October 4, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

CIA Director Bill Burns talks to CBS in an interview aired on October 4.

Russian President Vladimir Putin can be “quite dangerous and reckless” if he is cornered, CIA Director Bill Burns told CBS in an interview.

He noted in particular that despite a pledge from China in February of a “friendship without limits,” Beijing has declined to offer military support that Putin has requested and “controlled their enthusiasm for Russia’s conduct of the war.”

Russia’s rising challenges have left Putin with fewer options, making him potentially more dangerous, Burns suggested.

“Putin cornered, Putin who feels his back is against the wall, can be quite dangerous and reckless,” Burns said.

People walk next to their cars while queuing to cross the border into Kazakhstan at the Mariinsky border crossing, Russia, on September 27

More than 200,000 Russian citizens have arrived in Kazakhstan since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his partial mobilization order, according to Kazakh Interior Minister Marat Akhmetzhanov.  

Out of the 200,000 arrivals, more than 147,000 have already left since Sept. 21, Akhmetzhanov told Kazakh state news agency Kazinform.  

On Monday, Akhmetzhanov said over 7,000 arrived and 11,000 left, according to Kazinform.  

He also said that 68 Russians had applied for Kazakh citizenship. 

Russian and Kazakhstan are neighbors that share a 7000 kilometer-long (4,350 miles) border. 

A man casts his ballot for a referendum at a polling station in Mariupol on September 27. The placard reads "Referendum. We are returning home. Join! Vote!".

Residents of the Ukrainian regions illegally annexed by Russia have one month to change their citizenship, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Yevgeny Ivanov told state news agency RIA Novosti on Tuesday.

“The same as it was with Crimea. Within a month they must decide, make a choice,” Ivanov said, adding that in the new territories, the issuance of documents will be accelerated.

According to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign into law on Tuesday the documents on the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions — the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The signing of the laws by Putin would complete the last step of the annexation process, based on the Russian legal system. The annexation is illegal under international law and Western governments have vowed to not recognize the regions as Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces have propelled through occupied territory in the country’s eastern and southern regions, putting pressure on Russian forces in Kherson and Luhansk.

Meanwhile, Russia’s parliament is formalizing the illegal annexation of four regions in Ukraine, which the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin is likely to sign into law on Tuesday.

Here are the latest developments:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky address the nation on October 3.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree formally ruling out the possibility of negotiations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The decree confirms “the impossibility of holding negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin,” according the the Ukrainian Presidency’s website.

It is dated last Friday, the day that Putin announced he would illegally annex the four partially-occupied Ukrainian territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

The move came in response to Putin’s attempt at annexation, the post said.

“It takes two parties to negotiate,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday in response to Kyiv’s decree.

He claimed that Russia had wanted to resolve matters “by peaceful diplomatic means” since before Moscow’s attempt at a full-scale invasion in February.

“Now we will either wait for a change in the position of the current president, or we will wait for the future president of Ukraine, who will change his position in the interests of the Ukrainian people,” Peskov added.

It comes as Russia’s parliament formalizes the illegal annexation, in violation of international law. The move follows so-called referendums in the four Ukrainian regions held by Russian-backed leaders, which are illegal under international law and have been denounced by Ukraine and Western leaders as “sham.”

Russian reservists are registered at a gathering point in the course of partial mobilization of troops in the town of Volzhsky in the Volgograd region, Russia, on September 28.

More than 200,000 people have joined the Russian Armed Forces as part of the “partial mobilization” of citizens for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, according Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Shoigu said the training of the new units will be conducted on special training grounds and training centers, Russian state outlet RIA Novosti reported Tuesday. Shoigu hasn’t provided additional details about the newly mobilized personnel.

Some context: In September, Shoigu said the country would summon 300,000 reservists, after President Vladimir Putin announced increased military conscription.

The move sparked heated protests and an exodus of military age men amid draft fears. Russia’s parliament also made amendments to the law on military service to toughen the punishment for violation of military service duties.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the signing ceremony with separatist leaders on the annexation of four Ukrainian regions at the Grand Kremlin Palace, on September 30, in Moscow, Russia.

The laws on the illegal annexation of four regions in Ukraine will “most likely” be signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, according to the Kremlin’s spokesperson. 

Earlier Tuesday, Russia’s upper house of parliament approved unanimously the illegal accession of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia’s lower house of parliament also voted unanimously for the four laws — one for each region — on Monday, according to Russia’s state-run TASS news agency.

The procedure was expected to be a formality, as Putin and his allies effectively control both branches of the Russian legislature.

Some context: Putin said during a ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday that the millions of people living in the four territories would be Russian citizens “forever”, as he announced the illegal annexation process in defiance of international law.

In recent weeks, Moscow-backed leaders in the four Ukrainian regions held so-called referendums on joining Russia. The ballots are illegal under international law and were dismissed by Ukraine and Western leaders as “sham.”

Representative from the executive body of the government of the Republic of Tyva Lyudmila Narusova (center) during a meeting of the Federation Council on May 29, 2019, in Russia, Moscow.

Before Tuesday’s vote in Russia’s upper house of parliament on the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian territories, a Federation Council senator flagged that not all areas are fully under Moscow’s control.

The Constitutional Court, which ruled that the incorporation of the four regions was in compliance with the Russian constitution, does not assess political matters or the line of contact on the ground, Senator Andrey Klishas, chair of the Federation Council committee on constitutional legislation, replied.

Klishas reiterated the Kremlin’s position that Russian authorities intervened to protect the “human rights” of the residents of the four regions. 

After the discussion at the Federation Council, Narusova still voted for the laws. The Federation Council unanimously approved the accession of the four Ukrainian regions.

In the Federation Council, Narusova represents the Russian republic of Tuva, in southern Siberia. She is the mother of Ksenia Sobchak, a controversial public figure and a TV host, who ran for the presidency in 2018.

Some context: The formalization process of the illegal annexation is in violation of international law. It follows so-called referendums held by Russian-backed leaders across the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in recent weeks. The ballots are illegal under international law and were condemned by Kyiv and its Western allies as “sham.”

Lawmakers of Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation listen to the national anthem while attending a session in Moscow, Russia, on October 4.

Russia’s upper house of parliament unanimously sanctioned the accession of four Ukrainian regions into Russia on Tuesday in violation of international law. 

The Federation Council passed the constitutional laws on the illegal annexation of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. 

The lower house, the State Duma, also voted unanimously to authorize the illegal annexation on Monday, Russia’s state-run TASS news agency reported.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies effectively control both branches of the Russian legislature, and the space for political dissent in Russia has shrunk in recent years.

The four accession documents — one for each of the regions — will now head to Putin’s desk.

According to the laws, residents of the new entities were recognized as Russian citizens starting on September 30, when the formal agreements of accession between the Russian Federation and the four regions were signed in the Kremlin’s St George’s Hall.

Following the results of so-called referendums, Putin made a formal speech at the ceremony on Friday, declaring that the millions of people living in the four regions would be Russian citizens “forever.”

Russian-backed leaders held votes across the four regions in recent weeks. The ballots are illegal under international law and were dismissed by Kyiv and Western leaders as a “sham.”

The residents of the new regions can acquire Russian citizenship by submitting applications and being sworn in as Russian citizens, according to TASS. 

According to the laws, the DPR and the LPR will retain their status as republics after joining Russia and Russian will be their official language. The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will also join Russia as constituent entities and will continue to be called “regions,” TASS reported.

The borders of the republics and regions will be the same as those that existed on the day of their creation and accession into Russia, and their borders with other countries will be regarded as Russia’s state borders, according to TASS.

The DPR and the LPR are joining Russia under the 2014 borders described in their “constitutions,” according to TASS. 

The movements in Russia’s parliament contradict the state of the war on the ground in Ukraine, where Kyiv has made sweeping gains in the east and the south of the country and forced Moscow to retreat from several positions in areas the Kremlin declared it is annexing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands during a meeting in Samarkand, on September 16.

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin “today’s era is not of war” last month, the West welcomed his comments as a sign the world’s largest democracy was finally coming off the fence about Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron praised Modi and the White House lauded what it called a “statement of principle.”

But the reality, analysts say, is less straightforward.

Rather than cutting economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizer – giving Putin a vital financial lifeline.

New Delhi has repeatedly abstained from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations – providing Moscow with a veneer of international legitimacy. And in August, India participated in Russia’s large-scale Vostok military exercises alongside China, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan — where Moscow paraded its vast arsenal.

Last week, India abstained from another UN draft resolution condemning Russia over its sham referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which have been used as a pretext by Moscow to illegally annex Ukrainian territory — significantly upping the stakes in the war.

India is “deeply disturbed” by the developments in Ukraine, said Ruchira Kamboj, New Delhi’s permanent representative to the UN, but stopped short of attributing blame and urged an “immediate ceasefire and resolution of the conflict.”

This apparent contradiction exemplifies India’s unique position on the war: verbally distancing itself from Russia, while continuing to maintain pivotal ties with Moscow.

Modi’s “stronger language to Putin” should be seen in the context of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, and the “hardships that was creating for other countries,” said Deepa Ollapally, research professor and director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.

Read the full analysis here.

Elon Musk drew backlash on Monday from Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his unsolicited advice on how to bring about “peace” amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of the country.

In a Twitter poll, Musk suggested a path to “Ukraine-Russia Peace” that included re-doing elections “under UN supervision” in the regions of the country recently annexed illegally by Russia. The land grab, covering nearly a fifth of Ukraine, followed referendums that have been widely dismissed as “shams” by much of the world.

The billionaire Tesla CEO also suggested making Crimea, a region Russia invaded and annexed from Ukraine in 2014, “formally part of Russia.” He added in bullet points: “Water supply to Crimea assured” and “Ukraine remains neutral.”

Ukraine and most of the world reject any implication of Russian sovereignty over the regions it has invaded, and Ukraine has vowed to take back its land.

“It started in Crimea, and it will end in Crimea, and this will be an effective revival of the international legal order,” Zelensky told the Crimea Platform summit in August. Zelensky has consistently maintained that Ukraine will not cede any of its territory to Russia.

A majority of respondents on Twitter voted “No” in response to Musk’s poll. In a follow-up tweet, Musk appeared to blame these results on a “bot attack.”

Read more here.

Destroyed Russian armored vehicles left behind by the Russian forces in Izium, Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 2.

Russian authorities have removed the commander of the country’s Western Military District (WMD), according to records from its Unified State Registry published Monday.

The Unified State Registry, which functions as a state record of all registered legal entitles, has listed Col. Gen. Roman Berdnikov as the new commander of the Western Military District. It comes as Russian forces have pulled out from many parts of eastern Ukraine. 

The WMD, based in western Russia, is one of five Russian military districts. It played a significant role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Berdnikov replaces Col. Gen. Alexander Zhuravlyov, who has also been a commander in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, where Russian forces suffered heavy losses in past weeks. Bednikov’s appointment comes on the heels of the Russian retreat from the strategic eastern city of Lyman, in the Donetsk region.

More on the former commander: Zhuravlyov, known for overseeing one of the most brutal chapters of Syria’s war, also oversaw a rocket artillery brigade, whom CNN identified launching cluster munitions attacks in residential districts of Kharkiv in late February, during the early days of the war.

Russian officials have criticized the country’s military leadership following the retreat in Lyman. Lawmaker and former army commander Andrei Gurulev said he could not explain this “surrender” from a military point of view, speaking on Soloviev Live, a pro-Kremlin TV channel on Saturday.

Berdnikov graduated from the Kyiv Suvorov Military School in 1991 and from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School in 1995.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has yet to confirm the leadership change at the Western Military District.

The European Union has summoned in a “coordinated manner” the Russian ambassadors in EU member states following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision last week to annex Ukrainian regions, an EU spokesperson told CNN Monday. 

Stano said the move aims to “convey strong condemnation of these actions” and demand the “immediate halt to steps undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and violating UN Charter and international law.”

The summoning started on Friday last week, according to Stano. The Russian ambassador to the EU was summoned in Brussels Monday afternoon, he added.

In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

Why this matters: The remarkable transparency essentially gives the US veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia and is meant to convince the administration that providing the critical weapons would not lead to strikes inside Russian territory, which the US fears would escalate the war and draw it directly into a conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At issue are the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, surface-to-surface missiles that can fly around 200 miles (300 kilometers) — about four times the distance of the rockets used by the HIMARS mobile systems the US began sending to Ukraine four months ago.

U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) fires a missile into the East Sea during a South Korea-U.S. joint missile drill on July 29, 2017 in East Coast, South Korea.

Despite Ukraine’s proposal, the Biden administration still has not approved the new long-range ATACMS weapons, and argues that Ukraine is doing well with the HIMARS systems it currently has. In fact on Wednesday the administration announced funding for 18 more HIMARS for Ukraine, bringing the total to over 30 US systems.

There are also concerns inside the administration that providing the longer-range ATACMS weapons would cross a red line in the eyes of Moscow, which would see the US becoming “a direct party to the conflict.”

But that red line is becoming murkier with Friday’s annexation of four Ukrainian territories by Russia. The US has stated that it will support the use of Western weapons inside those zones even if Russia now considers it part of its official territory.

Still, the idea of taking a more active role in discussions over Ukrainian targeting raises American fears of being seen as more involved than it would like.

After regaining the key eastern Ukrainian city of Lyman over the weekend, Ukrainian forces have continued their counteroffensive and pushed into the Luhansk region, according to pro-Russian officials and propagandists.

Russia controls nearly all of Ukraine’s Luhansk region; Ukrainian forces liberated the Luhansk village of Bilohorivka at the end of September.

Ukrainian forces have continued their offensive toward the Russian-occupied towns of Svatove and Kreminna, in the Luhansk region, a pro-Russian journalist, military blogger and analyst said.

Kyiv is now advancing into the Luhansk region, according to military representative for the so-called People’s Militia of the Luhansk People’s Republic.

“Now the Ukrainian media have begun to very actively share information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have crossed the administrative border of the LPR, and they are rejoicing,” Andrey Marochko said, quoted by the Luhansk Media Center.

“But in fact, there are no administrative borders for the military now, in fact, Ukrainian troops entered ‘the fire bag’ and are being actively destroyed by our troops.”

Members of the Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, attend a session to approve laws on annexing Ukraine's Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions into Russia, in Moscow, Russia, on October 3.

Russia’s legislature on Monday began the process of approving President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex four parts of Ukraine, despite the fact that the Kremlin is not in full control of those regions and has not settled upon the exact boundaries of the territories it is attempting to absorb.

Legislative approval of the annexation, which is illegal under international law, is expected to be a formality, although it will take a couple of days. Putin and his allies effectively control both branches of the Russian legislature, and the space for political dissent in Russia has shrunk in recent years.

But the maneuverings inside the ornate halls of the Kremlin stand in stark contrast to the facts on the ground in the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces have suffered a series of surprising defeats in eastern Ukraine, forcing them to retreat and abandon several positions in areas the Kremlin declares it is annexing. Much of the territory Moscow claims as its own in Donetsk region is under the control of Ukrainian forces, and the Kremlin appears unsure of the exact borders of the regions it plans to annex. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow needed to “continue consulting” with the local populations before establishing its borders.

Read more here.

With concerns growing that Vladimir Putin will escalate Russia’s war in Ukraine, the US is considering how to respond to a range of potential scenarios, including fears that Russians could use tactical nuclear weapons, according to three sources briefed on the latest intelligence.

The US has since the start of the conflict been developing contingency plans to respond, including to the possibility that Russia’s President could escalate via a step just short of a nuclear attack on Ukraine, through what one source described as a “nuclear display,” such as a potential military strike on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, or the detonation of a nuclear device at high-altitude or away from populated areas.

Officials caution the US has not detected preparations for a nuclear strike. However, experts view them as potential options the US must prepare for as Russia’s invasion falters and as Moscow annexes more Ukrainian territory.

US officials have also taken somber note of the Russian President’s repeated public threats to use nuclear weapons. In a televised address late last month, Putin said, “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.”

Read more:

A member of Ukraine's National Guard stands at a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river in the Donetsk region on October 1, 2022.

Related article US considering responses to possible Russian escalation in Ukraine, including its potential use of tactical nuclear weapons | CNN Politics

Ukrainian forces have made additional gains in the country’s south, pushing toward the occupied city of Kherson and capturing the town of Zolota Balka on the western bank of the Dnipro river, according to a regional official and pro-Russian military blogger.

The head of the Russian-appointed administration in Kherson, for his part, acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were advancing along the Dnipro river.

“What can I say, my friends?,” Kirill Stremousov said on Telegram. “The Nazi forces got through a little bit further but our defense is working.”

“We are repelling all the attacks and to be fair those who are panicking today on social media they have to take a pause. It’s not Kharkiv here, it’s not Lyman here. We are holding our defense lines.” 

Boris Rozhin, a Russian military blogger, said that Russian forces were trying to hold off Ukraine’s offensive.

“Artillery duels are going on between Zolota Balka and Dudchan,” said on Telegram. “Armed Forces of Ukraine are equipping strongholds in occupied positions.