What to watch in Kentucky, Oregon

If Bernie Sanders is going to catch Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to narrow the delegate gap – significantly – on Tuesday night.

Two Democratic presidential primaries are taking place: Kentucky, with 55 pledged delegates up for grabs, and Oregon, with 61 delegates. Kentucky also has five additional superdelegates and Oregon an additional 13, but those are not specifically at stake Tuesday.

For Sanders, erasing Clinton’s lead in pledged delegates (currently 1,722 to 1,424) will take winning about two-thirds of those that remain. That’s to say nothing of Clinton’s huge edge among superdelegates – a project Sanders is saving for later.

Hillary Clinton accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 28, 2016. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major political party.

Before marrying Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here she attends Wellesley College in Massachusetts. Her commencement speech at Wellesley's graduation ceremony in 1969 attracted national attention. After graduating, she attended Yale Law School.

Rodham was a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee, whose work led to impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in 1974.

In 1975, Rodham married Bill Clinton, whom she met at Yale Law School. He became the governor of Arkansas in 1978. In 1980, the couple had a daughter, Chelsea.

Arkansas' first lady, now using the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, wears her inaugural ball gown in 1985.

The Clintons celebrate Bill's inauguration in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1991. He was governor from 1983 to 1992, when he was elected President.

Bill Clinton comforts his wife on the set of "60 Minutes" after a stage light broke loose from the ceiling and knocked her down in January 1992.

In June 1992, Clinton uses a sewing machine designed to eliminate back and wrist strain. She had just given a speech at a convention of the International Ladies' Garment Workers Union.

During the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton jokes with her husband's running mate, Al Gore, and Gore's wife, Tipper, aboard a campaign bus.

Clinton accompanies her husband as he takes the oath of office in January 1993.

The Clintons share a laugh on Capitol Hill in 1993.

Clinton unveils the renovated Blue Room of the White House in 1995.

Clinton waves to the media in January 1996 as she arrives for an appearance before a grand jury in Washington. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas. The Clintons' business investment was investigated, but ultimately they were cleared of any wrongdoing.

The Clintons hug as Bill is sworn in for a second term as President.

The first lady holds up a Grammy Award, which she won for her audiobook "It Takes a Village" in 1997.

The Clintons dance on a beach in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 1998. Later that month, Bill Clinton was accused of having a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton looks on as her husband discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998. Clinton declared, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." In August of that year, Clinton testified before a grand jury and admitted to having "inappropriate intimate contact" with Lewinsky, but he said it did not constitute sexual relations because they had not had intercourse. He was impeached in December on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.

The first family walks with their dog, Buddy, as they leave the White House for a vacation in August 1998.

President Clinton makes a statement at the White House in December 1998, thanking members of Congress who voted against his impeachment. The Senate trial ended with an acquittal in February 1999.

Clinton announces in February 2000 that she will seek the U.S. Senate seat in New York. She was elected later that year.

Clinton makes her first appearance on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee.

Sen. Clinton comforts Maren Sarkarat, a woman who lost her husband in the September 11 terrorist attacks, during a ground-zero memorial in October 2001.

Clinton holds up her book "Living History" before a signing in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in 2003.

Clinton and another presidential hopeful, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, applaud at the start of a Democratic debate in 2007.

Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, in June 2008. She had recently ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Obama.

Obama is flanked by Clinton and Vice President-elect Joe Biden at a news conference in Chicago in December 2008. He had designated Clinton to be his secretary of state.

Clinton, as secretary of state, greets Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a meeting just outside Moscow in March 2010.

The Clintons pose on the day of Chelsea's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky in July 2010.

In this photo provided by the White House, Obama, Clinton, Biden and other members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

Clinton checks her Blackberry inside a military plane after leaving Malta in October 2011. In 2015, The New York Times reported that Clinton exclusively used a personal email account during her time as secretary of state. The account, fed through its own server, raises security and preservation concerns. Clinton later said she used a private domain out of "convenience," but admits in retrospect "it would have been better" to use multiple emails.

Clinton arrives for a group photo before a forum with the Gulf Cooperation Council in March 2012. The forum was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Obama and Clinton bow during the transfer-of-remains ceremony marking the return of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who were killed in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012.

Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at a recycling trade conference in Las Vegas in 2014.

Clinton, now running for President again, performs with Jimmy Fallon during a "Tonight Show" skit in September 2015.

Clinton testifies about the Benghazi attack during a House committee meeting in October 2015. "I would imagine I have thought more about what happened than all of you put together," she said during the 11-hour hearing. "I have lost more sleep than all of you put together. I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been done." Months earlier, Clinton had acknowledged a "systemic breakdown" as cited by an Accountability Review Board, and she said that her department was taking additional steps to increase security at U.S. diplomatic facilities.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders shares a lighthearted moment with Clinton during a Democratic presidential debate in October 2015. It came after Sanders gave his take on the Clinton email scandal. "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."

Clinton is reflected in a teleprompter during a campaign rally in Alexandria, Virginia, in October 2015.

Clinton walks on her stage with her family after winning the New York primary in April.

After Clinton became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, this photo was posted to her official Twitter account. "To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want -- even president," Clinton said. "Tonight is for you."

Obama hugs Clinton after he gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The president said Clinton was ready to be commander in chief. "For four years, I had a front-row seat to her intelligence, her judgment and her discipline," he said, referring to her stint as his secretary of state.

Clinton arrives at a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York on September 11. Clinton, who was diagnosed with pneumonia two days before, left early after feeling ill. A video appeared to show her stumble as Secret Service agents helped her into a van.

Clinton addresses a campaign rally in Cleveland on November 6, two days before Election Day. She went on to lose Ohio -- and the election -- to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

After conceding the presidency to Trump in a phone call earlier, Clinton addresses supporters and campaign workers in New York on Wednesday, November 9. Her defeat marked a stunning end to a campaign that appeared poised to make her the first woman elected US president.

Hillary Clinton's life in the spotlight

Prev Next

Here’s what to watch in Tuesday’s contests:

1. Can Clinton win?

Kentucky should be a good state for Clinton. Her husband was the last Democrat to carry it in a general election, in 1992 and 1996, and she beat then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama there in 2008.

READ: Changing superdelegate rules would still leave Sanders behind

video

Related video Clinton mocks Trump in hypothetical debate

In an attempt to avoid her mistakes in Indiana (where Sanders spent nearly $2 million to Clinton’s $0 on the airwaves, and Sanders narrowly won), the Democratic front-runner has invested more time and money in the Bluegrass State.

She’s held 11 campaign events over three visits in a two-week span.

“Everybody’s ready to go vote,” Clinton said in Paducah on Monday. “I’ll tell you this: I’m not going to give up on Kentucky in November.”

But Clinton’s campaigned hard and still lost before – most notably in Michigan.

Clinton knows that with a big delegate lead, wins in states like Kentucky could turn Sanders’ efforts to catch her from improbable to impossible. As soon as she can do that, she can turn her attention fully to presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump – a pivot Clinton has wanted to make for two months.

2. Sanders needs to win – big

Sanders, meanwhile, will have his eyes on Oregon, a culturally liberal West Coast state where he’ll need to rack up a massive margin of victory – and hope it’ll foreshadow similar results on June 7 in California.

US Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks during a rally in Atlantic City, New Jersey, on May 9, 2016. / AFP / Jewel SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

video

Related video The math doesn't favor Bernie Sanders, despite wins

Since a blowout in Kentucky is unlikely, the Vermont senator will need to crush Clinton out West.

It’ll have to start with a win in Oregon. Then, he’ll need to pick up smaller states like Montana and North Dakota – and top it off with a big win in California.

“Here in North Dakota and the remaining seven other states we’re going to have to win about 65% of the pledged delegates. Right now were at about 45.5%. I want to be at 50% plus one,” he said Friday in Fargo, North Dakota. “So that’s task No. 1.”

3. How Obama helps Clinton in Kentucky

To understand why Clinton could win Kentucky on Tuesday, consider the state’s recent history in gubernatorial elections.

Then-Gov. Steve Beshear, a popular Democrat even in the red state, embraced Obama’s Affordable Care Act, and his implementation served as a national model. He’s been succeeded by Republican Matt Bevin, who has set out to dismantle everything Beshear built, but also seen his approval ratings decline.

Kentucky is a culturally conservative state with a history of electing moderate Democrats to statewide offices. That history – combined with Clinton campaigning as the protector of the Obama (and Beshear) legacy – will aid her in a state where bigger liberal programs like Sanders’ Medicare-for-all proposal seem especially out of reach.

Another factor working in Clinton’s favor: Kentucky is a closed primary, which means only registered Democrats can participate – not the independents Sanders has so successfully brought into the voting booth elsewhere.

She’ll look to run up a significant margin in Jefferson County, home of Louisville and much of Kentucky’s African-American population.

4. The GOP race is over

There’s nothing to watch on the Republican side on Tuesday.

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 03: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump arrive to speak to supporters at Trump Tower in Manhattan following his victory in the Indiana primary on May 03, 2016 in New York City. Trump beat rival Ted Cruz decisively in a contest that many analysts believe was the last chance for any other Republican candidate to catch Trump in the delegate count. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

video

Related video Donald Trump: London mayor made 'rude statements'

Sure, Oregon is holding a GOP primary, too. But Ohio Gov. John Kasich – who less than a month ago struck a deal with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to get a one-on-one showdown with Donald Trump there – has already dropped out of the race.

Kasich: I’m not endorsing Trump yet — or serving as his VP

The only question to keep an eye on is whether Oregon Republicans will attempt to sending a message by refusing to vote for Trump.

Still, Oregon is on pace to break the 1 million vote mark for only the second time in its history in a primary – with 2008, when Obama and Clinton were still competing, being the first.

5. Rand Paul’s mistake

It was early 2015, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul had a problem: He knew he was running for president – but he also knew Kentucky state law prohibited from hedging his bets by staying on the ballot for re-election to the Senate, too.

So he came up with an alternative. Paul raised and paid $250,000 to have Kentucky scrap its Republican presidential primary (originally set for Tuesday) in favor of caucuses to be held March 5.

The problem: Paul didn’t last even close to long enough to compete in Kentucky’s presidential caucuses.

The money was a waste, and now, Paul is on the ballot for a second term in the Senate.

That’s why in Kentucky, only Democrats will vote Tuesday.