The latest on Russia’s war in Ukraine

Russia’s launch of a new medium-range ballistic missile on Thursday was a response to the “reckless decisions” of Western countries in supplying weapons to Kyiv, according to the Kremlin.

He added that Moscow “would prefer” if Washington listened to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning at the St. Petersburg United Cultures Forum in September, when he cautioned Kyiv’s allies against allowing their weapons to be used against Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the St. Petersburg International United Cultures Forum in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on September 12.

In September, Putin was asked to comment on the possibility of the United States granting Ukraine permission to use American missiles deep inside his country. He replied: “If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement – it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine.”

US President Joe Biden greenlit Kyiv’s use of long-range American missiles on Sunday.

Peskov said Friday that Russia has “no contacts with the current administration” in the US, but reiterated that Moscow warned Washington before the new missile launch via the National Nuclear Risk Reduction Center system.

Lieutenant General Robert Andrew Magowan arrives at an inquest at Winchester Coroners Court, England, on March 31, 2023.

Britain’s armed forces would be ready to fight Russia “tonight” if Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded another eastern European country, according to a top UK military official.

Remember: Magowan’s comments to the scheduled committee came shortly after reports that Russia had launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile during a Thursday morning attack on Dnipro, Ukraine.

Later in the day, Putin said in a televised statement that the missile was a new, non-nuclear ballistic missile with medium range.

Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow, Russia, on April 28, 2022.

Russia is thought to have supplied its ally North Korea with over a million barrels of oil since March, analysis by the Open Source Center (OSC) and BBC News has found.

The OSC, a UK-based non-profit organization, analyzed hundreds of satellite images over an eight-month period. They showed dozens of North Korean tankers traveling between the Russian port of Vostochny and North Korean facilities in journeys made over 40 times, it said.

The first documented oil transfer took place on March 7, the OSC report said, months after it emerged that Pyongyang was helping to supply Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Some context: The oil deliveries would violate UN sanctions, which prohibit large-scale transfers of petroleum to the isolated state.

The revelation also highlights the growing alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang, as North Korean soldiers join Russian forces on the battlefield. An estimated 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.

A US official told CNN earlier this month that Russia has amassed a large force of tens of thousands to carry out an assault on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.

As well as sending troops, North Korea has been helping Russia in its war against Ukraine by supplying weaponry and shells.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses lawmakers during a parliamentary session in Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 16.

Ukraine’s parliament will not meet as scheduled on Friday due to the threat of missile strikes, according to lawmakers.

The parliament, called the Verkhovna Rada, was supposed to meet for an hour of questions to the government.

The threat comes a day after Russia launched a new non-nuclear ballistic missile with medium range on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday, a significant escalation in the war.

China has called for restraint in the aftermath of Moscow using a nuclear-capable ballistic missile in a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, and said all parties need to “cool down the situation.”

The strike came in response to Ukraine targeting Russia this week with longer-range missiles made in the US, UK and France.

The ministry also reiterated China’s public position on the conflict, saying “the crisis should be resolved through political means to avoid escalation of the situation.”

Some context: NATO has previously called China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, accusing Beijing of bolstering Russia’s defense sector with the export of dual-use goods. Beijing has denied supplying weaponry and maintains it keeps strict controls on such goods.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have deepened ties since Moscow’s invasion.

South Korea's National Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a meeting in Melbourne, Australia, on May 1.

Russia is believed to have given North Korea air-defense equipment and anti-air missiles in return for Pyongyang sending troops to fight Moscow’s war with Ukraine, South Korea’s national security adviser Shin Won-sik told local broadcasting network SBS on Friday.

The Russian supply package also included economic support and military spy satellite technology, Shin said.

Close to 11,000 North Korean soldiers are believed to have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, with some having already participated in battles against Ukraine, two South Korean lawmakers said on Wednesday, citing a briefing from Seoul’s spy agency.

South Korea’s Shin said that no additional troops had been sent to Russia.

A resident walks at the site of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, November 21.

Russia’s use of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday is the latest escalation in the Ukraine war.

It also marks a decisive, and potentially dangerous moment in Moscow’s conflict with the West.

The use of what Vladimir Putin said was a ballistic missile with multiple warheads in offensive combat is a clear departure from decades of the Cold War doctrine of deterrence.

Ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, known as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles,” or MIRVs, have never been used to strike on an enemy, experts say.

Ballistic missiles have been the underpinning of deterrence, offering what is known as “mutual assured destruction,” or MAD, in the nuclear age.

The thinking is, if even a few missiles survive a nuclear first strike, there will be enough firepower left in the opponent’s arsenal to wipe out several major cities of the aggressor. That should deter the aggressor from pushing the button on them in the first place.

In that vein, ballistic missiles were designed to stand sentinel over a future where nuclear arms would never again be fired in anger.

But analysts, including Kristensen, argue that MIRVed missiles may invite, rather than deter, a first strike.

The thinking there is that it’s easier to destroy the multiple warheads before they are launched than try to shoot them down as they are dropping at hypersonic speed on their targets.

Videos of Thursday’s Russian strike showed the multiple warheads falling at different angles on the target, and each warhead would need to be defeated with an anti-missile rocket, a daunting prospect even for the best air defense systems.

And while the warheads dropped on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday were not nuclear, their use in conventional combat operations is certain to raise new uncertainty in a world already on edge.

Importantly, Russia alerted the US to the use of the missile fired Thursday beforehand. But for even with that advanced warning, any further launches by Putin’s regime will now inevitably ratchet up fears across Europe, with many asking the question: Is this the nuclear one? And has deterrence just died?

Read the full analysis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin makes a televised address in Moscow, Russia, on November 21.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia had carried out a strike with a “ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead” with a medium range on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

The attack was in response to Ukraine’s use of US and British-French long-range weapons, Putin said. “Our missilemen called it ‘Oreshnik,’” he added, claiming Ukraine has “no means” to counter the new “Oreshnik” missiles.

The “experimental” Russian missile carried multiple warheads, according to two US officials and one Western official, in what experts said was likely the first time such a weapon had been used in war.

The United Kingdom’s Defense Intelligence has warned Ukraine’s front lines are “less stable” than at any point since the earliest stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than 1,000 days ago.

Here’s what else you need to know:

Putin’s warning to the West: “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond just as decisively and in kind,” the Russian leader said. He was referring to Ukraine’s use of US-made ATACMS missiles and of British-French Storm Shadow systems this week. The Pentagon responded by describing Putin’s remarks as “dangerous, reckless rhetoric.”

The US was notified: Russia warned the United States ahead of the launch of its missile through the National Nuclear Risk Reduction Center, the Kremlin and Pentagon said. “The warning was sent in a standing automatic mode 30 minutes before the launch,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

What to know about the weapon: Known as a Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV), the payload carries a series of warheads that can each target a specific location, allowing one ballistic missile to launch a larger attack. MIRVs were developed during the Cold War to permit the delivery of multiple nuclear warheads with a single launch. The Minuteman III, which is the US ICBM, is armed with MIRVs. The Russian missile was not armed with nuclear warheads, but it used a weapon designed for nuclear delivery to instead launch conventional weapons.

Kyiv’s reaction: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the new weapon “a clear and severe escalation in the scale and brutality of this war” as the country’s foreign ministry said Kyiv has “the full right under international law to hit any legitimate military targets in the territory of Russia” with long-range missiles. The United Nations described Russia’s use of a new ballistic missile as a “another concerning and worrying development.”