The battle for control of the House of Representatives will come down to a few dozen of the most competitive races, and the parties and their allies are honing in on those battleground districts, booking tens of millions worth of ad time over the coming weeks.
These top battleground districts are spread across the country. But a few states, like California and New York – which typically see little competitive action at the presidential or senate level – are home to buckets of key races that could be decisive. On the frontlines are several freshman GOP members, many facing rematches of extremely close 2022 contests.
Five districts from California and three from New York populate the list of the 20 House races with the most ad buys remaining between this week and Election Day, while a fourth New York district makes the top 30.
Here’s a snapshot of some of the key races in California and New York:
California: Top California House races feature several freshman or second-term GOP incumbents, multiple rematches, and an open seat race in a competitive district formerly held for Democrats by Katie Porter, who left to unsuccessfully run in the Senate primary earlier this year.
Voters in the 22nd District are set to see $16.9 million worth of advertising as GOP Rep. David Valadao looks to fend off repeat challenger Rudy Salas, and Republicans have more future ad bookings there, about $10.2 million to $6.7 million. The parties are placing similar bets on the 27th District, where another Republican, Rep. Mike Garcia, is seeking reelection, and Republicans have about $10.1 million booked here, while Democrats have $6 million reserved.
New York: In New York, a trio of freshmen Republican incumbents are also on the frontline of their party’s effort to retain its slim House majority. Rep. Marc Molinaro in the 19th District, Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th District, and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th District are all among the 20 races set to see the most ad spending through Election Day.
In the 19th, Molinaro’s district, Republicans have about $10.3 million booked, while Democrats have about $8.9 million reserved, hoping to lift challenger Josh Riley after his extremely narrow loss to Molinaro in 2022. It’s currently ranked third overall among House races set to see the most ad spending through Election Day.