October 3, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the signing ceremony with separatist leaders on the annexation of four Ukrainian regions at the Grand Kremlin Palace, on September 30, in Moscow, Russia.

With concerns growing that Vladimir Putin will escalate Russia’s war in Ukraine, the US is considering how to respond to a range of potential scenarios, including fears that Russians could use tactical nuclear weapons, according to three sources briefed on the latest intelligence.

The US has since the start of the conflict been developing contingency plans to respond, including to the possibility that Russia’s President could escalate via a step just short of a nuclear attack on Ukraine, through what one source described as a “nuclear display,” such as a potential military strike on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, or the detonation of a nuclear device at high-altitude or away from populated areas.

Officials caution the US has not detected preparations for a nuclear strike. However, experts view them as potential options the US must prepare for as Russia’s invasion falters and as Moscow annexes more Ukrainian territory.

US officials have also taken somber note of the Russian President’s repeated public threats to use nuclear weapons. In a televised address late last month, Putin said, “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.”

On Friday, at a ceremony in which he announced the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions, Putin said Russia would use “all available means” to defend the areas, adding that the US had “created a precedent” for nuclear attacks in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.

“Putin is capable of anything,” Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN. While noting there is no evidence yet of preparations for such an attack, Quigley added, “You have to take him seriously.”

The US is studying the range of potential scenarios in order to have contingency plans in place for how it and its partners would respond to any such attacks. The potential for a “nuclear display” is considered an option if Putin stops short of ordering a nuclear strike on Ukrainian forces or population centers, opting instead for what one official described as a “show of bravado.”

Ukrainian forces have made additional gains in the country’s south, pushing towards the occupied city of Kherson and capturing the town of Zolota Balka on the western bank of the Dnipro river, according to a regional official and pro-Russian military blogger.

The head of the Russian-appointed administration in Kherson, for his part, acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were advancing along the Dnipro river.

“What can I say, my friends?,” Kirill Stremousov said on Telegram. “The Nazi forces got through a little bit further but our defense is working.”

“We are repelling all the attacks and to be fair those who are panicking today on social media they have to take a pause. It’s not Kharkiv here, it’s not Lyman here. We are holding our defence lines.” 

Boris Rozhin, a Russian military blogger, said that Russian forces were trying to hold off Ukraine’s offensive.

“Artillery duels are going on between Zolota Balka and Dudchan,” said on Telegram. “Armed Forces of Ukraine are equipping strongholds in occupied positions.

The release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 27 is seen in this handout image provided by Swedish Coast Guard.

The Swedish Coast Guard said that one leak from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline had not stopped but instead grown larger in size, according to Swedish authorities.

Following a fly-over of the leak locations on Monday morning a leak from Nord Stream 1 was no longer visible and therefore could be said to have stopped, the Swedish Coast Guard said.

However, “the smaller one from Nord Stream 2 is instead slightly larger than yesterday” and measured around 30 metres in diameter, the coast guard said in a statement.

The coast guard added that it is taking “emergency” measures for a longer time than expected, due to the larger leak.

The coast guard’s announcement came after Russian state-owned energy supplier Gazprom earlier stated all leaks had stopped in both pipelines, but said it is still working to “reduce pressure in line B of the Nord Steam 2 gas pipeline.”

It is unclear if pressure in line B could lead to the larger leak seen by the coast guard.

The pipelines, which run under the Baltic Sea near Sweden and Denmark, were created to funnel gas from Russian into the European Union.

More background: When Swedish authorities first cited the leaks on Tuesday it prompted fears around European reliance on Russian energy, a problem that has only deepened since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February.

European leaders swiftly denounced the leaks, with European Union foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, saying the leaks were likely “the result of a deliberate act.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to them as “sabotage action.”

US President Joe Biden said the leaks were a “deiberate act of sabotage,” after it emerged that European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines likely caused by underwater explosions.

At the time it was unclear whether the ships had anything to do with the explosions, these sources and others said – adding that it was one of the many factors investigators would be probing.

CNN’s Allie Malloy, Maegan Vazquez, Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood contributed reporting.

After regaining the key eastern Ukrainian city of Lyman over the weekend, Ukrainian forces have continued their counteroffensive and pushed into the Luhansk region, according to pro-Russian officials and propagandists.

Russia controls nearly all of Ukraine’s Luhansk region; Ukrainian forces liberated the Luhansk village of Bilohorivka at the end of September.

Ukrainian forces have continued their offensive towards the Russian-occupied towns of Svatove and Kreminna, in the Luhansk region, a pro-Russian journalist, military blogger and analyst said.

“In the face of the threat to our grouping in the area of ​​the settlement of Borova, it was decided to withdraw it to the line of the Zherebets River, which was done tonight,” Yuriy Podolyaka wrote on Telegram.

“In the area of ​​Kreminna, the enemy is also not particularly active today, but the concentration of troops suggests that a new offensive in this direction (towards Svatove and Kreminna) should begin any day,” he said.

Kyiv is now advancing into the Luhansk region, according to military representative for the so-called People’s Militia of the Luhansk People’s Republic.

“Now the Ukrainian media have begun to very actively share information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have crossed the administrative border of the LPR, and they are rejoicing,” Andrey Marochko said, quoted by the Luhansk Media Center.

“But in fact, there are no administrative borders for the military now, in fact, Ukrainian troops entered ‘the fire bag’ and are being actively destroyed by our troops,” Marochko added.

Ukrainian troops pose for a photo in Lyman, Ukraine, in this picture released in social media October 1.

Russian troops in eastern Ukraine withdrew from the city of Lyman after facing a lack of manpower, poor communications and “mistakes” by commanding officers, according to a revealing report in a Russian pro-government tabloid.

“The risk of being encircled and the prospects of the humiliating captivity were too big, and the commanders made a decision to retreat,” the writer, who was embedded with Russian troops, wrote in Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Residents of Lyman who spoke with CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh said that Russian troops began retreating late on Friday – just as Russian President Vladimir Putin was celebrating his claimed annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, where Lyman is located. 

The author of the newspaper report said the Russian troops had described “all the usual stuff.” 

“No decent communication between different units. Nobody knows what is happening at the neighboring positions. When you ask for the artillery support through a convoluted system of reports, it takes time and our targets are long gone.”

The reason for the Russians’ retreat, too, was “typical,” the report said.

“Not enough soldiers, mistakes of the commanders when organizing the defense,” according to the tabloid account.

“The so-called ‘500’s’ – the contract soldiers who refuse to fight and leave the battlefield. Late arrival of the reserves played its role too as well as lack of coordination between units on the ground and lack of modern equipment when it comes to intelligence.”

Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared Russian diplomat Sergey Ryabokon a “persona non grata.” 

Ryabokon, the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy in Vilnius, has been given “five days to leave the country,” according to a press release published by the foreign ministry on Monday. 

Its reasoning was based on “recent actions and statements by Ryabokon” which “were incompatible with his diplomatic status,” and “regarded as an interference in the host state’s internal affairs and, therefore, violated the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.” 

“Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry also strongly protested against the Russian President’s decision of 30 September to illegally annex the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, parts of which were temporarily occupied by Russia,” the statement concluded. 

Lithuania has emerged a staunch ally of Kyiv since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Last week, the Lithuanian president alongside the leaders of eight other NATO countries issued a joint statement supporting Ukraine’s bid for membership of the defense alliance. They also called for increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a screen set at Red Square as he addresses a rally and a concert marking the annexation of four regions of Ukraine - Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - in central Moscow on September 30.

Moscow will “continue consulting” with the residents of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to establish the exact borders of the Ukrainian regions claimed to be annexed by Russia.

“As for the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (regions), we will continue consulting with the population of these regions,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, when asked to clarify the borders of the territories annexed by the Russian Federation.

In response to questions about what format these consultations will take place, Peskov said he “cannot answer this question at the moment,” but added it will depend on the will of the people living on those territories. He said that no new referendums are planned.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally signed a decree to annex nearly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory in blatant violation of international law, following so-called referendums held by Russian-backed officials in eastern and southern Ukraine on joining Russia. The votes are illegal under international law and have been dismissed by Ukraine and Western nations as “a sham.”

Part of the territory of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is currently under control of the Ukrainian military. Peskov declined a comment on whether Russia will consider this as its own land following the ceremony at the Kremlin’s St. George’s Hall on Friday.

Talking about the other two regions, Peskov reaffirmed that Russia recognized as part of its territory the entirety of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), within their borders of 2014.

On Sunday, the Constitutional Court of Russia recognized the treaties on the admission of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, the DPR and the LPR to the Russian Federation as legal. The treaties published by the government do not specify the exact borders of the new territories.

CN’s Joshua Berlinger, Anna Chernova and Tim Lister contributed reporting.

Kyiv has recaptured more territory in the eastern Donetsk region, shortly after liberating the key city of Lyman.

Russian forces are pursuing young men of conscription age in occupied areas of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials.

Here are the latest developments:

Service members of pro-Russian troops stand guard on a road in Mariupol in May.

Russian forces are carrying out “door-to-door” checks in occupied areas of Ukraine, looking for young men of conscription age, the Ukrainian military said on Monday.

Russian forces have also stepped up document checks at checkpoints, making it “as difficult as possible,” to leave the occupied areas, the statement added

Ukrainian officials have been warning for some time that Russia planned on using its claimed annexations as a pretext to draft Ukrainians in occupied areas to use as “cannon fodder.”

The Ukrainian military’s sudden and successful counter-attack in the Kharkiv region this month has left Russian forces controlling less Ukrainian land than they did after their first thrust into the country in February, 2022, according to a CNN analysis of exclusive data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia’s first massive push, which began on the night of Feb. 23, allowed it to secure or advance on one fifth of Ukrainian territory, or about 119,000 square kilometers (46,000 square miles) of the total 603,500 square kilometers Ukraine claims and considers “temporarily occupied,” the analysis shows.

Seven months after launching an invasion — one that Western officials thought would be over in days with an overrun Ukrainian capital — Russia controls roughly 3,000 square kilometers less land than it did in the first five days of the war, CNN found. (Unverified claims are excluded from the analysis.)

Read the data analysis:

Ukrainian troops pose for a photo in Lyman on October 1.

Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Torske near Lyman in the Donetsk region on Sunday, as they inch closer to taking back the Luhansk region, according to the Ukrainian military.

Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on national television that Ukrainian forces are hitting Russian military units in Luhansk’s city of Kreminna “with fire.”

Zelensky hails advances: Ukraine’s latest gains come after the key Donetsk city of Lyman was liberated by Ukrainian forces at the weekend.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Ukraine’s military successes were not limited to Lyman. In his nightly address to the nation, Zelensky said a substantial part of the war reports he receives are taken up with a growing list of recently liberated Ukrainian settlements.

Zelensky also praised the liberation of Arkhanhelske and Myroliubivka settlements in Kherson region by soldiers of Ukraine’s 129th brigade.

The ghostly emptiness of the streets of Lyman in eastern Ukraine belies this city’s strategic significance.

There are no signs of Russian troops at all on Sunday — few damaged Russian tanks, or Russian dead, or Russian prisoners. Members of the Ukrainian National Guard from the Dnipro-1 unit hover in small numbers on some streets.

The occasional rattle of gunfire, or thud of artillery, pierces the silence. A few locals emerge, riding bicycles, searching for food, bewildered about what is happening.

“One day I wear one cap, another day a different cap,” said one woman in tears, pretending to take off a hat.

CNN was among the first media outlets into the recently liberated city, arriving 30 minutes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Lyman completely cleared of Russians troops.

Ukrainian officials and troops had spoken repeatedly of large numbers of Moscow’s better units being trapped there. Yet on Sunday there were few signs of encirclement to be seen.

Some officials said Russian corpses had already been cleared away and prisoners removed. But locals offered another explanation: that Russian forces had left the city on Friday in an orderly fashion.

“They got on their tanks, and drove out,” said Tanya, riding her bicycle back to the bomb shelter, where she still spends the nights with 15 others.

Read the full story here.

National flags of NATO members are seen at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels on March 4.

The presidents of nine NATO countries from Central and Eastern Europe issued a joint statement Sunday supporting Ukraine’s bid for membership of the defense alliance as they called for increased military aid to Kyiv. 

The presidents of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Romania expressed their firm support for “the decision of the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit regarding the future membership of Ukraine in the Alliance.”

“We support Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s invasion, demand Russia to immediately withdraw from all the occupied territories and encourage all Allies to substantially increase their military aid to Ukraine,” the statement added. 

The statement noted that the leaders of these countries — which account for nearly a third of NATO’s members — “visited Kyiv during the war and witnessed with their own eyes the effects of Russian aggression.” 

The statement also called on “all those who commit crimes of aggression” to be brought to justice. 

Some context: A decision about Ukraine’s application for accelerated NATO membership must be agreed upon by all 30 members of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general, said Sunday. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Friday that Ukraine was applying “under an accelerated procedure” to become a NATO member.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks after a meeting near Ramstein-Miesenbach on September 8.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he believes Ukraine is “making progress,” in the Kherson region of the country as they continue to counter Russia’s invasion, adding there has been a “kind of change in the battlefield dynamics.”

Austin attributed the change to the skill of Ukrainian soldiers and their strategic use of weapons supplied by US and NATO allies, specifically their use of the high mobility air rocket systems, or HIMARS. He made the comments in an exclusive interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that aired Sunday on “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”

Austin said Ukrainian forces have used “technology like HIMARS” and employed it in the “right way” to “conduct attacks on things like logistical stores and command and control, that’s taking away — taken away significant capability from the Russians.”

In doing so, Ukrainians have “changed the dynamics, and it’s created an opportunity for the Ukrainians to maneuver,” he added.

When asked why the US has not supplied longer-range weapons that Ukrainians have asked for, Austin said he communicates with his Ukrainian counterpart, Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov, “routinely,” and believes the US has been “very effective in providing them those things that are very, very effective on a battlefield.”

Read more here.

Russian officials have criticized their military leadership following the retreat of Moscow’s forces from the strategic eastern city of Lyman, in the Donetsk region, underlining concerns the Kremlin could be eyeing nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

A Russian lawmaker and former army commander on Saturday told pro-Kremlin digital outlet Soloviev Live that he could not explain this “surrender” from a military point of view.

Using the Russian name for Lyman, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday that “troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines.”

Russian state media Russia-24 reported that Russia’s withdrawal was because “the enemy used both Western-made artillery and intelligence from North Atlantic alliance countries.”

The retreat marks Ukraine’s most significant gain since its successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.

Read more here.

Time is running out for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he knows it.

Meanwhile his bombast continues: announcing the annexation of Ukrainian territories on Friday, Putin declared Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will become part of Russia “forever.” He is rushing to claim a victory and cement slender gains and sue for peace, running a dangerous political tab, regardless of the fanfare in Moscow.

He is doing his best to hide it, but he is losing his war in Ukraine. The writing is on the wall.

Andrey Kortunov, who runs the Kremlin-backed Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow, sees it, too. “President Putin wants to end this whole thing as fast as possible,” he told CNN.

Putin’s recent heavy-handed conscription drive for 300,000 troops won’t reverse his battlefield losses any time soon, and is backfiring at home, running him up a dangerous political tab.

Read the full analysis:

8287044 30.09.2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a ceremony of signing the agreements that will formally reunite Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) with Russia at the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia.

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