Opinion: What Trump is looking for in a VP

Editor’s Note: Julian Zelizer, a CNN political analyst, is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of 25 books, including the forthcoming book, “Our Nation at Risk: Election Integrity as a National Security Issue.” Follow him on Twitter @julianzelizer. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

As President Joe Biden continues to face calls from Democrats to withdraw from the 2024 race, Republicans are preparing for their national convention next week.

The biggest outstanding question is who former President Donald Trump will select as his vice president. In Trumpian fashion, he has teased the possibilities on the campaign trail in an attempt to generate as much anticipation as possible, even going so far as to compare it to the reality show “The Apprentice,” which he once hosted.

It is foolhardy to predict who Trump will select. If we know anything, it is that Trump loves to be unpredictable, and there is always a real possibility he will turn to a running mate nobody has even considered.

Initially, there were rumors that Trump was going to be thinking outside of the conventional Republican bench. With an eye toward broadening the Republican coalition, Trump could be considering Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a Black American who is considered one of the most promising voices for the future of the GOP. With polls showing that Trump remains largely unpopular among Latino and Black voters despite faring better among these groups than he did when he left office, Trump could decide on Scott as a way to help strengthen his standing among constituencies that have traditionally gone to the Democrats.

But in recent weeks, the conversation has shifted to three others. As of now, the top choices seem to include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who may be this election’s version of former Vice President Mike Pence —  a White male conservative who won’t take up too much air space. Burgum can play to a broad swath of the GOP in the Trump era and compensate for the former president’s volatility and unpredictability.

Then there is Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the television-friendly White male populist who has made a career speaking about and appealing to working-class voters whose social and cultural concerns are often stronger than the economic considerations that would make them sympathetic to Democrats. Trump has already made these voters a core part of his coalition, so Vance would merely strengthen his position, rather than broaden his appeal.

There’s also Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who could theoretically help Trump win over Latinos — a voting bloc that could tip the scales in Trump’s favor in key states such as Pennsylvania. Rubio has strong roots within the mainstream GOP, particularly as an internationalist who can counterbalance some of Trump’s America First platform. Of all the possibilities, Rubio poses the greatest complications since the 12th Amendment prohibits electors from a state from voting for a president and vice president who both reside in that same state. Since Trump decamped to Mar-a-Lago and declared himself a resident of Florida in 2020, Rubio would have to move if the ticket wanted to secure all of the Sunshine State’s valuable 30 electoral votes.

Trump may also defy conventional wisdom, deciding against balancing the ticket, widening his appeal or even drumming up drama. After all, Biden’s weak performance during the June 27 debate left Trump in an even stronger position than before. As a result, he may rely on one key metric: whether that person will let Trump soak up the limelight without drawing too much attention to himself. It’s unlikely Trump will want anyone who might try to challenge his position as the dominant voice of the party.

Just as he understood and stoked the deep polarization of American politics, Trump understands another fundamental truth: Vice presidential candidates don’t tend to determine the outcome of elections. Although pundits (myself included) love to weigh up all the different contenders, it is difficult to think of a VP pick who drastically changed the results — even when President George H.W. Bush’s second in command, Dan Quayle, misspelled “potato” at a six-grade spelling bee in 1992. The only recent exception might have been Sen. John McCain’s 2008 running mate, Sarah Palin, although the recession and then-President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings contributed more to the Republican nominee’s loss.

Ultimately, Trump is no doubt looking for someone who will be totally loyal, someone who will go on television and say whatever is necessary to say, and someone who will not draw the public’s attention away from him. Trump certainly doesn’t feel the need to lean on anyone else to sell his populist and dystopian vision of America, given his own track record, love of political combat and ability to single-handedly launch devastating attacks against his political enemies. Tag team matches don’t interest him.

While reading Trump’s mind is an impossible task, this calculus suggests that he could be leaning toward Burgum or another candidate like him.

Trump’s decision in 2016 is also illuminating. When he was considering picking Newt Gingrich as his vice president in 2016, the former House speaker and Georgia congressman went on Fox News soon after meeting with the campaign team and acknowledged to host Sean Hannity why he would not be a good pick. “Look, in many ways Donald Trump is like a pirate. He’s outside the normal system, he gets things done, he’s bold, he’s actually like a figure out of a movie. In a lot of ways, my entire career has been a little bit like a pirate.” The issue, Gingrich said, was whether Trump really wanted a “two-pirate ticket.” The answer was no. Trump went with the low-voltage Pence.

It’s likely Trump is thinking the same way this time around. And regardless of who he names as his running mate, one thing is for sure — as the GOP prepares to meet next week, it is and will continue to be all about Trump.