Western intelligence believes Russia is seeking to exploit what it sees as a “window of opportunity” to further step up air and ground attacks on Ukraine to take advantage of the time it will take new weapons and ammunition from the newly passed US military aid package to arrive in significant quantities, three officials with direct knowledge of the latest assessments told CNN.
The officials said there will be a lag time between the approval of the funds and the arrival of the majority of the assistance that will make a significant difference on the frontlines, a delay which they believe Russia will seek to exploit.
Overnight on Wednesday, Russia unleashed a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities say Russia fired more than 50 missiles and 20 drones, targeting energy infrastructure around the country. Ukraine’s largest power company said this was the fifth time Russia has attacked its facilities in the last six weeks.
“They are trying to cause as many suffering to Ukrainian people as possible now in order to take advantage of and destroy Ukrainian moral,” Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko told CNN on Wednesday.
The months-long delay in approval of the funding was resolved last month when Republican Speaker Mike Johnson defied opposition from the right of his party to bring a major security package that paired Ukraine funding with aid for Israel and Taiwan up for a vote.
But months of inaction has resulted in real costs for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield in both territory and casualties, these officials say. Russian forces are expected to attempt to make further progress and consolidate earlier gains, before this window of opportunity closes.
Western and Ukrainian officials view the near-term threat of stepped-up attacks as tied to Russian plans for a larger offensive early this summer. US and Ukrainian officials remain concerned about a further partial mobilization by Russia to send more manpower to the frontlines, as Ukraine is struggling with its own manpower shortage.
As for Ukrainian prospects during the coming weeks, even with the arrival of new assistance, one US military official told CNN, “It is hold the line at best.”
“With the level of supply, it will be very hard for us to regain in any territory,” Goncharenko agreed. “So it’s more about stabilizing. It’s more about winning the time, but not winning the war. So we need more support and we hope, or other countries will follow the US example.”
CNN reported recently that Russian forces have used an “artillery drought” plaguing Ukrainian forces to push forward on the eastern front near Avdiivka, carrying out the largest Russian advance since the early months of the war. Moscow’s progress has prompted warnings from senior Ukrainian military officials of a possible threat to Kyiv’s supply lines and hubs in the east, which are now perilously close to being in range of superior Russian firepower.
In recent weeks, Russia has thrown vast resources at weak Ukrainian defenses across the eastern frontlines, pushing toward three key points: the vital military hub of Pokrovsk, west of Avdiivka; the strategic heights of Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut; and Kurakhove in the southeast.
