Chinese military jets fly over Beijing on August 23, 2015 during a dress rehearsal for a military parade to commemorate the end of World War II in Asia. The parade will take place on September 3.
Chinese military jets fly over Beijing on August 23, 2015 during a dress rehearsal for a military parade to commemorate the end of World War II in Asia. The parade will take place on September 3.
ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images
Chinese military helicopters dot the sky on August 23. According to state news agency Xinhua, a total of 12,000 troops, 500 pieces of equipment, and nearly 200 aircraft will be shown on September 3.
Chinese military helicopters dot the sky on August 23. According to state news agency Xinhua, a total of 12,000 troops, 500 pieces of equipment, and nearly 200 aircraft will be shown on September 3.
WANG ZHAO/AFP/Getty Images
Chinese military helicopters fly over the Forbidden City in Beijing on August 23. Most of the armaments that will go on display during the parade won't have been seen by the public before, Xinhua reported.
Chinese military helicopters fly over the Forbidden City in Beijing on August 23. Most of the armaments that will go on display during the parade won't have been seen by the public before, Xinhua reported.
ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images
China's military parade is to mark the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender, or the Victory over Japan Day, in 1945.
China's military parade is to mark the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender, or the Victory over Japan Day, in 1945.
Shen Lu/CNN
People's Liberation Army soldiers stand to attention in their combat fatigues on August 22.
People's Liberation Army soldiers stand to attention in their combat fatigues on August 22.
Shen Lu/CNN
Chen Hai, 29, is a lieutenant in a company that fought against the Japanese. He said he is proud to be selected to attend the parade.
Chen Hai, 29, is a lieutenant in a company that fought against the Japanese. He said he is proud to be selected to attend the parade.
Shen Lu/CNN
China's female guards of honor will attend the military parade on September 3 for the first time. In this picture, female soldiers of the People's Liberation Army attend a training session at a military base in Beijing on August 22.
China's female guards of honor will attend the military parade on September 3 for the first time. In this picture, female soldiers of the People's Liberation Army attend a training session at a military base in Beijing on August 22.
Shen Lu/CNN
The average height of female soldiers in the military parade is 1.78 meters. They have to undergo 8 hours of training every day for three months.
The average height of female soldiers in the military parade is 1.78 meters. They have to undergo 8 hours of training every day for three months.
Shen Lu/CNN
Cheng Cheng, a female squadron commander, told a group of reporters that the toughest part for female honor guards is to hold on to the heavy rifles while standing. The rifles weigh 7.17 pounds.
Cheng Cheng, a female squadron commander, told a group of reporters that the toughest part for female honor guards is to hold on to the heavy rifles while standing. The rifles weigh 7.17 pounds.
Shen Lu/CNN
Cheng Cheng says a total of 62 servicewomen from the army, navy and air force will march alongside 145 male guards of honor.
Cheng Cheng says a total of 62 servicewomen from the army, navy and air force will march alongside 145 male guards of honor.
Shen Lu/CNN
Blisters become the enemy when wearing leather military boots every day.
Blisters become the enemy when wearing leather military boots every day.
Shen Lu/CNN
Soldiers line up during the large-scale rehearsal. Every soldier will have to stand still for up to two hours without changing form.
Soldiers line up during the large-scale rehearsal. Every soldier will have to stand still for up to two hours without changing form.
Shen Lu/CNN
A female soldier stands in front of a billboard featuring Chinese president Xi Jinping on August 22.
A female soldier stands in front of a billboard featuring Chinese president Xi Jinping on August 22.
Shen Lu/CNN
During the rehearsal, reporters were also given rare access to a military training base in Beijing. A dorm room is pictured here.
During the rehearsal, reporters were also given rare access to a military training base in Beijing. A dorm room is pictured here.
Shen Lu/CNN
Soldiers' uniforms hang neatly in their dorm room closet on August 22.
Soldiers' uniforms hang neatly in their dorm room closet on August 22.
Shen Lu/CNN
Beijing gears up for massive military parade

Editor’s Note: Tate Nurkin is the Senior Director, Strategic Assessments and Futures Studies with IHS Aerospace, Defense and Security. He is also a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Nuclear Security. The views expressed here are solely his.

Story highlights

Parade is rare opportunity for PLA watchers to assess country's military hardware

They will be watching for ballistic missiles, vertical take-off fighter jet

Capabilities may signal new threats for U.S, Japan and Taiwan

CNN  — 

On Thursday, 12,000 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops, between 100 - 200 aircraft and about 500 pieces of military equipment will participate in a military parade in the Chinese capital commemorating the 70th anniversary of the surrender of regional rival Japan to end World War II.

The parade is designed to send various messages to domestic and foreign audiences — including the United States and to regional rivals like Japan and Taiwan, both of which are engaged in territorial or sovereignty disputes with China.

The claim by government spokesman Qu Rui that 84% of the equipment on display will have “never been viewed by the public” has amplified the ‘buzz’ around the event, though many of the capabilities involved in the parade will likely be familiar to some degree to defense and intelligence communities monitoring China’s military..

Still, the lifting of the curtain – even for a few hours – on China’s frequently opaque military modernization program will keep PLA watchers busy for weeks to come assessing the incremental evolutions and stark leaps forward in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), amphibious assault, military space and counter-space, unmanned systems and land systems capabilities.

All of which are critical to China’s modernization program and to pursuing territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.

EXCLUSIVE: China warns U.S. surveillance plane

‘Game-changing missiles’

Tate Nurkin
Tate Nurkin

China’s development of more, better and a wider variety of ballistic and cruise missiles is of particular concern for the U.S., Japan and, especially, Taiwan, at which IHS Jane’s estimates approximately 1,100 Chinese short-range ballistic missiles are targeted.

Indeed, the 2014 U.S. Department of Defense Quadrennial Defense Review asserted that “growing numbers of accurate conventional ballistic and cruise missile threats represent an additional cost-imposing challenge to U.S. and partner naval forces and land installations” across the Western Pacific.

This missile threat complicates U.S. power projection efforts while also raising the possibility that current missile defense systems of regional allies and partners could be overwhelmed by clusters of Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles fired from land, air and sea.

Given their strategic and operational importance, missiles are certain to play a prominent role in the parade. State news agency Xinhua, has already noted that “the scale and number of missiles (on display) will surpass any previous outing.”

Speculation about specific systems that may appear in the parade has concentrated on the DF-16, a newly developed short-range ballistic missile and the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), known as the ‘carrier killer’, among others.

The operational status of the DF-21D is uncertain outside the PLA, but the ASBM capability, especially when targeted against aircraft carriers, is novel and potentially game-changing.

The JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile, thought to be nearing deployment, enhances the range of China’s strategic at-sea deterrent and plausibly changes the calculus of U.S.-China nuclear deterrence.

Whatever the final mix of missiles included in the parade, observers will be looking closely at the contour and dimensions of missiles to determine improvements in range, speed, mobility and survivability of the systems.

In the heart of Hong Kong, a former British colony, sits an unmistakable symbol of the city's Chinese rule, now in its 18th year: The barracks of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
In the heart of Hong Kong, a former British colony, sits an unmistakable symbol of the city's Chinese rule, now in its 18th year: The barracks of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Every year, on July 1 -- the anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to Chinese control, the PLA allows some of the city's residents to look inside the secretive base.
Every year, on July 1 -- the anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to Chinese control, the PLA allows some of the city's residents to look inside the secretive base.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
It's an unusual military display next to Hong Kong's typically placid harbor.
It's an unusual military display next to Hong Kong's typically placid harbor.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Soldiers perform a drill not far from the International Commerce Center (ICC), the city's tallest skyscraper.
Soldiers perform a drill not far from the International Commerce Center (ICC), the city's tallest skyscraper.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Around 6,000 PLA troops are believed to be stationed throughout multiple bases in Hong Kong. So far, they have never been sent into action in the territory.
Around 6,000 PLA troops are believed to be stationed throughout multiple bases in Hong Kong. So far, they have never been sent into action in the territory.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Hong Kong's special status as a Chinese territory with a semi-autonomous government has been a constant source of tension in the city. Surveys show fewer residents, especially young people, identify as Chinese.
Hong Kong's special status as a Chinese territory with a semi-autonomous government has been a constant source of tension in the city. Surveys show fewer residents, especially young people, identify as Chinese.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
PLA soldiers here are from mainland China, and only a few speak Cantonese -- the preferred language for many Hong Kongers. Hong Kongers are not permitted to serve in the PLA.
PLA soldiers here are from mainland China, and only a few speak Cantonese -- the preferred language for many Hong Kongers. Hong Kongers are not permitted to serve in the PLA.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Typically, soldiers here keep a low profile: They never come out onto the streets of the city, and there's minimal interaction with the local population.
Typically, soldiers here keep a low profile: They never come out onto the streets of the city, and there's minimal interaction with the local population.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Hong Kong's governing Basic Law stipulates the garrison "shall not interfere in the local affairs of Hong Kong," but the Hong Kong government may request assistance from soldiers during emergencies.
Hong Kong's governing Basic Law stipulates the garrison "shall not interfere in the local affairs of Hong Kong," but the Hong Kong government may request assistance from soldiers during emergencies.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
For many Hong Kongers, the sight of PLA vehicles still evokes memories of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, when Chinese soldiers opened fire on student protesters in Beijing.
For many Hong Kongers, the sight of PLA vehicles still evokes memories of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, when Chinese soldiers opened fire on student protesters in Beijing.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
During last fall's massive pro-democracy street demonstrations, known as "Occupy'' or the "Umbrella Movement," protesters feared China might deploy its troops to restore order. But that never happened.
During last fall's massive pro-democracy street demonstrations, known as "Occupy'' or the "Umbrella Movement," protesters feared China might deploy its troops to restore order. But that never happened.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
For many Hong Kongers, the PLA's annual Open Day is their only chance to see real military equipment.
For many Hong Kongers, the PLA's annual Open Day is their only chance to see real military equipment.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Soldiers watch as children play with machine guns -- not loaded, of course.
Soldiers watch as children play with machine guns -- not loaded, of course.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Mainland Chinese visitors also come to Hong Kong every year for the special event, which does not happen in China. "The army is still a bit mysterious to us, so it is good for us to know more," one visitor told CNN.
Mainland Chinese visitors also come to Hong Kong every year for the special event, which does not happen in China. "The army is still a bit mysterious to us, so it is good for us to know more," one visitor told CNN.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Firearms are tightly controlled in Hong Kong and China -- ownership is basically restricted to police, military, and security firms.
Firearms are tightly controlled in Hong Kong and China -- ownership is basically restricted to police, military, and security firms.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
China's warships occasionally make appearances in Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor.
China's warships occasionally make appearances in Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
The inside of China's military vessels are lined with patriotic images and slogans.
The inside of China's military vessels are lined with patriotic images and slogans.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
While troop numbers remain constant, the garrison's personnel are frequently rotated in and out of Hong Kong.
While troop numbers remain constant, the garrison's personnel are frequently rotated in and out of Hong Kong.
Wilfred Chan/CNN
Hong Kong residents who attended the event expressed optimism about the city's ties with China. One told CNN the relationship should be that of a "father and children," or "lips and teeth."
Hong Kong residents who attended the event expressed optimism about the city's ties with China. One told CNN the relationship should be that of a "father and children," or "lips and teeth."
Wilfred Chan/CNN
China shows off its guns in Hong Kong

Examination of warheads will help determine what types of missions China’s next generation of missiles will carry out as well as whether the missile is capable of carrying multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) that will further stress regional missile defense systems.

Attack fleet

Military aviation platforms will also be of interest to observers in Washington and across the Western Pacific.

China’s two most well-known fifth generation fighter development programs, the J-20 and J-31 (the latter of which will eventually be made available for export) are likely to feature.

News outlets have speculated that a third fifth generation platform, the J-18, a carrier based vertical takeoff and landing fighter jet about which little is known, may make an appearance as well, emphasizing the diversity and sophistication of China’s future stealthy attack fleet and its ambitions to develop a carrier strike wing over time.

In addition, the possible inclusion of new indigenously developed capabilities such as the Y-8GX6 maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft –based on the design of China’s Y-9 transport aircraft– will reflect the importance of efforts to rebalance the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) fleet structure away from an overwhelming reliance on combat aircraft to a more balanced and mature combination of combat, surveillance and support aircraft.

This balance is expected to enable the PLAAF to drive and support operations further away from China’s borders in line with strategic objectives articulated in the May 2015 Defense White Paper.

Perhaps the most emphatic point the parade will make, though, is the demonstration of the growing capacity of China’s well-funded indigenous defense industry.

While China’s defense industry still lags behind that of the U.S. in innovation, scale and efficiency and in several important technological areas – aero-engines, for example, it has closed these gaps at a steady and significant pace over the last decade.

Thursday’s parade may well stand as an ardent reminder of this progress and as a catalyst for enhanced discussion in Washington, Tokyo and Taipei of new approaches to managing future military and geopolitical threats across the region.

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