On Wednesday night, Donald Trump picked a favorite in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race, endorsing 2020 House candidate Sean Parnell.
“Sean is a great candidate, who got robbed in his congressional run in the Crime of the Century – the 2020 Presidential Election Scam,” Trump said, repeating the Big Lie that the 2020 election was somehow fraudulent. “Sean Parnell will always put America First. He has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”
Parnell is one of eight Republicans running in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. It very much remains to be seen if he is the strongest of those candidates; Parnell lost his 2020 challenge to Rep. Conor Lamb (D) 51%-49% in a western Pennsylvania district where Joe Biden edged Trump 51% to 48%.
Whether or not Parnell gives Republicans the best chance of holding the seat in 2022 is now somewhat moot. Trump’s endorsement – particularly in a field of largely unknown Republican candidates – makes Parnell the clear front-runner. And, with Trump having already weighed in on Parnell’s behalf, the chances of another, possibly more electable, candidate jumping into the race are infinitesimally small.
The Parnell endorsement is far from a singular event. Trump, seeking to grow his brand of national populism and keep his death grip on the GOP, has jumped into any number of Senate races set for next fall. Among them:
* Former NFL football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race
* Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina
* Rep. Mo Brooks in Alabama
* Former Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska
Trump has also urged Sen. Ron Johnson to run for another term in Wisconsin – although the incumbent Republican has yet to make up his mind on whether he will do so. He is also actively considering the candidates in two more Senate open seats in Ohio and Missouri.
All of this activity by Trump runs directly counter to what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConell and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the chairman of the Senate Republican campaign arm, were hoping Trump would do in the coming midterm elections.
Scott has made it repeatedly clear – to the consternation of some establishment Republicans – that neither he nor the National Republican Senatorial Committee that he leads will pick sides in the looming primary fights across the country. The only concession Scott has made to that non-endorsement strategy is his pledge to back incumbent senators seeking reelection. That puts him at odds with Trump in Alaska, where Tshibaka is challenging Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
McConnell has been more outspoken on the need for the party to back candidates with the best chance of winning a general election. “My goal is, in every way possible, to have nominees representing the Republican Party who can win in November,” McConnell said in March. “The only thing I care about is electability.”
The tensions between McConnell and Trump are already high.
“I have quietly said for years that Mitch McConnell is the most overrated man in politics—now I don’t have to be quiet anymore,” Trump said last month in response to McConnell’s support for a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package.
McConnell, while he voted against impeaching Trump for the then-President’s role in the January 6 insurrection, blasted him in a speech on the Senate floor shortly after the vote. “There is no question, none, that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day,” McConnell said.
Trump’s activity in Senate races poses a major challenge for McConnell and Scott. Do they continue to stay out of most of these primaries, believing that the best candidate – whether or not that is the person Trump has chosen – will wind up winning anyway? Or do they endorse who they believe the best general election candidate to be – even if that candidate is not who Trump is standing behind?
Trump’s continued sway over the base of the Republican Party suggests that even if McConnell (or Scott) get involved in a primary against his chosen candidate, they will likely lose. Which means they just may be left with nothing more than a gamble and a hope that Trump’s picks wind up being electable next November.
And that is a BIG risk for a party only a single seat away from retaking the majority in the Senate.
