Striking workers will take at least a 44,000-job bite out of the October jobs report, according to new data released Friday.
That’s the biggest monthly employment knock in a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest strike report.
The largest chunk of that total comes from the 33,000 striking machinists at Boeing. However, while the massive number of idle machinists and the ripple effects of two major hurricanes are expected to temporarily distort what’s been a solid pace of employment growth, the final jobs report before the election isn’t expected to be as dour as once thought, economists say.
“We now no longer see a negative report in the cards for October,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist and principal at RSM US, told CNN Friday.
“Our model [excluding] strike and hurricane and weather distortions would have told us 200,000” job gains for October, Brusuelas said. “So, our forecast is for a 120,000 increase in total employment, which is fine on its own. But it will likely understate the true pace of labor creation in the economy.”
In addition to the workers listed on strike, Brusuelas anticipates an additional subtraction of 5,000 to 7,000 jobs from companies in Washington and Oregon who work closely with Boeing. A separate Boeing-specific layoff plan to cut 10% of its workforce, or 17,000 jobs, was announced October 11 and will not impact the upcoming jobs report, Brusuelas said.
A little over two weeks ago, as the Southeast was reeling from the destruction laid by Hurricane Helene, Florida was bracing for even worse from the monstrous Hurricane Milton. Although Milton’s impact wasn’t as catastrophic as initially feared, the one-two punch of Helene and Milton was indeed truly devastating to the Southeast, resulting in losses of lives and billions of dollars in damage.
The broader impacts to the US economy were expected to be short-lived. Storms and other one-time events can typically ding GDP before delivering a similar, if not bigger, rebound in the following quarter. However, when it comes to economic data — which is being watched like a hawk by the Federal Reserve in its years-long inflation fight and by the general public in advance of a tight and contentious election — the timing of the strikes and hurricanes couldn’t be worse.
However, the resilience seen after the late-September landfall of Helene — as well as the on-the-ground assistance and direct payments — meant that people and businesses were able to get back to work sooner than anticipated, Brusuelas said. The BLS’ reference period for the jobs report is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
This story has been updated with additional developments and context.
