Tug of War

The phrase limited operation only means so much in a war zone for the people living in it. The death and destruction doesn't feel limited. Take what's happening in Rafah right now. Israel says it's carrying out targeted raids in the eastern part of the city, working to eliminate Hamas militants and infrastructure. But what that looks like in practice seems awfully similar to what's been happening throughout the whole of Gaza for the last seven months.

The blast is so close to the Kuwait Hospital in central Rafah that the victims arrive on foot in the arms of those who rushed them out of the rubble. So many of the victims are children crying out for their parents. Others are silent, unresponsive, as the doctors desperately try to save them.

There are less than three fully functioning hospitals in Rafah right now, where roughly a million Palestinians are either sheltering or figuring out where to flee to the hospitals.

Doctors are now setting up a field hospital further west, but with no intensive care unit and only a third of the capacity, there is only so much they can do.

Imagine what a major operation would look like. It seems President Joe Biden has done just that, because on Wednesday, he told CNN in an exclusive interview that if Israel pushes further, more U.S. bombs won't be going with them.

If they go into Rafah, I'm not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah and deal with the said deal with that problem

Today, what finally pushed the Biden administration right up to its red line, and what it means for its fraying relationship with its biggest ally in the Middle East. From CNN. This is Tug of War. I'm David Rind.

CNN's Kylie Atwood is here. She's at the State Department right now. So, Kylie, our colleague Erin Burnett sat down for an exclusive interview with President Biden the other day. And Biden made news, as they say in our business. So what did he say?

He did indeed. He said, for the first time in just a very clear way, that the U.S. that he's going to make the decision to stop sending U.S. weaponry to Israel if it launches a major operation in Rafah. So if Israel goes into Rafah population centers.

If they going to Rafah, I'm not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, deal with the cities to deal with that problem.

And previously he had, you know, said that a Rafah invasion would be a red line for him. But he wasn't so explicit about the consequences like he was in this conversation.

It's just wrong. We're not going to we're not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells used that have been used.

Artillery shells as well.

Yeah. Artillery shells.

So just to understand what they're doing right now in Rafah, is that not going into Rafah as as you don't.

They haven't gone into the population centers. But they did this right on the border. And it's causing problems with right now in terms of with Egypt, which I've worked very hard to make sure we have a relationship and help. But I've made it clear to be in the War Cabinet, they're not going to get our support. If in fact, they go to these population centers. We're not walking away from Israel's security work, nor Israel's ability to wage war in those areas.

So it's not over your red line yet?

Not yet.

But he also said that defensive shipments of weapons, so defensive weapons being weapons that go to building up Israel's Iron Dome would still continue on. That's significant because, it's, you know, it backs up his claim that the U.S. commitment to Israel security remains ironclad, which he consistently says. And then the final bit of this, is that he said that American bombs. So these, 2,000 pound bombs that the US has previously sent to Israel have been used to kill civilians.

And civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers.

And it's just striking to hear the US president admit that U.S. weaponry has been used in a way that's not just, you know, going after the Hamas terrorists, but also having those repercussions of killing innocent Palestinian people. Yeah, I.

Was going to say it's not necessarily surprising that that's the case, just based on how wide Israel's bombing campaign has been. But to hear a president admit that, like you say, it's pretty wild.

Yeah. And I think it's worth it's worth noting that those specific bombs are the ones that for the first time this week, the Biden administration went after and put a pause on. So there was a shipment of them that were supposed to go to Israel late last week. Earlier this week, and for the first time, the U.S. as exerting its leverage. You know, the U.S. provides Israel with more than 60% of its military weaponry and saying, we are putting a hold on those weapons. And the Secretary of Defense explicitly said it's because of the events unfolding in Rafah right now. And while Israel hasn't gone forward with an all out, you know, full scale invasion into Rafah, they are already starting, some incursion in the eastern part of Rafah. And the US is concerned seeing them do that.

Yeah. I mean, it's like they're trying to walk this line here is saying that we're still going to stand by you if you're attacked, but you can't go any further here because I've been trying to ask on the show, like, what would the material changes actually be if this happens? And it seems like we're starting to get some kind of answer. So what is the reaction been in Israel to this?

Pissed. Are you allowed to say that on a podcast? Yes. They are incredibly, incredibly mad. On one hand, you know, they're coming now and doubling down on their commitment to completely dismantle Hamas and their argument for, you know, the last few months here has been you have to go into Rafah in order to actually take out Hamas. They are also, however, making it personal. You have, members of, the Israeli government of the National Security Minister, Ben Garver, writing on Twitter that Hamas hearts Biden. So they're not just generally defending what they view as the necessary strategy here, but they're coming out and pretty aggressively targeting Biden for making this decision.

And on the home front, as well, you know, lawmakers. And both parties have kind of taken issue with various parts of how Biden is going about this.

Indeed. Yeah. And I it's not clear that what he said yesterday is going to make either side incredibly happy.

This is the message to our allies that, you know, if it's politically inconvenient for the president to send you arms, then, you know, sorry, you're on your own. I mean, this is why they're under attack. I mean, it's just unbelievable to me.

You have Republicans who are already seizing on it. And, you know, saying that Biden is effectively no longer upholding his commitment to Israel's security.

I, need to know more about the president's proposal.

So do you support it yet?

Well, I need to know more about the proposal.

And then you have Democrats, you know, who have been calling on him to, condition some aid, to hold back some some military assistance. I should say, for a while now, who I think viewed as a good thing. But

They want more.

Exactly, exactly.

We'll be right back.

This is Tug of War. I'm talking with CNN's Kylie Atwood.

I want to go back to something President Biden said in that interview. Like we talked about him admitting that U.S. bombs have killed civilians, because I've been hearing a lot about this report as well that's coming from the Biden administration about how Israel is conducting this war. So what should we know about this report?

Yeah. So this report, just to kind of give you some context as to its origin story. It was a report that's required by a national security memorandum that was signed by President Biden earlier this year. And the reason that he even signed this memorandum is because Democrats had been urging the administration to put out a report to be a little bit, more holistic in terms of studying Israel's tactics in this war. And if they are, in fact, upholding international humanitarian law while they are conducting, the war while they're going after Hamas, there's another part of the report that also has to say if Israel has been enabling or standing in the way of humanitarian support getting into Gaza. And so that's a key determination, too, because we know there have been troubles along the way, and the U.S. has said Israel is doing more and more, but then, you know, they do less and less. And that's why the report is required. Now, the State Department is the one who's putting together that report. You know, they they have to get assurances from Israel as to their commitment, saying that they have been upholding international humanitarian law. Then the Secretary of State has to make a determination as to if those assurances are both credible and reliable. And that's the key part here, because you have Democrats on the Hill saying the Secretary of state can't just sign off and say, they said, that they're upholding international humanitarian law, therefore they are they're saying we want to make sure that the State Department is getting evidence, is getting descriptions, is, you know, really getting the full story here to make sure that we're probing, these specific incidents.

And not just taking their word for.

Exactly. So that that report was was actually due on Wednesday of this week. It hasn't gone up, to Congress yet. We're told that it's slightly delayed. Might come, you know, later this week. Might come earlier next week. So we're really watching to see, you know, when that comes out.

Well, the timing of this is obviously significant with what's going on in Arafat and then what President Biden said to Erin Burnett. So game this out for me. If the administration comes out and says, you know, yes, they did violate international law or, you know, we don't believe what they're saying here. Like what happens next? Like, how does the relationship go forward then?

Yeah, it's a really, great question, because it could put an immense amount of pressure on this administration to have to further change its policy when it comes to providing Israel with the consistent weaponry that we have then. But this report, in and of itself doesn't require a mandate to change the policy, but it's the pressure that it could put on the Biden administration, to potentially have to make changes. That will be the key factor to watch here.

Yeah. If you already have Israeli government officials tweeting at President Biden for something he hasn't even really done yet, like if this comes out and it's scathing, then that's it's going to be awkward, to say the least.

To say the least. Yeah.

Well, thanks for explaining it for us, Kylie, appreciate it.

Thanks, David.

Just a quick note about our show. Starting next week, we're going to put out one episode a week on Wednesdays, so you'll have a show in your feed next Wednesday and the Wednesday after that, and so on. And of course, in between you can always get the very latest on the conflict over at CNN.com or by following the CNN Five Things podcast wherever you listen.

Tug of War is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producer is Haley Thomas. Dan Dzula is our technical director. And Steve Licktieg is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, Jon Dianora, Leni Steinhardt, Jamus Andrest, Nicole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson and Katie Hinman. We'll be back next week. Talk to you then.