Hey, everyone. I'm David Chalian, CNN's Political Director. And welcome to the CNN Political Briefing. When America votes on Tuesday, one thing I'm eager to look at in the exit polls is the gender gap. The gender gap is nothing new in American politics. But we've seen throughout this election cycle that the divide this year between how American men and women vote could be historic. This is the first presidential election since Roe vs. Wade was overturned, putting abortion front and center. And for the second time, this is a race between Donald Trump and a woman who could potentially become America's first female president. In the final days of her campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris has continued to speak directly to women, especially on the issue of abortion.

I see the promise of America in all of you. In all of you. I see it in the women who refuse to accept a future without reproductive freedom.

Celinda Lake is a Democratic strategist and pollster. She's focused a lot during her career on women's issues and women voters. And she thinks gender is a huge factor in this election. She joins me this week to discuss what she describes as a "gender chasm" and how it could play out on Tuesday. Celinda, thank you so much for joining me. Really appreciate it.

Thank you for having me. It's great to be here.

So obviously, you have a ton of experience in talking to voters in presidential elections, and you have specifically tons of experience looking at female voters. And I just want to understand where you think this election is as it relates to the gender gap that we hear so much about. And just so our listeners know, when we refer to a gender gap, we mean the difference between sort of Trump's support with male voters and Harris's support with female voters. That is the gap. And in places where they are equally supported by those various genders, the race is very close. But in places where Harris can overcome his advantage with male voters with her advantage with female voters, you see her edging ahead. So where does that leave the power of the female vote in this, in this race, do you think?

'Well, in some ways, it's up to the women, and the race will be decided by women. The formula for victory for Harris is to win women by more than she loses men. And that was the best, David, that was the best explanation of the gender gap I've ever heard. So, thank you. And the gap is particularly big between college-educated women and non-college-educated men. If the books are all about Mars and Venus, well, this is Pluto and Mercury. It's obviously a game, as you noted, of whack a mole. Like you have to hold men in range enough so that you can win with women. Now there are more women voters, and women turn out and register at higher rates. There has been a real surge of registration, particularly of younger women voters, pro-choice women, unmarried women, whether they have cats or not. There is an advantage, an innate advantage, for the person who has the lead with women. And that's why you see both sides at the end targeting older, non-college-educated women, but also trying to maximize their advantages with their base.

It's interesting and perhaps not terribly surprising, but I still find it interesting, given what you're saying, that this election really could be up to the women. Kamala Harris has very clearly not been sort of leading with the fact that she would be the first female president of the United States of America. That's not like her main calling card in this election in any way. I mean, it's obviously a true fact. And I know that, you know, obviously voters know that. But it hasn't been sort of part of the package that she's putting forward in her messaging throughout this campaign, nor here at the end. Do you think it would help her if she sort of leaned into that history a bit more or you see the reasons why she's not?

'I see the reasons why she's not. First of all, it's pretty obvious she is a woman. And then I think in the post-Dobbs environment, the issue that's really fueling the gender gap is abortion. And that's what's really motivating those younger women, for example, to register in record high numbers and pro-choice women in general to register and turn out and record high numbers. Right after the Dobbs decision, for example, in Kansas, younger women soared in their registration. 70% of the new registrants were for women, and younger women turned out at higher rates than every group of men. It's fueled the gender gap, and it's going to be a record gender gap. It's fueled by having a woman candidate. The other — because Hillary Clinton was the second biggest gender gap. The other thing that's fueling the gender gap is the style and the message of the Trump-Vance ticket. And you've probably heard Trump yesterday said, even if women don't want to be protected, I'm going to protect them. Well, this is becoming a fundamental issue about control and independence and respect and style. And I think the Madison Square Garden speech and the comedian and then comments like this are really driving this gender chasm.

'Celinda what are you seeing, whether in focus groups or in survey research that you have been part of or been looking at about this appeal to perhaps moderate and Republican women? And perhaps it is more college-educated, like you were saying, but sort of the Liz Cheney of it all, right?That we saw Vice President Harris go on the road to those three critical blue wall battleground states last week with former Congresswoman Cheney. And it was clearly geared towards trying to bring some Republican women into the fold. And yet, I don't see — and correct me if I'm wrong, if you see something different — overall, not just with women, but with voters overall, I don't see Harris performing with Republicans at some higher-than-expected level. And so I'm wondering, do you think this appeal to moderate or Republican women is A, a worthy pursuit for her and the Nikki Haley voters in the like? And B, are you seeing any evidence of it actually showing up somewhere and working?

'So, the women who are staying Republican in their party identification, their self-identification, are very solidly behind Trump. And Trump does have — there are Trump women. But the women...

Lots and lots of them, we should note.

Millions of them. But Liz Cheney appeals to the women who will say things like, I've always been a Republican. I used to be a Republican. I was a Republican until. And she gives a permission structure just as she herself has taken a position outside the MAGA Republicans, so they want to take a position outside the MAGA Republicans, and they tend to identify more as independents or moderate women, as you say. These women also want less conflict. They're very upset by January 6th and a repeat of that, they're very upset by the threat to democracy, and they include in that the abortion issue, but other issues as well. So Liz Cheney and that whole messaging and Haley herself talks about the manosphere and the brosphere — it's a very important part of that strategy.

'You've referenced, obviously, abortion rights here as a key component to this. Can you talk to what you saw in '22 when we had the midterm elections that were immediately post-Dobbs? And I guess my question to you is, is it still as potent an issue two years on from the Dobbs decision as it proved to be in the midterms? More potent, less potent? I'm just curious what your assessment is of the impact of that Supreme Court decision still in our politics.

'It's very potent. And I think that the stories that are coming out of the states that have banned abortion or have a six-week ban, Texas being at the top of the list, are very, very salient to women. It's remained its intensity with women in particular. And people constantly ask me, David, is the abortion issue getting old? Is the abortion issue getting old? And I always say to them, well, as long as sex isn't getting old, no, the abortion issue is not getting old, particularly to women. They are voting it. And the more that they hear about what's happened to women — and then the Project 2025 agenda tracking women and women's pregnancies and menstrual cycles and going after birth control and going after IVF, these things were just way too far in voters' minds, and it kept the issue alive. And after Roe v. Wade had been overturned, voters were flabbergasted that there were additional measures in Project 2025's agenda.

We're going to take a quick break. We'll have a lot more with Celinda Lake in just a moment.

Welcome back. We're here with Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake. Celinda, we talked about the education divide a little bit, but what about the racial divide do you see among women? In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost white women to Donald Trump. Do you anticipate Harris is on track to also lose white women to Donald Trump? And will that be by a lesser or greater margin than you think Hillary Clinton did? And what do you see in sort of the racial gap within the female vote?

'So, the racial gap is very big in the female vote, and it's accentuated by being a woman of color. I think that Democrats always lose white women, but the issue is they lose white men by lots more than they lose white women, and white women are not monolithic. We will undoubtedly carry, for example, white unmarried women under 55. And that was before Vance got into his observations. We will carry, or are very likely to carry, white younger women. So, there are groups of white women that we will carry, but we will have a record high support among African American women and African American women where there at hello. And they were telling African American men, don't even come home if you don't vote for Harris. College-educated white women are voting in record numbers for Harris. And in fact, we always have an effort on our side and we had it with Hillary, to keep white, blue-collar women from voting the same way as their husbands. The Republicans have launched this year an effort to keep white college-educated men from voting the same way as their wives.

It's so interesting you say that because it's exactly where I wanted to go with you. There's an actual ad campaign that I have seen which has white women walking into a polling place with their Republican husbands.

Your turn, honey.

In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want.

'They aren't giving the impression that they're going to join forces with their husbands and vote for Trump. And then you see them in the privacy of their own ballot, make their selection, and then walk out with sort of a knowing nod to each other, even though they didn't say to their husbands that they've voted — first of all, it's so bizarre to talk about like, you know, as if women have to be deferential in some way to their husbands. But I've heard some arguments from like right-wing supporters of Trump like Charlie Kirk and others saying this is upending our culture, that women are being told it's okay to have their own perspective, and they don't need to share with their husbands what their vote is. But that messaging is fascinating to me. And again, it goes back to what you were saying about the permission structure and what you were just saying. What is that and how difficult is that to convince some of these women that they can do something in private and not have to say anything about it if they're feeling either pressure at home or social pressure around their vote?

'Well, part of it is rooted in a presumption of greater expertise. So I can't tell you, even as a pollster, when we call women or canvassers that meet women on the doors, they will say, oh you should be talking to my husband. He knows a lot more about this than I do. And the husbands definitely presume that they have more information. And during the Hillary Clinton race, they would say things like, honey, we're not Hillary voters. We're Trump voters, Benghazi, Benghazi or whatever. So there's that presumption of information, and you said part of the message, David. It's very important to reinforce to these women, you have your own way of doing things. You take a 360-degree view; you have your own sources of information — and providing women with that information. The second thing that's important is to tell women that their vote is private and that no one ever knows how you voted. They know whether you voted but not who you voted for. And finally, it's important to empower women and say you're voting for your family. You're voting for what's best for your family. Women won't vote for themselves, too bad, but they will vote for what's best for their family, their daughters, their granddaughters, and their communities. That message structure is very, very important. Married couples tend to vote the same way because they share values. Otherwise they don't say married that long.

Cycle after cycle, Celinda, there are, you know, pundits and pollsters out there that try to identify the swing vote in the electorate. And, you know, back in 2004, in the Bush reelect, it was the soccer mom or the security mom as sort of the suburban female voter that would swing things. But time and again, it has been and you just said how women think about voting if not for themselves, their family. And a lot of that sometimes involves economic security as a huge component of that. And we see Donald Trump leading on the economy. And though of late, I would say Harris has narrowed that gap a bit, but clearly still running behind on what is still issue number one and may be for female voters who are thinking about, like you just said, voting for my family, that the economy may trump the abortion rights argument. And does that present a challenge for Harris with these voters?

'It does present a challenge, and it's one she's really leaned into. Her economic agenda has probably had more for women and been more geared toward women in a number of ways. First, she's really put the voice of women first, and so did Biden in 2020 — had a lot of women-owned small businesses, for example, in his ads. She had, she started out this whole messaging of he'll be for the — Trump will be for the wealthy, he'll give them a new tax break. I'm not wealthy. Started that out with women. Now she's got blue-collar men in those ads, but they started out with women. The whole caregiving agenda really, really salient to women, that women are also very, very responsive to the idea of Medicare helping to pay for parents to stay at home in their homes, and then older women very responsive to that because they want to stay in their homes. And then if you notice her ads, she's ending on a strong I'm going to protect Social Security and Medicare, very much geared toward older women. So, her economic message and the concreteness of that, the idea of $26,000 for your kids' home, $50,000 to start a small business. A lot of women want to start a small business, but they don't want a $5 million loan, they want a small investment so that they can get started on something on Etsy or whatever. So she's really got an economic message tailored to trying to say, I see you, and I'm going to do something for you and your family.

Yeah, I don't think it was a mistake that she rolled out the whole sandwich generation policies on The View when she went on The View, right?

Exactly.

Yeah. I guess I want to leave with this question for you. You said this is likely to be the largest gender gap we've seen in an election. Is there any return from that at this point? I mean, you know, in history here, where did — when did the gender gap first sort of present itself? Has it been growing irreversibly ever since it has presented itself? And are we just destined to become a nation where what your gender is like defines your politics going forward?

'Well, it started in 1980, and it started with Ronald Reagan. And women were more opposed to the cuts in social safety net programs. Women were more supportive of a role for government than men, which has been one of the persistent underwritings of this gender gap. And women were much more concerned that Reagan would get us into war than men were. They liked his more muscular presence. And then it's continued. It tends to be the biggest when there are women candidates. So, Joe Biden actually closed the gender gap slightly because he did better than Hillary had done and, frankly, than Harris will probably do with men, particularly blue-collar white men. But they're really accentuating the women's vote. And, again, there are components of that — the unmarried women, the college-educated women, the younger women who are becoming base Democratic constituents.

Celinda Lake, it is always a pleasure to talk to you. Thanks for sharing your insights. I am sure you will be tracking these results closely next week as the votes come in. And I'd love to hear from you again on what you make of it all. Thanks for spending time with us.

Thanks so much for having me. These are great conversations.

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