Will North Korea’s next missile test have a nuclear warhead?

Could North Korea actually put a nuclear warhead atop a rocket and fire it at a potential adversary?

Some still doubt North Korea can make a warhead small enough, or miniaturize it enough, to mount atop a missile. But that’s what North Korea said it proved Friday.

South Korean monitors said Friday’s nuclear test had a yield equivalent to 10 kilotons of TNT, which would make it North Korea’s most powerful of five tests to date.

That blast came just days after North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles, which landed in Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, about 155 miles (250 kilometers) from a Japanese island. Last month, a missile fired from a submarine also landed in the same zone.

‘A major concern for the region’

“They’ve been demonstrating not just the ability to cause a nuclear detonation, but to mount it and turn it into a weapon,” said John Delury, an assistant professor of East Asian studies at Yonsei University in South Korea.

“If there’s evidence that they can do that – or they have done that – then this is a major concern for the region,” Alexander Neill, a North Korea expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia, said.

Friday’s nuclear test was North Korea’s second this year, something that shows North Korea is “mastering the technology,” said Lassina Zerbo, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization.

But analysts say there’s no way to determine the extent of North Korea’s missile technology until they actually use it.

A new type of intermediate-range missile, the Pukguksong-2, was launched by North Korea on February 12.

It was their first launch since US President Donald Trump took office.

Images published by North Korean state media purport to show a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula on Saturday, April 23, 2016. Five days later, South Korea claims the North launched two more missiles on April 28 that failed.

In March, 2016, state media says Pyongyang has miniaturized nuclear warheads.

On February 9, 2016 South Korea's Defense Ministry releases images of debris believed to be a part of North Korean rocket, which was launched on February 7. Pyongyang said it had successfully launched Earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4 into orbit.

On January 6, North Korea claims to have successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. Seismic waves indicate an "artificial earthquake" near Punggye-ri, North Korea's main nuclear testing site.

On May 9, 2015, North Korea state media reports the country has successfully fired a "cutting-edge" anti-ship missile from a submarine.

North Korea test-fired a new "ultra-precision" intelligent rocket to be deployed across its navy, the state-run Korean Central News Agency said on February 7, 2015.

North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on February 12, 2013 -- the first under Kim Jong Un. The nuclear test site and water cooling plant are seen in this satellite image.

This picture from KCNA on December 12, 2012 shows the North Korean rocket Unha-3, carrying the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, lifting off from the launching pad in North Korea.

A missile is displayed during a military parade to mark 100 years since the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.

This undated file picture released by KCNA on January 5, 2009 shows an artillery unit conducting a drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea.

North Korea's weapons tests

Prev Next

“We can’t learn anything about the physical size of the device,” said Melissa Hanham, senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California.

“My deep fear is that they will launch a live nuclear weapon on one of their missiles,” Hanham said. “It would be hard for Japan, China, the US, to know that it was a test and not the real thing. … That would be extremely dangerous as that could trigger a war.”

Video Ad Feedback

What is THAAD?

00:48 - Source: CNN

How should the world respond?

Reaction was swift and harsh around the world after Friday’s test with the United States, Russia, South Korea, and even China, with whom North Korea shares a border and a long but frayed diplomatic relationship, denouncing it.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called Friday’s test “a significant threat to the safety of our country.”

Christopher Hill, the former US ambassador to South Korea, said Friday it’s time to stop guessing about North Korea’s capabilities and start planning a response.

“Before long, I think they’re going to have a nuclear warhead on a missile and we have to look really carefully and see what we’re going to do,” said Hill, who was the top U.S. diplomat in Seoul from 2004 to 2005.

Hill said the world can’t expect North Korea to bow to further sanctions or even be open to new negotiations over its nuclear program.

“I wouldn’t make bets on whether Kim Jong Un would be a reasonable guy,” Hill said. “I don’t put it past them to threaten countries and suggest that they will be prepared to launch a nuclear strike.”

Working with China?

The solution may come in an alliance with China, said Hill, who was also assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs from 2005 to 2009.

“I think we need to sit down with the Chinese … and say together we need to solve this,” Hill said of North Korea’s weapons program. “What direct means we can take to either slow it down or kill it?”

Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, an organization that aims to eliminate nuclear weapons, also said the world cannot delay a response to North Korea’s testing.

“Unless we figure out a way to deal with North Korea and stop their activity, at some point in the near future they’re going to have a relatively sophisticated nuclear arsenal that is capable of hitting the United States and that is a huge problem,” Yun said.

CNN’s Emiko Jozuka, Faith Karimi and Josh Berlinger contributed to this report.