap before then.

Any deal would need approval from his Cabinet. It would then need to be agreed by all EU27 member states, who are suspicious of Johnson’s motives. Finally, it would need to get through Parliament. Here, Johnson would need to square off Brexit moderates and hardliners, something Theresa May found impossible.

He will also have to get the Northern Irish DUP on board, and the mood music there isn’t good. The DUP has been the single largest stumbling block to any Brexit deal and its leader, Arlene Foster, was not super enthusiastic after a 90-minute meeting with Johnson on Tuesday.

So… what’s going to happen?

Look, I’d tell you if I could. The reality is that events are fluid and no one really knows what’s going on. Details of what a deal might look like vary depending on whom you talk to, and support for a deal both in Brussels and Westminster looks flimsy.

Basically, between Johnson getting a deal and Parliament voting it through and the Prime Minister breaking the law and being arrested on live television, anything is possible.

European Council President Donald Tusk pictured on Friday.

The “basic foundations” of a Brexit deal are “ready,” and “in seven or eight hours everything should be clear,” President of the European Council, Donald Tusk said, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

“The basic foundations of an agreement are ready and theoretically tomorrow we could accept this deal with Great Britain,” Tusk told journalists in Brussels, AFP said. “Theoretically, in seven or eight hours everything should be clear.”

Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Arlene Foster, has shut down rumors that the party had accepted a key aspect of the plan put forward by Boris Johnson, removing a crucial obstacle to an agreement with the EU.

Foster said the sources of the reporter – a well-connected correspondent with Irish broadcaster RTE – were “talking nonsense,” and that “discussions continue” with Downing Street.

The stumbling block, at least as it relates to the DUP, is the issue of “consent.”

According to reports, the plan put forward by Johnson gives the Northern Ireland Assembly the chance to vote every few years on whether to continue to endorse the hybrid customs arrangements for the region. In the delicate balance of the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland after decades of conflict, a simple majority in the assembly isn’t always enough on key issues. Both sides of the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland must agree.

The EU fears that giving the assembly a say over customs would effectively grant a veto to the DUP, the hardline unionist party that props up Johnson’s minority government in London. But Johnson needs the DUP’s support to get any deal through Parliament.

DUP representatives have been in and out of Downing Street repeatedly in the last 24 hours. And it doesn’t look like their support is nailed down yet.

“UK & EU negotiators, who have ad nauseam pontificated about the need to respect the Agreement, have no business interfering in the processes for consent as currently set out,” tweeted the party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson.

In other news, the London Assembly – which ensures the London mayor’s policies, actions and strategies are in the public interest – has said it’s been asked to pause its investigation into Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s alleged relationship with Jennifer Arcuri.

Johnson’s faced pressure after The Sunday Times reported that a company run by the tech entrepreneur received tens of thousands of pounds in public funding when Johnson was mayor.

Boris Johnson and Jennifer Arcuri pictured together in London in 2014.

Chair of the London Assembly Oversight Committee, Len Duvall, said in a statement that the assembly “respects” the Independent Office of Police Conduct’s (IOPC) request to halt the investigation “and will not in any way interfere with its important work,” according to Britain’s PA news agency.

The European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier briefing to EU ambassadors on Brexit has been delayed until 5 p.m. local (11 a.m. ET), according to a spokesman for his office.

The briefing was initially due to take place at 2 p.m. local (8 a.m. ET).

European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) walks with Ireland's Taoiseach Leo Varadkar (R) in the grounds of Thornton Manor Hotel near Birkenhead on October 10.

One of the reasons why a Brexit deal appears so close is that Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar, the British and Irish leaders, appear to be singing from the same hymn sheet. And that’s a bit of a worry for EU officials.

The EU has consistently said it would follow Ireland’s lead on any final deal, because of the specific issues Brexit posed for the Irish border. Keeping that border open and avoiding the potential for a return to violence in Northern Ireland is precisely why the EU insisted that any negotiated Brexit deal contained a backstop, or insurance policy, ensuring that the border remained open. 

But the backstop also did something else. It protected the EU’s single market. 

Varadkar’s recent move towards relative chumminess with Johnson has surprised EU officials. Their concern now is this: What happens if Varadkar softens his position to support a deal that would give the UK as a third party some say on the single market’s future?

Views differ. Some think that other members states will play the EU club game: You scratch my back and I will give you something in the future. Others think the member states will take a stronger line and threaten Ireland with isolation within the EU club. 

Either way, Varadkar’s move towards Johnson in recent weeks has spooked EU officials. Imagine being a fly on the wall at that meeting of EU leaders in Brussels on Friday.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet members of the Democratic Unionist Party (the Northern Irish party that propped up his government until recently) to discuss Brexit proposals within the next few hours, according to Britain’s PA news agency, making it the third time in days.

“I would certainly expect there to be ongoing dialogue between the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister’s team and the DUP throughout the course of today,” Johnson’s spokesman said, according to PA.

Johnson desperately needs the DUP on side in order for his deal to stand a chance.

The meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Conservative Cabinet members has been brought forward to 2:30 p.m. (9:30 a.m. ET), a Downing Street spokesman told CNN.

Johnson was originally expected to update his Cabinet on negotiations at around 4 p.m. (11 a.m. ET).

Downing Street continues to reiterate that discussions overnight were “constructive but there remains still work to do,” according to Britain’s PA news agency.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson during his first Cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street on July 25, 2019.

If media reports are to be believed, a Brexit deal is tantalizingly close. EU and UK negotiators might have missed Tuesday’s midnight deadline to agree on a legal text, but they are still hammering away and trying to get something sorted ahead of Thursday’s EU Council summit. 

If that happens, Boris Johnson will be able to claim a huge victory. He was told that there was no chance the EU would reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, the formal name for Theresa May’s Brexit deal, nor that the EU would allow Johnson to scrap key elements of it. 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

But, he shouldn’t celebrate for too long. Getting a deal with the EU Commission is the easy part.

Cast your mind back to last November, and you’ll remember Theresa May celebrating her Brexit deal being agreed by her Cabinet as the UK geared up to finally leave the EU – then all hell broke loose. 

Her Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab resigned over the deal. Her Northern Irish allies, the DUP, rendered the deal dead on arrival. And large parts of her own Conservative Party were so angry they tried to remove her as Prime Minister.

If the last three years have taught us anything, it’s that there is no version of Brexit that pleases everyone. Brussels wants legal assurances that the UK won’t undercut Europe on regulations or damage the integrity of its single market. Brexiteers want Britain to be an independent trading nation, free to do as it pleases. Which leaves any PM with a choice: gun for a deal that no side loves but can stomach, or give one side everything it wants.

Boris Johnson might soon regret giving Theresa May such a hard time in office. If he doesn’t strike the right balance in getting a deal, he will learn the hard way that no one likes the thought of being sold out on Brexit.