Theresa May faces Brexit deadlock

The twelve semi-nude protesters who stripped off in the House of Commons viewing gallery have been removed and arrested, allowing MPs taking part in the Brexit debate to get back to nitpicking the finer points of a customs union in peace.

The activists had glued themselves to the glass that separates the chamber from the public, in a cheeky stunt which drew the attention of several lawmakers.

While lawmakers debate indicative votes, they’re having to battle a fairly significant distraction.

About a dozen climate protesters stripped down and pressed themselves against the glass of the viewing gallery that overlooks the Commons. It’s an inventive way to make a point, and it’s received the attention of several MPs.

The climate group Extinction Rebellion said in a tweet that they were responsible. (Warning: some readers may find the photographs explicit.)

John Bercow, the Speaker, has asked MPs to press on.

The Speaker has selected four motions for MPs to cast their ballots on later, and they won’t make happy reading for the government. Two of them favor a so-called soft Brexit, one calls for a second referendum, and a fourth would give lawmakers a vote on revoking Article 50, the legal process by which the UK is leaving the EU.

There was some question over whether both Customs Union motions would be chosen. Motion C, the “pure” Customs Union plan, came the closest to securing a majority of MPs last week, losing by just six votes. But Motion D, which calls for membership of a Customs Union and the Single Market, has picked up plenty of buzz on Monday and has a real chance to succeed after Labour and the SNP said they’d back it.

Those advocating for a second referendum will be pleased to see Motion E get the go-ahead. That plan calls for any eventual Brexit deal to be put to a confirmatory referendum, against the option of remaining in the EU.

It’s a call Labour has backed in recent weeks, and could provide Theresa May a way of getting her Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Commons.

Motion G is a new twist on a plan that was put forward last week. It gives MPs the chance to cancel Brexit – but for over-excited Remainers, there’s a catch.

In the event that the EU denies the UK a longer Brexit delay on April 10, the motion allows for Parliament to have an eleventh-hour vote between leaving with no deal or revoking Article 50. If you’ve been enjoying the soap opera that is Brexit, that would provide quite the series finale.

What was rejected: A plan to amend the Withdrawal Agreement to remove the controversial backstop – which has been explicitly ruled out by both the EU and Theresa May – wasn’t taken forward. The Speaker noted that the European Union has rejected this course of action.

Also rejected as a motion that called for a no-deal Brexit in the event that a Withdrawal Agreement isn’t passed by April 12. The Speaker explained that he rejected that plan because it essentially sets out the legal default option, and noted that it was overwhelmingly rejected last week.

A motion calling for a so-called People’s Vote if a no-deal Brexit became likely was also ruled out, meaning that the hopes of those wanting to see a second referendum will hinge on Motion E alone.

The final rejected plan called for the UK to enter the European Economic Area and indicate an intention to rejoin the European Free Trade Association after Brexit.

John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, has just announced the indicative vote motions that MPs will be voting on tonight.

He’s chosen four from a list of eight. They are:

Motion C, Customs Union – This motion calls on the government to ensure that the Brexit plan includes a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU.

Motion D, Common Market 2.0 – This proposal wants the Political Declaration – which covers the future relationship between the UK and the EU – to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU.

Motion E, Confirmatory public vote – Parliament would not be allowed to ratify any Brexit deal until it has been confirmed by a referendum.

Motion G, Parliamentary Supremacy – This motion has a series of actions. If the no withdrawal agreement has been agreed by noon on April 10, the UK must seek a delay to Brexit from the bloc. If the EU does not agree to a further extension, then government must allow MPs to choose between leaving without a real and revoking Article 50, which would scrap the Brexit process altogether.

Conservative MP and hardline Brexiteer Richard Drax has apologized in the Commons for supporting Theresa May’s Brexit deal last week.

He confirmed he’ll be switching to oppose the deal if it’s put forward a fourth time – having switched to supporting it on Friday.

Drax also apologized to the DUP, who have been firm in their opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement, for his “wrong call.” He added that he will now return to supporting a no-deal Brexit.

“The Withdrawal Agreement as it stands must never ever see the light of day again,” Drax said. “Spring is here. Time for a new start for us all. Let’s take our country back in 11 days’ time and fulfil our honorable duty.”

While everyone is getting very excited at the increasing possibility of the alternative Brexit plan known as Common Market 2.0 receiving the support of both Labour and the Scottish Nationalists, let’s take a little look at the pros and cons of this plan.

Common Market 2.0 is a very soft Brexit, in which the UK formally leaves the EU but remains very closely aligned to it, through membership of the single market. The plan also calls for a customs arrangement between the UK and the EU that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The plan has advantages and disadvantages, depending on your perspective.

Under this plan, the UK would apply to join the European Free Trade Association, which would allow the UK to trade with the EU and other EFTA nations (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) on similar terms to now.

Via EFTA, the UK would also continue its membership of the European Economic Area, meaning it would retain access to the EU’s single market.

Under EFTA rules, the UK can still – in theory at least – strike its own trade deals while more or less maintaining trading ties with the EU. It will also result in minimal disruption to its world-class services industry.

The UK would also leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in all areas other than those which affect the EEA. Crucially for some Brexiteers, the UK could also leave the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. (Despite making up less than 0.05% of the UK’s economy, the fishing industry has played a huge part in the Brexit debate.)

But as a member of the single market, the UK would have to abide by the four freedoms of movement: Goods, services, capital and people. That last one is a problem for Brexiteers, as it means the UK would not have full control over the number of people coming through its borders. That’s also a huge issue for many in the Labour ranks.

The UK would also have to continue making huge contributions to the EU, something that Brexiteers promised would end.

And the unique customs arrangement envisioned by Common Market 2.0 is unprecedented among EFTA membership and contradictory to current EFTA rules.

So, there’s no guarantee that it could be achieved, meaning the Irish border question is not necessarily answered. While it looks a very clever plan, it runs into many of the same problems as every other plan.

While some MPs squabble over the order of today’s proceedings in the Commons, others are heading to Westminster Hall to hold a debate on the record-breaking petition calling on Britain to cancel Brexit altogether.

The petition, which calls on the government to revoke Article 50 and cancel the departure process, has been signed more than 6 million times - an unprecedented rate that caused Parliament’s petitions website to crash repeatedly.

MPs will also have the chance to debate two smaller petitions on Brexit. One, which calls for a second referendum, was signed by 160,000 people, and a second, which urges Parliament to “honour the referendum result,” has 165,000 signatures.

Juncker (left) and David Cameron at an EU summit in 2016.

Former British prime minister David Cameron blocked senior EU figures from taking part in the 2016 referendum campaign, the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said.

“We were forbidden from being present in any way in the referendum campaign by Mr. Cameron, who is one of the great destroyers of modern times,” Juncker said in a speech in Saarbrücken, Germany on Monday.

“Because he said the Commission is even less popular in the UK than it is in other EU member states. That’s quite a task to be less popular in the UK than anywhere else,” he added.

That meant the campaign was uninformed, Juncker suggested – and it’s coming back to bite Britain now.

“Nobody knows where we are at. We know what the British Parliament does not want – but we still do not know what it really wants,” Juncker added.

“Today is yet another Brexit day – the fourth vote, if I have counted correctly,” he said. In fact, even Juncker has lost count – including the three votes on May’s deal and two rounds of indicative votes, it’s actually the fifth big day for the Commons.

Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons.

Lawmakers are debating today’s business motion, which, if passed, will allow the House of Commons to hold indicative votes tonight.

That’s given Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, another chance to set out the government’s opposition to the indicative votes process. She told lawmakers:

She added: “The government will be listening carefully to Parliament today – but as I have explained, the approach to today’s business sets an extremely concerning precedent for our democracy,” she added.

Leadsom confirmed that the government will be opposing the business motion – but there’s no real danger of it failing to pass.

The main opposition Labour Party might have just broken the Brexit deadlock. Shadow Cabinet sources have told CNN that they’ve been told the party will be “whipping in support of Common Market 2.0.”

The plan would pave the way for a much softer Brexit than that preferred by many in Theresa May’s Conservative Party, as it retains strong economic ties to the EU.

It also has a strong nod to history. The UK joined what was then the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973 – and voted to remain a member in a 1975 referendum. The leader of the Conservative party, Margaret Thatcher, then in opposition, was an enthusiastic cheerleader for the bloc, which was much more of a free-trade area than a political union. At the time, it was widely known as the Common Market.

The Member of Parliament who has put forward Common Market 2.0, Nick Boles, happens to be a Conservative.

No doubt, the name of the plan was carefully chosen to appeal to Euroskeptic Conservatives, who A) have less of a problem with free trade than they do with loss of political sovereignty and B) a keen sense of political nostalgia.

Labour’s support could yet be a problem. It’s an open secret that any deal relying for success on Labour could split the Conservative Party. So while Common Market 2.0 might win the show tonight, it’s seems unlikely to be adopted as government policy.

It’s not just the Conservatives who are worried about cross-party unity: Labour sources are skeptical about doing anything that might ultimately help a Conservative plan pass. “Expect abstentions and votes against from Labour MPs,” another shadow cabinet source told CNN.

The developments, which came around 3 p.m. local time, have caused ripples of excitement in Westminster. But one caveat: Labour’s whipping operation could be generously described as fluid at the moment. As our shadow cabinet source put it: “You know this place and Brexit. Things are changing from hour to hour 😱.”

Labour's shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, and leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The opposition Labour Party will order its lawmakers to support the so-called Common Market 2.0 plan during tonight’s indicative votes, a source with knowledge of the decision has confirmed to CNN.

That gives the plan, put forward by Conservative rebel Nick Boles, a greater chance of getting across the line, as the Scottish National Party earlier confirmed it would also support the motion.

Boles seems optimistic about the news. It “now has a real chance of winning the majority that has eluded May,” he wrote on Twitter.

What this means: Labour encouraged its MPs to support the plan during last week’s indicative votes, but whipping their lawmakers to back it is a step up.

It increases the likelihood of Parliament coalescing behind a soft Brexit – but it also means a significant number of Labour backbenchers in Leave-supporting seats could rebel.

The Common Market 2.0 motion calls for the UK’s future relationship with the EU to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU.

A top Siemens executive has warned that chaos over Brexit is wrecking the United Kingdom’s reputation as a place to do business and turning it into a “laughing stock.”

“Enough is enough. We are all running out of patience,” Juergen Maier, the CEO of Siemens UK, told lawmakers in an open letter published Monday in Politico.

Maier said that continued uncertainty over Brexit has made it difficult to invest in the United Kingdom, where the global engineering giant employs 15,000 people and generates annual sales of roughly £5 billion ($6.6 billion).

The CEO said in the letter that he can “no longer defend” the actions of parliament to his board, “making it hard to win support for finely balanced investment decisions” that affect UK jobs and competitiveness.

Read more from CNN Business.

The customs union and second referendum motions are the two Brexit alternatives most likely to build support ahead of the second round of indicative voting in Westminster on Monday, says political commentator Robin Oakley, who adds the Common Market 2.0 option is also gaining momentum.

“For Theresa May, the options are absolutely horrifying almost whatever she does,” Oakley says. “The most likely one to get support is the customs union. But 170 of her MPs have written a letter to her over the weekend … saying they would rather have no deal.”

 Watch Oakley explain more about the corner May could get backed into below.

A Brexiteer Conservative MP has suggested he might not support Prime Minister Theresa May in the event that the opposition Labour Party called a vote of confidence in her government. Steve Baker, a member of the European Research Group, a prominent figure in the pro-Brexit European Research Group bloc in May’s Conservative party, said he might resign in order to vote against her.

Here’s what he told BBC Politics Live program:

Why that’s important: Theresa May has a razor-thin majority in Parliament, and even that depends on the 10 MPs of the Democratic Unionist Party. Every vote counts. If she lost even one or two members of her own party in a confidence vote, the government really could fall.

Parliament doesn’t usually sit during the Easter holidays, allowing lawmakers to spend time in their constituencies. It also gives MPs a little breathing space to deal with personal matters: Looking after children who are not in school or catching up with medical appointments, for example.

But the Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, has just informed her parliamentary colleagues that this will not be happening – at least for the first week of the recess.

In an email to MPs, Leadsom said that “the House rightly needs time to address our exit from the EU, and our constituents will expect Parliament to work flat out to deliver this as smoothly as possible”.

The news has not gone down well in Westminster: MPs are having to suddenly sort short-notice childcare plans and move around personal appointments. As one parliamentary staffer told me: “Everyone here has been working flat out since Christmas and it’s just relentlessly awful. Plus, the last time they cancelled recess they managed to achieve absolutely f*** all.”

Andrea Leadsom’s email to colleagues

Last week when UK lawmakers took control of parliamentary business, a proposal for a Customs Union with the EU after Brexit came within six votes of passing in the first round of indicative votes.

On Monday, the motion will go back before House again. But not all Members of Parliament are convinced. Conservative backbencher Daniel Kawczynski told CNN the alternative would make the EU subservient to Europe.

Kawczynski instead suggested that lawmakers need to back the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal deal – despite it previously being rejected three times.

“We’re going in the right direction. The first time [Theresa May put forward her Brexit deal] it suffered a huge, colossal defeat – the biggest that any government has suffered in history. The second time the majority was brought down, the third time it’s brought down, so now it’s down to 58,” Kawczynski, who is a member of the pro-Brexit European Research Group (ERG), explained.

“If those 30 odd Tory MPs had voted with the Prime Minister, this would have gone through last week… If these Tory MPs continue to vote against the prime minister, ironically they are the ones from the most euroskeptic caucus that are going to ensure that we either have another referendum… or a customs union, which is the softest form of Brexit.”

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, is calling on UK MPs to provide clarity when voting on alternatives to May’s Brexit deal on Monday.

Verhofstadt said in a tweet that “It is now five to midnight. Today MPs must find a compromise & stop this chaos.

House Speaker John Bercow.

Lost count of which Brexit vote this is and what MPs are voting on? Here’s a quick rundown to remind you.

What’s happening

UK lawmakers are set to hold a second round of “indicative votes” Monday on alternatives to Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

None of the eight alternative options secured a majority in the first round last Wednesday. However, a plan for the UK to remain in a customs union with the EU only failed by six votes. A proposal for a second referendum gained the most “yes” votes overall.

Some of those eight alternatives are returning today while some have been replaced with new options. Commons Speaker John Bercow will announce a selection shortly after the House resumes business.

When?

Debate begins at 3:30 p.m. (10:30 a.m. ET) with voting expected to get underway around 8:00 p.m. (3:00 p.m.).

What are the options?

Motion A, Unilateral right of exit from backstop – This proposes that the UK shall leave the European Union on May 22 with the Withdrawal Agreement amended to allow the UK unilaterally to exit the Northern Ireland backstop.

Motion B, No deal in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement – This alternative calls for support from MPs for a no-deal Brexit if the House has not backed May’s Withdrawal Agreement.

Motion C, Customs Union – This motion calls on the Government to ensure that the Brexit plan includes a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU.

Motion D, Common Market 2.0 – This proposal wants the Political Declaration – which covers the future relationship between the UK and the EU – to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU.

Motion E, Confirmatory public vote – Parliament would not be allowed to ratify any Brexit deal until it has been confirmed by a public poll.

Motion F, Public vote to prevent no deal – Calls for a second referendum on exiting the European Union, if a no-deal scenario appears likely.

Motion G, Parliamentary Supremacy – This motion has a series of actions. If the withdrawal agreement still does not have support by noon on April 10, the UK must seek a delay to Brexit from the bloc. If the EU does not agree to a further extension, then government must allow MPs to choose between a no-deal and revoking Article 50 and thus scrapping the Brexit process altogether.

Motion H, EFTA and EEA – The UK must enter the European Economic Area and indicate an intension to rejoin the European Free Trade Association.

What then?

If the indicative votes provide some clarity, the focus will move to the Prime Minister and her next move. May could conceivably ask Parliament to choose between her plan and the winner of the indicative votes. Though it’s unclear how that might work. May also left open the possibility of pursuing an alternative plan in her statement on Friday. So at this point, it’s anyone’s guess.

An EasyJet Airbus A320 commercial plane with registration HB-JXF landing at Geneva Airport on March 22.

EasyJet has dialed back its expectations for the European summer season, warning that continued uncertainty over Brexit is driving ticket prices lower.

The discount carrier said its preparations for the UK-EU divorce were on track, but economic uncertainty and confusion over Brexit were reducing demand for flights in the ultra-competitive market. It warned that the weakness would continue in the second half of its financial year to September 30. 

“We are seeing softness in both the United Kingdom and Europe, which we believe comes from macroeconomic uncertainty and many unanswered questions surrounding Brexit which are together driving weaker customer demand,” CEO Johan Lundgren said in a statement.

Read more on CNN Business.

Conservative Party Chief Whip Julian Smith is frustrated by his party's infighting over May's Brexit deal.

The lack of support for Theresa May’s Brexit deal among her ministers is the “worst example of ill-discipline in cabinet in British political history,” Conservative Party Chief Whip Julian Smith said in a BBC interview published on Monday. 

Smith admitted he is “knackered, dealing with colleagues 24/7,” and “frustrated” that lawmakers “don’t see the light as clearly as I do.”

Smith also courted controversy, by arguing that the government should have been more open about the consequences of the 2017 general election.

He said that after the Conservative Party lost their majority it was clear that “the parliamentary arithmetic would mean this would inevitably be a softer type of Brexit.”

As lawmakers in Westminster once again return to the Commons to try to find a solution to the Brexit impasse, Ireland’s deputy premier Simon Coveney has urged businesses in Ireland to focus on contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Elizabeth Truss arrives at the Houses of Parliament on Thursday.

Ahead of another series of votes in Parliament Monday, UK Treasury Secretary Liz Truss said while she believes Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal remains the “best option,” she also “doesn’t have any fear” of leaving the European Union without a deal. 

Speaking to the BBC’s Radio 4, Truss said she thinks it’s a “disgrace” that lawmakers – who have roundly rejected May’s deal three times – “refuse to follow through.”

Addressing the Parliamentary deadlock, Truss said the answer lies in “modifications” to May’s deal, though she did not specify what modifications she was referring to. 

The Cabinet Secretary insisted May’s deal remained the “most well thought through option,” adding that “quite a lot of the other ideas have been dreamt up on the back of an envelope.”

When asked about a customs union arrangement with the EU – one of the key options on the table on Monday – Truss said “if you look at parliamentary arithmetic” it’s “not clear” it “actually commands support” in Parliament, or that a softer Brexit is the way forward.

Asked about speculation over who the next Conservative Party Leader might be after Theresa May steps down, Truss responded “we spend far too much time talking about who should be leaders, and not enough time on the ideas.”

Pro-Brexit demonstrators hold up placards in central London on Friday after MPs rejected May's Withdrawal Agreement for a third time.

In 11 days, unless something changes this week, the UK will leave the European Union without a deal.

Over the next few days, politicians from Prime Minister Theresa May on down will scramble to get a deal through – either the one the PM has spent months trying to get approved by the House of Commons, only for it to be defeated three times, or a softer Brexit plan that is picking up support among lawmakers of all parties.

There is a strong chance that Parliament could vote for a softer Brexit, perhaps involving Britain staying in the EU single market; but there is equally a strong chance of a no deal.

With such high stakes, there are now deep concerns among Brexiteer lawmakers that their prize of leaving the EU might be slipping away.

And sure enough, Brexiteers are planning to blame everyone but themselves.

Holding out for a harder Brexit, or indeed a no deal, instead of voting for the Brexit deal on offer, has led to the possibility that the UK’s exit from Europe may not happen at all.

They have already lost the original date of Brexit – March 29 – but now a soft Brexit (which would still be a battle to implement) is more likely to gain support in the Commons than any other.

Later Monday, MPs will vote on a range of options to try to find out which Brexit outcome has the most support.

Read more analysis from Jane Merrick here.

Theresa May leaves church in her constituency on Sunday.

Just in case your head wasn’t buried in political gossip all weekend, here’s what might have passed you by:

Theresa May is reportedly planning to hold a fourth vote on her Brexit deal. May’s Withdrawal Agreement has already been crushed three times, but each defeat has been tighter than the last. She will still need to flip some hardline Conservative backbenchers and the 10 DUP lawmakers who prop up her minority government if she wants to get her plan over the line.

Is a general election on the horizon? The Prime Minister told MPs after they defeated her deal for a third time on Friday that she fears “we are reaching the limits of this process in this House.” That was taken by many as a hint that, should her deal fail again, she will call the second snap election in two years.

Pro-Brexit protesters take over Westminster: A rally in support of Brexit attracted thousands on Friday, amid a heavy police presence in the UK capital. Figures including Nigel Farage and far-right activist Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, also known as Tommy Robinson, spoke to enthusiastic crowds – before some protesters turned on journalists.

Pro-Brexit supporters at Parliament Square on Friday.

This was meant to be the UK’s first full week outside the European Union.

But after nearly three years of infighting, division and political paralysis, the deadlock over Brexit rumbles on.

This week is another crucial one in the process. With rumors of a looming general election, the prospect of yet another meaningful vote, and a series of indicative ballots in the House of Commons, things might be a lot clearer in a few days’ time. Then again – they might not.

Lawmakers will get the first opportunity to negotiate a way out of Britain’s deepening political crisis. Today they’ll hold a second round of indicative votes, hoping to coalesce behind a Brexit plan that could rival Theresa May’s and force the PM into a compromise.

Options that MPs could vote on will likely include a Customs Union plan and a second referendum – and while the ballots are not legally binding, a united show of support would be difficult for Downing Street to ignore.

Another round of indicative votes could take place on Wednesday, but reports suggest that Theresa May is also planning to find time this week for yet another so-called meaningful vote on her Withdrawal Agreement. That divorce deal has already failed in the Commons three times, by majorities of 230, 149 and 58.

And in case that wasn’t enough Westminster drama for one week, rumors also abound that May could call a snap general election to break the deadlock. The last time she tried that, in 2017, it backfired spectacularly – with May losing her majority in Parliament.