NFL fans can feel it in their bones: this is the Buffalo Bills’ best chance of a Super Bowl winner in over 30 years. Fresh off beating the high-flying Detroit Lions in Michigan, the Bills should (famous last words) coast into the postseason.
This week, the Bills have a chance to make history against the New England Patriots. Anyone who looks at a box score or watches the games – while perhaps yelling at the television screen like I do – knows how dominant the offense has been.
It turns out the Bills offense has been great to a historic degree. The Buffalo squad, led by superstar quarterback Josh Allen, is only the fifth team ever to score 30 or more points in eight consecutive games in the same season.
This weekend, the Bills could become the first team ever in NFL history to score 30 or more points in nine consecutive games in the same season.
What makes the Bills unique amongst this group is who they’re putting up 30 or more points against. They’ve beaten three teams who are at least tied for their division lead at this point. More amazingly, they’ve beaten two teams – the Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs – who already have 12 wins on the year.
Indeed, the quality of the opponents that the Bills have defeated means they’ve already made history. None of the other teams who scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games played two teams during their streaks that went on to win at least 12 games that season.
The Bills domination of two really good teams is not the only thing that has made this streak different. It’s the way that Buffalo is scoring all these points.
When you look at the other teams with 30+ point streaks as long as the Bills’, some teams stand out, like the 2000 St. Louis Rams. That offense – aptly called “The Greatest Show on Turf” – threw the ball up and down the field with authority. The Rams were averaging 10 yards per pass attempt during their streak.
The Bills are averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, which isn’t even top of the NFL during the last eight games. It ranks last among teams who have scored 30+ points in eight straight games and well below the 9.0 yards per pass attempt average of the other four teams on the list.
Even during their last four games, when the offense has really been chugging along, the Bills are averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt. That’s certainly very good but isn’t the best in the league or even close to being historic to any degree.
The Bills are, instead, doing something really different in terms of mistakes: they rarely make any. You can see that in their best player. Allen makes his share of unbelievable passes, but this year’s Allen differs from other years in that he isn’t making many errors.
Allen rarely ever gets sacked. The Bills have allowed just five sacks in the eight consecutive games they’ve scored 30 or more points. That’s both the lowest in the league during the last eight games and the lowest of any team that has scored 30 points or more in eight straight games in history.
The Bills have turned the ball over only five times during the same stretch. That’s second lowest in the league and first for any team that has ever scored 30+ points in eight straight games.
When you don’t get behind the chains (i.e. having long distances to get first downs) and aren’t turning the ball over, good offenses will win football games.
Think about Buffalo’s two biggest wins against the Chiefs and Lions during their scoring bonanza streak. The Bills offense was handed the ball with about eight minutes left in the game in both cases.
In the Chiefs game, the Bills took about six minutes off the clock and scored a touchdown to go up two scores and basically clinch the game.
In the Lions game, Buffalo took about six minutes off the clock and scored a field goal forcing the Lions to score two touchdowns to come back. Again, they basically clinched the game.
These, what I call, “championship drives” are a big reason why the Bills remain the team to beat in the AFC, according to the New York Times playoff tracker.
If they’re able to make more history against the Patriots this week, their odds will likely climb even higher.
Favorite play of last week
I mean I could just throw the entire game up as a highlight, but I’m going to go with an unheralded play that speaks to the Bills’ ability to score points in a safe manner.
This three-yard shovel pass for a touchdown from Allen to Khalil Shakir exemplifies Buffalo so well.
It’s not a big yardage play, but it’s worth six points. Allen’s number one target is Shakir, who has dropped one pass the entire year – yes, one. No one with as many receptions as Shakir has dropped fewer passes. It’s another example of mistake-free football.
An unhappy memory
One of the things that makes the Bills so enjoyable the past few seasons is how bad they were for much of the early part of the 21st century. If they had lost against the Lions last weekend after leading by 21 points, it would have tied a record for the franchise’s biggest blown lead.
Two of those losses came during the early 2000s. Most recent of which was blowing a 21-point lead during a January 2012 game to the Patriots. The Bills led by 21 after the first quarter and then gave up 49 unanswered points.
Buffalo had started that season 3-0, 4-1 and 5-2. The team finished 6-10.
This year, the Bills will hopefully beat the Patriots twice and will definitely do better than 6-10. Things are looking up!
